New Posts For Thread: Maths problem related to Kelly stakinghttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29029297/maths-problem-related-to-kelly-stakingYou have £1,000.You have an opportunity to play a game betting heads or tails on 10,000 separate coin tosses. The odds when you bet are evens on both heads and tails (as if the coin was fair).The coin may be biased. You are given the information thaIf you enjoy puzzles I have posted a few on my blog for your delectation over the Easter period.They do require an understanding of the fundamentals of probability theory but they are not too difficult.If I get time I will post some easier ones too.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29029297/maths-problem-related-to-kelly-staking?post_id=518115417#518115417If you enjoy puzzles I have posted a few on my blog for your delectation over the Easter period.They do require an understanding of the fundamentals of probability theory but they are not too difficult.If I get time I will post some easier ones too.Sat, 31 Mar 2012 04:20:19 -0500It is a problem that may be solved by using The Central Limit Theorem ,using random variables and deviation etc.It is beyond my limited capabilities.If anyone is interested in the Kelly System there is a free software package,a small one,available frhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29029297/maths-problem-related-to-kelly-staking?post_id=518044653#518044653It is a problem that may be solved by using The Central Limit Theorem ,using random variables and deviation etc.It is beyond my limited capabilities.If anyone is interested in the Kelly System there is a free software package,a small one,available frThu, 29 Mar 2012 04:27:50 -0500Simply ?For some maybe.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29029297/maths-problem-related-to-kelly-staking?post_id=518033603#518033603Simply ?For some maybe.Wed, 28 Mar 2012 18:30:32 -0500Simply use a binomial confidence interval calculator.http://statpages.org/confint.htmlNo bets until both High and Low are in the same direction away from 0.5.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29029297/maths-problem-related-to-kelly-staking?post_id=518031205#518031205Simply use a binomial confidence interval calculator.http://statpages.org/confint.htmlNo bets until both High and Low are in the same direction away from 0.5.Wed, 28 Mar 2012 17:10:29 -0500Btw I hate even doing crosswords so you can guess where I'm coming from.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29029297/maths-problem-related-to-kelly-staking?post_id=518030605#518030605Btw I hate even doing crosswords so you can guess where I'm coming from.Wed, 28 Mar 2012 16:52:16 -0500Perhaps it might be more useful to most of us " average" punters on here if you just cut to the chase Invester, and clearly and straightforwardly outline the point you are trying to make here ?And also then tell us equally clearly how it can improvehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29029297/maths-problem-related-to-kelly-staking?post_id=518030485#518030485Perhaps it might be more useful to most of us " average" punters on here if you just cut to the chase Invester, and clearly and straightforwardly outline the point you are trying to make here ?And also then tell us equally clearly how it can improveWed, 28 Mar 2012 16:48:26 -0500Bayesian would be the way to go. Usually for bernoulli trials you'd use a beta distribution for the conjugate prior.If we know however that it is normally distributed it's harder. The fact it's within 40-60 with a 99.8% gives us a variance but as withttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29029297/maths-problem-related-to-kelly-staking?post_id=518021059#518021059Bayesian would be the way to go. Usually for bernoulli trials you'd use a beta distribution for the conjugate prior.If we know however that it is normally distributed it's harder. The fact it's within 40-60 with a 99.8% gives us a variance but as witWed, 28 Mar 2012 12:53:46 -0500First thought would be Bayesian updating to estimate Probability(heads) with the output being used to estimate edge, then using that for kelly.But that wouldn't use this information:"You are given the information that the chance of heads on a toss ishttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29029297/maths-problem-related-to-kelly-staking?post_id=518017677#518017677First thought would be Bayesian updating to estimate Probability(heads) with the output being used to estimate edge, then using that for kelly.But that wouldn't use this information:"You are given the information that the chance of heads on a toss isWed, 28 Mar 2012 11:04:00 -0500Working with evidential probabilities will allow you to test the assumptions you make regarding any edge you have against what's actually happened.One step up from a guesstimatehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29029297/maths-problem-related-to-kelly-staking?post_id=518015397#518015397Working with evidential probabilities will allow you to test the assumptions you make regarding any edge you have against what's actually happened.One step up from a guesstimateWed, 28 Mar 2012 10:01:28 -0500You have £1,000.You have an opportunity to play a game betting heads or tails on 10,000 separate coin tosses. The odds when you bet are evens on both heads and tails (as if the coin was fair).The coin may be biased. You are given the information thahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29029297/maths-problem-related-to-kelly-staking?post_id=518015169#518015169You have £1,000.You have an opportunity to play a game betting heads or tails on 10,000 separate coin tosses. The odds when you bet are evens on both heads and tails (as if the coin was fair).The coin may be biased. You are given the information thaWed, 28 Mar 2012 09:53:06 -0500