New Posts For Thread: Mathematical Derivationhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28830711/mathematical-derivationCan anyone recommend a source for learning the mathematical theory behind price derivation for major sports?The source can be a text or a website.Many thanks in advanceBy now there's a big academic literature on modelling football scores, but one of the earliest papers that kicked it all off (and explains the basic idea of Poisson regression) is 'Modelling Association Football Scores' by M.J. Maher (1982). Googlehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28830711/mathematical-derivation?post_id=515429461#515429461By now there's a big academic literature on modelling football scores, but one of the earliest papers that kicked it all off (and explains the basic idea of Poisson regression) is 'Modelling Association Football Scores' by M.J. Maher (1982). GoogleMon, 23 Jan 2012 13:35:47 -0600dunlaying: thank you very much for posting, this is exactly what I was looking forhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28830711/mathematical-derivation?post_id=515423945#515423945dunlaying: thank you very much for posting, this is exactly what I was looking forMon, 23 Jan 2012 11:26:44 -0600For the Poisson distribution there is a very good and concise explanation inFIFTY CHALLENGING PROBLEMS IN PROBABILITY,F Mosteller,Dover Books,available from Amazon for about £5.It is to be found in the solution to the Moldy Gelatin(sic) problem.Thehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28830711/mathematical-derivation?post_id=514915531#514915531For the Poisson distribution there is a very good and concise explanation inFIFTY CHALLENGING PROBLEMS IN PROBABILITY,F Mosteller,Dover Books,available from Amazon for about £5.It is to be found in the solution to the Moldy Gelatin(sic) problem.TheThu, 12 Jan 2012 03:53:46 -0600Contrarian (aptly named!), you are absolutely right, but I would like to find the models for each sport that there is most concensus about, or even any models that are applicable that I could take an opinion between myself. For example, where wouldhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28830711/mathematical-derivation?post_id=514879565#514879565Contrarian (aptly named!), you are absolutely right, but I would like to find the models for each sport that there is most concensus about, or even any models that are applicable that I could take an opinion between myself. For example, where wouldWed, 11 Jan 2012 09:50:58 -0600but I would like to know the exact models to use for each sport to be able to derive prices both pre-live and live. Well, there is not necessarily a great deal of consensus on what the correct model is for each sport. Eg. in football, some argue forhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28830711/mathematical-derivation?post_id=514874777#514874777but I would like to know the exact models to use for each sport to be able to derive prices both pre-live and live. Well, there is not necessarily a great deal of consensus on what the correct model is for each sport. Eg. in football, some argue forWed, 11 Jan 2012 07:41:45 -0600Gentlemen, thanks for the replies.Greens/Divide, thanks for the advice, I will check out these sourcesKenilworth, I agree experience helps, but I want a reliable source for the theory. If you dont have the theory, it will take a hell of a lot longerhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28830711/mathematical-derivation?post_id=514873897#514873897Gentlemen, thanks for the replies.Greens/Divide, thanks for the advice, I will check out these sourcesKenilworth, I agree experience helps, but I want a reliable source for the theory. If you dont have the theory, it will take a hell of a lot longerWed, 11 Jan 2012 07:16:14 -0600most of the mathematics associated with football markets is simple mathematics. if u had good probability and arithmetic skills u will find howhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28830711/mathematical-derivation?post_id=514870707#514870707most of the mathematics associated with football markets is simple mathematics. if u had good probability and arithmetic skills u will find howWed, 11 Jan 2012 05:30:59 -0600It comes with experience.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28830711/mathematical-derivation?post_id=514854605#514854605It comes with experience.Tue, 10 Jan 2012 17:44:45 -0600Probably best to brush up on your measure theory first, I can recommend Noel Vaillant's site:probability.nethttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28830711/mathematical-derivation?post_id=514797101#514797101Probably best to brush up on your measure theory first, I can recommend Noel Vaillant's site:probability.netMon, 09 Jan 2012 12:35:41 -0600I am subscribed to patrickMT's, YouTube Channel. His video's have helped me brush up on my maths skills. Although it's not sports related, he explains maths very succinctly.http://www.youtube.com/user/patrickJMT?feature=g-all-uhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28830711/mathematical-derivation?post_id=514795779#514795779I am subscribed to patrickMT's, YouTube Channel. His video's have helped me brush up on my maths skills. Although it's not sports related, he explains maths very succinctly.http://www.youtube.com/user/patrickJMT?feature=g-all-uMon, 09 Jan 2012 12:04:01 -0600