New Posts For Thread: Hattrick odds questionhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28852809/hattrick-odds-questionHiAnother question for mathematicians (thanks for your patience!)If the odds of a player to score a goal anytime (eg Messi tonight 2.36 according to Betfair) what do you think the fair odds are for Messi to score a hattrick? Is there a formula?ThanksIn fact, one company was going 10/1 3 days ago, just looking at the history...https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28852809/hattrick-odds-question?post_id=515381985#515381985In fact, one company was going 10/1 3 days ago, just looking at the history...Sun, 22 Jan 2012 13:25:33 -0600Well, I am delighted to lay at between 6 and 7/1, thanks to the OP for pointing out this topic.It is interesting to note that one of the major bookies was offerring 8/1, earlier today, and that was in the full knowledge that mugs will back it virtualhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28852809/hattrick-odds-question?post_id=515381865#515381865Well, I am delighted to lay at between 6 and 7/1, thanks to the OP for pointing out this topic.It is interesting to note that one of the major bookies was offerring 8/1, earlier today, and that was in the full knowledge that mugs will back it virtualSun, 22 Jan 2012 13:22:28 -0600Didn't realize you could back individual players to score hatricks on hereRonaldo matched berween 7.2 and 8.8https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28852809/hattrick-odds-question?post_id=515381743#515381743Didn't realize you could back individual players to score hatricks on hereRonaldo matched berween 7.2 and 8.8Sun, 22 Jan 2012 13:20:04 -0600Maybe right in that he is too short for Anytime rather than hatricks usually , which suggests there are a lot of teams in Spain who give up once they fall a couple behind.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28852809/hattrick-odds-question?post_id=515381031#515381031Maybe right in that he is too short for Anytime rather than hatricks usually , which suggests there are a lot of teams in Spain who give up once they fall a couple behind.Sun, 22 Jan 2012 13:03:25 -0600The only relevant stats are the 2 seasons at Real.All 90 games 12 HattricksCup 15 Games 1 HattrickChampions League 17 Games 0 HattricksPrimera 58 Games 11 HattricksYou could make a case for laying agaihttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28852809/hattrick-odds-question?post_id=515380647#515380647The only relevant stats are the 2 seasons at Real.All 90 games 12 HattricksCup 15 Games 1 HattrickChampions League 17 Games 0 HattricksPrimera 58 Games 11 HattricksYou could make a case for laying agaiSun, 22 Jan 2012 12:53:36 -0600I would think 6/1 would be a good value lay, Hatrick scored on here looks like being about 5/1 which includes all the other strikers . 3/1 is just preposterous.Last sesaons stats may be skewed a bit by how incredibly indulgent RM were to Ronaldo .Whahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28852809/hattrick-odds-question?post_id=515379733#515379733I would think 6/1 would be a good value lay, Hatrick scored on here looks like being about 5/1 which includes all the other strikers . 3/1 is just preposterous.Last sesaons stats may be skewed a bit by how incredibly indulgent RM were to Ronaldo .WhaSun, 22 Jan 2012 12:32:48 -0600Any chance you could provide all stats from recent seasons, rather than just the ones that suit you?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28852809/hattrick-odds-question?post_id=515374209#515374209Any chance you could provide all stats from recent seasons, rather than just the ones that suit you?Sun, 22 Jan 2012 10:12:21 -0600"Yeah, because one hat trick against that strength of side really proves it's a poor lay "As it happened 3 times last season you might think otherwise.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28852809/hattrick-odds-question?post_id=515367147#515367147"Yeah, because one hat trick against that strength of side really proves it's a poor lay "As it happened 3 times last season you might think otherwise.Sun, 22 Jan 2012 06:59:39 -0600"Hope you weren't laying this last year when a hattrick was scored against a top 6 team"Yeah, because one hat trick against that strength of side really proves it's a poor lay Go on then, enlighten me as to how many hat tricks he has scored against thttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28852809/hattrick-odds-question?post_id=515365869#515365869"Hope you weren't laying this last year when a hattrick was scored against a top 6 team"Yeah, because one hat trick against that strength of side really proves it's a poor lay Go on then, enlighten me as to how many hat tricks he has scored against tSun, 22 Jan 2012 05:59:15 -0600I think the Poisson method is pretty reasonable. I use it for similar purposes.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28852809/hattrick-odds-question?post_id=515352715#515352715I think the Poisson method is pretty reasonable. I use it for similar purposes.Sat, 21 Jan 2012 19:19:50 -0600