New Posts For Thread: Maths help pleasehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28841417/maths-help-pleaseI have been looking at the 'will both teams score?' market just recently and have come up with a prediction method that after 100 games has a strike rate of 62% and a net profit of about 14 points. I haven't been putting money on, just collecting theThere is something else to consider.When did you start testing ?More goals tend to be scored at the start and end of the season and fewer in the middle.The difference might only be 0.2 goals a game but can have a major effect on the results.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28841417/maths-help-please?post_id=515158733#515158733There is something else to consider.When did you start testing ?More goals tend to be scored at the start and end of the season and fewer in the middle.The difference might only be 0.2 goals a game but can have a major effect on the results.Tue, 17 Jan 2012 17:29:08 -0600Thanks DBZE, I will have a look at that.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28841417/maths-help-please?post_id=515004355#515004355Thanks DBZE, I will have a look at that.Sat, 14 Jan 2012 07:07:03 -0600Rather than look at the strike rate I would recommend putting the 100 different profit/loss outcomes in Excel, calculating the standard deviation and average. P&L is more interesting than strike rate because it reflects the kind of odds you're bettinhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28841417/maths-help-please?post_id=514999375#514999375Rather than look at the strike rate I would recommend putting the 100 different profit/loss outcomes in Excel, calculating the standard deviation and average. P&L is more interesting than strike rate because it reflects the kind of odds you're bettinSat, 14 Jan 2012 03:45:46 -0600I've just had a thought. It's not the strike rate for the next 100 games it is predicting is it? It is the TOTAL games ie. 200. Therefore if the SR was at the lower end of the expected range (say 54%) for the whole 200 then that must mean that the sehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28841417/maths-help-please?post_id=514979281#514979281I've just had a thought. It's not the strike rate for the next 100 games it is predicting is it? It is the TOTAL games ie. 200. Therefore if the SR was at the lower end of the expected range (say 54%) for the whole 200 then that must mean that the seFri, 13 Jan 2012 14:35:22 -0600Thanks Lori, I have tried that , and if what I have done is correct, I can be 95% sure that the next 100 predictions will have a strike rate of between 55.26% and 68.74%. I could also be be 99% sure the figure expected would be between 53.12% and 70.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28841417/maths-help-please?post_id=514978621#514978621Thanks Lori, I have tried that , and if what I have done is correct, I can be 95% sure that the next 100 predictions will have a strike rate of between 55.26% and 68.74%. I could also be be 99% sure the figure expected would be between 53.12% and 70.Fri, 13 Jan 2012 14:19:45 -0600.http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htmI don't have time to do much explaining right now, have a look at that site though and see if you can wangle some numbers out of it.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28841417/maths-help-please?post_id=514977099#514977099.http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htmI don't have time to do much explaining right now, have a look at that site though and see if you can wangle some numbers out of it.Fri, 13 Jan 2012 13:44:23 -0600I have been looking at the 'will both teams score?' market just recently and have come up with a prediction method that after 100 games has a strike rate of 62% and a net profit of about 14 points. I haven't been putting money on, just collecting thehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28841417/maths-help-please?post_id=514975975#514975975I have been looking at the 'will both teams score?' market just recently and have come up with a prediction method that after 100 games has a strike rate of 62% and a net profit of about 14 points. I haven't been putting money on, just collecting theFri, 13 Jan 2012 13:19:04 -0600