New Posts For Thread: Forumites experiences of number-crunching/stats-based approachhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28944943/forumites-experiences-of-number-crunchingstats-based-approachI'm coming at this from a horse racing perspective but experiences from other sports welcome. Not expecting anyone to give away any money-printing systems but general views on approach, validity, lessons learnt etc would make for an interesting threaHmmm... Yeah, that's an interesting way of thinking about it. Get some idea of how many horses a particular trainer will be able to take down, and then look to see which of their runners appear to be the ones 'filling up the empty slots'. That couldhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28944943/forumites-experiences-of-number-crunchingstats-based-approach?post_id=517039861#517039861Hmmm... Yeah, that's an interesting way of thinking about it. Get some idea of how many horses a particular trainer will be able to take down, and then look to see which of their runners appear to be the ones 'filling up the empty slots'. That couldThu, 01 Mar 2012 17:44:11 -0600I agree with the "think like a trainer". It hilights some of the points trying to be made on this thread that the 'facts' are just one aspect of finding a play.Also, last year I started looking at how many horses were going to meetings. The cost ofhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28944943/forumites-experiences-of-number-crunchingstats-based-approach?post_id=517038785#517038785I agree with the "think like a trainer". It hilights some of the points trying to be made on this thread that the 'facts' are just one aspect of finding a play.Also, last year I started looking at how many horses were going to meetings. The cost ofThu, 01 Mar 2012 17:13:09 -0600Think like a trainer. That's good advice for inexperienced punters. In many low-level races you can tell that several of the trainers are doing little more than going through the motions with their horse. You need to try to work out what the trainer'https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28944943/forumites-experiences-of-number-crunchingstats-based-approach?post_id=517036231#517036231Think like a trainer. That's good advice for inexperienced punters. In many low-level races you can tell that several of the trainers are doing little more than going through the motions with their horse. You need to try to work out what the trainer'Thu, 01 Mar 2012 16:08:14 -0600it is quite common for trainers to run horses at longer/shorter trips to either build up speed or stamina and sometimes to lower or even hide the clear rating of the horse so as to keep it on a handy weight, if you add this data with trainers placinghttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28944943/forumites-experiences-of-number-crunchingstats-based-approach?post_id=517006745#517006745it is quite common for trainers to run horses at longer/shorter trips to either build up speed or stamina and sometimes to lower or even hide the clear rating of the horse so as to keep it on a handy weight, if you add this data with trainers placingWed, 29 Feb 2012 22:50:01 -0600The only way to make consistent profits in racing other than using stable information or trading is to be as maverick as possible in estimating the chances of individual runners in any race.Those that follow hot trainers and jockeys or official ratinhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28944943/forumites-experiences-of-number-crunchingstats-based-approach?post_id=517006551#517006551The only way to make consistent profits in racing other than using stable information or trading is to be as maverick as possible in estimating the chances of individual runners in any race.Those that follow hot trainers and jockeys or official ratinWed, 29 Feb 2012 22:40:56 -0600BTOR - you should be pleased that there are errors in the data sources, it creates a barrier to entry to stop everyone else following the same strategy and eating up your edge.All of my trading is systematic, not based on any human decisions. I wouldhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28944943/forumites-experiences-of-number-crunchingstats-based-approach?post_id=516994733#516994733BTOR - you should be pleased that there are errors in the data sources, it creates a barrier to entry to stop everyone else following the same strategy and eating up your edge.All of my trading is systematic, not based on any human decisions. I wouldWed, 29 Feb 2012 16:23:02 -0600Betfair / Timeform do seem to be particularly bad at historical data integrity, especially the in-play figures which are out by up to 50% multiple times per day - e.g. you successfully back a horse at 12 in-play but Timeform shows the in-play high ashttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28944943/forumites-experiences-of-number-crunchingstats-based-approach?post_id=516979097#516979097Betfair / Timeform do seem to be particularly bad at historical data integrity, especially the in-play figures which are out by up to 50% multiple times per day - e.g. you successfully back a horse at 12 in-play but Timeform shows the in-play high asWed, 29 Feb 2012 10:18:08 -0600Duncan,It has been my observation that because their sole income does not rely on the integrity of the data, nearly all providers have some errors in the data, otherwise it would be very expensive.My sole income relies on data integrity, so I devotehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28944943/forumites-experiences-of-number-crunchingstats-based-approach?post_id=516976913#516976913Duncan,It has been my observation that because their sole income does not rely on the integrity of the data, nearly all providers have some errors in the data, otherwise it would be very expensive.My sole income relies on data integrity, so I devoteWed, 29 Feb 2012 09:21:29 -0600I created a system of filters that used three racing sources, one being Adrian Massey's site. Most of the time, the data would 'align' itself but I had a 'flag' that went up if something didn't fall within a tolerance. At that point, I would do thehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28944943/forumites-experiences-of-number-crunchingstats-based-approach?post_id=516975703#516975703I created a system of filters that used three racing sources, one being Adrian Massey's site. Most of the time, the data would 'align' itself but I had a 'flag' that went up if something didn't fall within a tolerance. At that point, I would do theWed, 29 Feb 2012 08:51:28 -0600the astonishment at how much data contains errors. Without exception every single day I find errors in data. sounds like many of you fellas have your own databases....i'm not technically-minded enough to have done that...did you find the commerciallhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28944943/forumites-experiences-of-number-crunchingstats-based-approach?post_id=516974487#516974487the astonishment at how much data contains errors. Without exception every single day I find errors in data. sounds like many of you fellas have your own databases....i'm not technically-minded enough to have done that...did you find the commerciallWed, 29 Feb 2012 08:18:13 -0600