New Posts For Thread: Achieve Consistency or Accept Fluctuation?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28799439/achieve-consistency-or-accept-fluctuationLooking through my figures for the last 50 months, I find that my average profit is £914.14. That's all fine and dandy, but I wonder if other long-term punters could comment on the distribution of P/L that I've had over this period? My fear is thatTrev -Thanks for getting all masochistic on my figures - I agree with your conclusions.It's strange for me to raed "Year 1 : -£ 1792.58" because I pride myself on never having had a losing (calendar) year. But you're right, of course.Did I change myhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28799439/achieve-consistency-or-accept-fluctuation?post_id=514369109#514369109Trev -Thanks for getting all masochistic on my figures - I agree with your conclusions.It's strange for me to raed "Year 1 : -£ 1792.58" because I pride myself on never having had a losing (calendar) year. But you're right, of course.Did I change myFri, 30 Dec 2011 04:45:00 -0600Cheers DFC, all the best to you and yours too.Dr.J, I like analysing figures (masochist) and noticed your first year was a losing one, so made a quick tally of the following years:Year 1 : -£ 1792.58Year 2 : £10231.65Year 3 : £ 8427.82Year 4 :https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28799439/achieve-consistency-or-accept-fluctuation?post_id=514361647#514361647Cheers DFC, all the best to you and yours too.Dr.J, I like analysing figures (masochist) and noticed your first year was a losing one, so made a quick tally of the following years:Year 1 : -£ 1792.58Year 2 : £10231.65Year 3 : £ 8427.82Year 4 :Thu, 29 Dec 2011 20:16:55 -0600dave bWhen: 28 Dec 11 23:03The PC is an incentive to do the opposite.This is something I've considered but not really got my head around how to do it. Let's say you have a green book in a two runner market of £100 on each and they are currently bothhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28799439/achieve-consistency-or-accept-fluctuation?post_id=514356059#514356059dave bWhen: 28 Dec 11 23:03The PC is an incentive to do the opposite.This is something I've considered but not really got my head around how to do it. Let's say you have a green book in a two runner market of £100 on each and they are currently bothThu, 29 Dec 2011 16:58:23 -0600surely if you bet all week all the time, then your edge is a slim, and you need high turnover to achieve your goals. and to have a slim edge on betfair, not exactly difficult, sum of those figurd, imohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28799439/achieve-consistency-or-accept-fluctuation?post_id=514354191#514354191surely if you bet all week all the time, then your edge is a slim, and you need high turnover to achieve your goals. and to have a slim edge on betfair, not exactly difficult, sum of those figurd, imoThu, 29 Dec 2011 16:17:08 -0600Still carrying out checks on how certain STRATEGIES would have worked on previously rated races.......If you consider the FLUCTUATIONS were "dodgy" above .....then the result on checking next 5 days in APRIL/MAY 2008 were as follows.......( typicallyhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28799439/achieve-consistency-or-accept-fluctuation?post_id=514353345#514353345Still carrying out checks on how certain STRATEGIES would have worked on previously rated races.......If you consider the FLUCTUATIONS were "dodgy" above .....then the result on checking next 5 days in APRIL/MAY 2008 were as follows.......( typicallyThu, 29 Dec 2011 15:58:05 -0600mediocre....just like my posthttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28799439/achieve-consistency-or-accept-fluctuation?post_id=514328461#514328461mediocre....just like my postThu, 29 Dec 2011 06:13:53 -0600looking at the numbers only , i feel u are playing a very dangerous game. the variance indicates that ur loss probablity is very high which indicates the probality of 4 or 5 consecative big losing months is not ignorable, me thinks. having said thahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28799439/achieve-consistency-or-accept-fluctuation?post_id=514328449#514328449looking at the numbers only , i feel u are playing a very dangerous game. the variance indicates that ur loss probablity is very high which indicates the probality of 4 or 5 consecative big losing months is not ignorable, me thinks. having said thaThu, 29 Dec 2011 06:13:21 -0600Trevh 29 Dec 11 01:59 Bff, I think you're probably reading too much into the figures, it's impossible to tell with such a short sample whether it's performance related or just random variance, but my guess is the latter.DFC, you always seem to beliehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28799439/achieve-consistency-or-accept-fluctuation?post_id=514328387#514328387Trevh 29 Dec 11 01:59 Bff, I think you're probably reading too much into the figures, it's impossible to tell with such a short sample whether it's performance related or just random variance, but my guess is the latter.DFC, you always seem to belieThu, 29 Dec 2011 06:11:13 -0600Bff, I think you're probably reading too much into the figures, it's impossible to tell with such a short sample whether it's performance related or just random variance, but my guess is the latter.DFC, you always seem to believe that when you've hadhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28799439/achieve-consistency-or-accept-fluctuation?post_id=514316073#514316073Bff, I think you're probably reading too much into the figures, it's impossible to tell with such a short sample whether it's performance related or just random variance, but my guess is the latter.DFC, you always seem to believe that when you've hadWed, 28 Dec 2011 19:59:02 -0600I notice your worst month is July and your best is January so there is a definite seasonal linkto your type of betting, perhaps you should seasonally adjust the volume of your betting?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28799439/achieve-consistency-or-accept-fluctuation?post_id=514314601#514314601I notice your worst month is July and your best is January so there is a definite seasonal linkto your type of betting, perhaps you should seasonally adjust the volume of your betting?Wed, 28 Dec 2011 19:13:13 -0600