New Posts For Thread: ROI Figures for Sports Bettinghttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29105683/roi-figures-for-sports-bettingI was just wondering what people deem to be an acceptable ROI for sports betting or a reasonable level that I could at least aim for. I have read on the net that some people claim 2% - 3 % is good while others say 15% and above. I imagine it is depenNice post that askari1, spot on :)https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29105683/roi-figures-for-sports-betting?post_id=519831735#519831735Nice post that askari1, spot on :)Fri, 18 May 2012 20:00:20 -0500You will need to know yr variance also. If every bet is traded off for a 2% profit, then yr interval will be narrower.In response to the original questioner, you wd be better off to ask y/s rather, 'how much money do I want to win?' and 'what kind ofhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29105683/roi-figures-for-sports-betting?post_id=519812301#519812301You will need to know yr variance also. If every bet is traded off for a 2% profit, then yr interval will be narrower.In response to the original questioner, you wd be better off to ask y/s rather, 'how much money do I want to win?' and 'what kind ofFri, 18 May 2012 09:58:59 -0500I'm afraid that I'm no stsistician either feix.But I do know that the answer is going to involve knowing the sort of prices involved in the 1000 bets you have made.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29105683/roi-figures-for-sports-betting?post_id=519808527#519808527I'm afraid that I'm no stsistician either feix.But I do know that the answer is going to involve knowing the sort of prices involved in the 1000 bets you have made.Fri, 18 May 2012 08:01:18 -0500Frog: "Because you are winning long term?"Obviously I agree with that, but what would you consider long term? If we're expecting a ROI of 2%, then the long term is indeed very long?500 bets? 1000 bets? 5000 bets? I have a ROI of about 2% over 1000 behttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29105683/roi-figures-for-sports-betting?post_id=519807025#519807025Frog: "Because you are winning long term?"Obviously I agree with that, but what would you consider long term? If we're expecting a ROI of 2%, then the long term is indeed very long?500 bets? 1000 bets? 5000 bets? I have a ROI of about 2% over 1000 beFri, 18 May 2012 07:15:52 -0500In other words, we are all in the "predicting game".https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29105683/roi-figures-for-sports-betting?post_id=519803197#519803197In other words, we are all in the "predicting game".Fri, 18 May 2012 04:22:59 -0500FAFH "the ballpark of reasonableness" also a lovely turn of phrase! Sounds like a Billy Bragg song.Back to value, and if you are winning long-term, you are finding value.Models give you probabilities, i.e. a price. Compare your price with the markethttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29105683/roi-figures-for-sports-betting?post_id=519790837#519790837FAFH "the ballpark of reasonableness" also a lovely turn of phrase! Sounds like a Billy Bragg song.Back to value, and if you are winning long-term, you are finding value.Models give you probabilities, i.e. a price. Compare your price with the marketThu, 17 May 2012 16:00:06 -0500Beg to differ.imho: probabilties are present but are not observable, and if you are is betting with probabilities on your side then you are 'getting value'.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29105683/roi-figures-for-sports-betting?post_id=519772387#519772387Beg to differ.imho: probabilties are present but are not observable, and if you are is betting with probabilities on your side then you are 'getting value'.Thu, 17 May 2012 07:20:42 -0500Of course it does. The model is used to determine probabilities. The probabilities are used to determine value against prices.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29105683/roi-figures-for-sports-betting?post_id=519770513#519770513Of course it does. The model is used to determine probabilities. The probabilities are used to determine value against prices.Thu, 17 May 2012 06:09:08 -0500value has nothing to do with a modelhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29105683/roi-figures-for-sports-betting?post_id=519768621#519768621value has nothing to do with a modelThu, 17 May 2012 04:53:08 -0500Indeed. Even mathematicians are "picking winners". They're just using a model to do so.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29105683/roi-figures-for-sports-betting?post_id=519767881#519767881Indeed. Even mathematicians are "picking winners". They're just using a model to do so.Thu, 17 May 2012 04:09:03 -0500