New Posts For Thread: Justified Paranoiahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28866083/justified-paranoiaFor those that doubted me, it's all here in black and white.The Betfair SP is being skimmed.Used to be a distinct advantage to layers, but now....Kempton 99%99%98%98%101%100%Market Rasen100%98%102%100%99%101%Towcester101%99%99%101%99%100%99%FairyhousThere are a number of reasons why I know where it's coming from.The overs are being skimmed off certain parts of the market.If a certain large punter were to have a strategy based on the overall overrounds, he wouldn't be bothering with the smaller lhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28866083/justified-paranoia?post_id=515462579#515462579There are a number of reasons why I know where it's coming from.The overs are being skimmed off certain parts of the market.If a certain large punter were to have a strategy based on the overall overrounds, he wouldn't be bothering with the smaller lTue, 24 Jan 2012 07:39:57 -0600I still reckon it's some clever sod finding an edge we're all too thick to spot and taking his 0.5%. If his volumes are big enough - which they easily could be if only playing into the massive main HR markets, then that's a whole lot of wonga.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28866083/justified-paranoia?post_id=515461437#515461437I still reckon it's some clever sod finding an edge we're all too thick to spot and taking his 0.5%. If his volumes are big enough - which they easily could be if only playing into the massive main HR markets, then that's a whole lot of wonga.Tue, 24 Jan 2012 07:02:31 -0600word of mouth from excited punters made BF. WOM can work both wayshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28866083/justified-paranoia?post_id=515458809#515458809word of mouth from excited punters made BF. WOM can work both waysTue, 24 Jan 2012 05:29:34 -0600Pretty much with City type in charge, big shareholder pressure from people with Casino backgrounds you have to assume they have maths wizards employed to look at every angle for slicing a bit more profit every possible way. They will use their insidehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28866083/justified-paranoia?post_id=515458385#515458385Pretty much with City type in charge, big shareholder pressure from people with Casino backgrounds you have to assume they have maths wizards employed to look at every angle for slicing a bit more profit every possible way. They will use their insideTue, 24 Jan 2012 05:15:26 -0600Just as an aside here, one could have a case for being misled.While the historical data is provided on an as is basis, the SP advantages published are completely and utterly wrong.I found a lot of errors in the calculations.They have not withdrawn lahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28866083/justified-paranoia?post_id=515440199#515440199Just as an aside here, one could have a case for being misled.While the historical data is provided on an as is basis, the SP advantages published are completely and utterly wrong.I found a lot of errors in the calculations.They have not withdrawn laMon, 23 Jan 2012 17:25:17 -0600No the turnover is similar and even so you'd expect more variation.When I was doing it, even though the overrounds were around 3% on UK and IRE and around 5% on AUS, there was great variation.The SP's are too consistently normal in all markets.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28866083/justified-paranoia?post_id=515439787#515439787No the turnover is similar and even so you'd expect more variation.When I was doing it, even though the overrounds were around 3% on UK and IRE and around 5% on AUS, there was great variation.The SP's are too consistently normal in all markets.Mon, 23 Jan 2012 17:15:52 -0600what effect has PC had on SP betting.... (and all betting)people want 'free' volatility NOW....marginally underound SP - offered thathttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28866083/justified-paranoia?post_id=515438215#515438215what effect has PC had on SP betting.... (and all betting)people want 'free' volatility NOW....marginally underound SP - offered thatMon, 23 Jan 2012 16:33:16 -0600BTO maybe a few more are following the same strategy these days that you publicised and are laying to SP thereby tipping the balance the other way?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28866083/justified-paranoia?post_id=515429139#515429139BTO maybe a few more are following the same strategy these days that you publicised and are laying to SP thereby tipping the balance the other way?Mon, 23 Jan 2012 13:29:21 -0600Erm , multiples are offline for the moment that may be one reason for todays improved overround compared to recent trendshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28866083/justified-paranoia?post_id=515419931#515419931Erm , multiples are offline for the moment that may be one reason for todays improved overround compared to recent trendsMon, 23 Jan 2012 09:42:35 -0600To make my point more clearly: If, over a number of years the markets showed a consistent over-round it would be as logical to suggest that that was caused by an "under-round skimming bot" as it is to state that a consistent under-round (if indeed thhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28866083/justified-paranoia?post_id=515419363#515419363To make my point more clearly: If, over a number of years the markets showed a consistent over-round it would be as logical to suggest that that was caused by an "under-round skimming bot" as it is to state that a consistent under-round (if indeed thMon, 23 Jan 2012 09:27:32 -0600