New Posts For Thread: QUESTION ON PROBABILITYhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29081287/question-on-probabilityI've simplified this but would like your views on how you would approach this.- I base form of a team on ten matches.Their sequence (latest to the right)W W W L L W W L W W WThis states they should win 70% of their next ten games.The lose their nextThat is interesting to me. The book did mention pitchers in their draft but never went into great detail. I suspect Beane only told Lewis what he wanted him to know, and didn't give away the keys.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29081287/question-on-probability?post_id=519210103#519210103That is interesting to me. The book did mention pitchers in their draft but never went into great detail. I suspect Beane only told Lewis what he wanted him to know, and didn't give away the keys.Tue, 01 May 2012 05:59:29 -0500re: MONEYBALL. I haven't read the book but the movie does point out one clear message about pitchers and performance - the movie never mentions pitchers in the buy/sell scheme of baseball.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29081287/question-on-probability?post_id=519209831#519209831re: MONEYBALL. I haven't read the book but the movie does point out one clear message about pitchers and performance - the movie never mentions pitchers in the buy/sell scheme of baseball.Tue, 01 May 2012 05:47:32 -0500Are all the OPTA stats available to the public again yet?Would love to get my hands on all the pass completed type stuffhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29081287/question-on-probability?post_id=519209521#519209521Are all the OPTA stats available to the public again yet?Would love to get my hands on all the pass completed type stuffTue, 01 May 2012 05:34:02 -0500The bookies will focus the public on the pitcher and their record and push the odds in accordingly. Because of pitcher rotation, they get to do this every six or seven games. A team can be performing mediocre and their "star" will be on the mound.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29081287/question-on-probability?post_id=519209437#519209437The bookies will focus the public on the pitcher and their record and push the odds in accordingly. Because of pitcher rotation, they get to do this every six or seven games. A team can be performing mediocre and their "star" will be on the mound.Tue, 01 May 2012 05:29:50 -0500That would be the case, except the odds for baseball tend to be built around the Vegas line, and the Vegas line is efficient in making money, not in pricing up the result of a game.There is a small but important difference between the two which meanshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29081287/question-on-probability?post_id=519209225#519209225That would be the case, except the odds for baseball tend to be built around the Vegas line, and the Vegas line is efficient in making money, not in pricing up the result of a game.There is a small but important difference between the two which meansTue, 01 May 2012 05:17:18 -0500don't the above comments from Lori and Shapeshifter just mean that:the matches are more predictablethe odds are more efficientrather than saying anything about how possible it is to beat the bookie/market?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29081287/question-on-probability?post_id=519209163#519209163don't the above comments from Lori and Shapeshifter just mean that:the matches are more predictablethe odds are more efficientrather than saying anything about how possible it is to beat the bookie/market?Tue, 01 May 2012 05:11:31 -0500Agree. There are so many games and the number of teams playing against each other to create a balanced overview of the league very quickly (as opposed to football or U.S. football where the teams play once a week).https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29081287/question-on-probability?post_id=519209073#519209073Agree. There are so many games and the number of teams playing against each other to create a balanced overview of the league very quickly (as opposed to football or U.S. football where the teams play once a week).Tue, 01 May 2012 05:04:40 -0500*The large sample size being the key.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29081287/question-on-probability?post_id=519209031#519209031*The large sample size being the key.Tue, 01 May 2012 05:00:53 -0500Baseball is probably the easiest sport in the world to build a model for because it's a sequence of percentage chances that you can assess reasonably well on a player vs player (vs outfield) basis.It's been proven that you can't play to the score verhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29081287/question-on-probability?post_id=519209019#519209019Baseball is probably the easiest sport in the world to build a model for because it's a sequence of percentage chances that you can assess reasonably well on a player vs player (vs outfield) basis.It's been proven that you can't play to the score verTue, 01 May 2012 04:59:59 -0500cpfc4me - I might have mentioned this on the thread, I'm using W L for the example of approach.I rate each game that a team plays. And based on the criteria, I do have teams that lose actually have a better rating.So, no, I don't just use W L. So rhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29081287/question-on-probability?post_id=519107883#519107883cpfc4me - I might have mentioned this on the thread, I'm using W L for the example of approach.I rate each game that a team plays. And based on the criteria, I do have teams that lose actually have a better rating.So, no, I don't just use W L. So rSat, 28 Apr 2012 07:02:31 -0500