New Posts For Thread: Winners are lucky. Losers are unlucky.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28709701/winners-are-lucky-losers-are-unluckyThat is all there is to it. Anybody who thinks otherwise is just deluding themselves.Don't kid yourself that you are a pro only placing 'value' bets (after commission) - You aren't! If your P&L happens to show a profit then you've just been lucky.EndTwo quants exchanging ideas.Well there goes the neigbourhood.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28709701/winners-are-lucky-losers-are-unlucky?post_id=513493307#513493307Two quants exchanging ideas.Well there goes the neigbourhood.Tue, 06 Dec 2011 13:21:36 -0600I think that it is possible to choose "poor" seeds for the Mersenne twister, that is ones which will give you autocorrelated variates, but if you try the results with a few different approaches it should be apparent if some of them are odd.Once you hhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28709701/winners-are-lucky-losers-are-unlucky?post_id=513486477#513486477I think that it is possible to choose "poor" seeds for the Mersenne twister, that is ones which will give you autocorrelated variates, but if you try the results with a few different approaches it should be apparent if some of them are odd.Once you hTue, 06 Dec 2011 09:59:36 -0600I should add: As long as all the repeated runs etc are processed inside the programme, then having a weak seed isn't a problem at all, and on the same architecture (I think?) letting people input seeds lets you 'share' results easily with others usinhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28709701/winners-are-lucky-losers-are-unlucky?post_id=513485397#513485397I should add: As long as all the repeated runs etc are processed inside the programme, then having a weak seed isn't a problem at all, and on the same architecture (I think?) letting people input seeds lets you 'share' results easily with others usinTue, 06 Dec 2011 09:22:45 -0600Initially time(0) but might use /dev/urandom or just "What seed would you like to use?" works well for monte carlo so you can repeat runs to check for interesting stuff after the fact.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28709701/winners-are-lucky-losers-are-unlucky?post_id=513485367#513485367Initially time(0) but might use /dev/urandom or just "What seed would you like to use?" works well for monte carlo so you can repeat runs to check for interesting stuff after the fact.Tue, 06 Dec 2011 09:21:29 -0600How are you initialising your Mersenne twister?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28709701/winners-are-lucky-losers-are-unlucky?post_id=513484089#513484089How are you initialising your Mersenne twister?Tue, 06 Dec 2011 08:37:54 -0600Thanks guys :)I've built the results engine, I've not yet worked into it the staking engines. I think that'll be the fun part.But currently you can pick any number of runners and assign a probability to each. It'll then run that race a thousand timeshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28709701/winners-are-lucky-losers-are-unlucky?post_id=513483131#513483131Thanks guys :)I've built the results engine, I've not yet worked into it the staking engines. I think that'll be the fun part.But currently you can pick any number of runners and assign a probability to each. It'll then run that race a thousand timesTue, 06 Dec 2011 08:06:27 -0600http://www.professional-racing-tips.com/StakingPlanPages/Retirement.aspxPlenty PLANS there!https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28709701/winners-are-lucky-losers-are-unlucky?post_id=513482491#513482491http://www.professional-racing-tips.com/StakingPlanPages/Retirement.aspxPlenty PLANS there!Tue, 06 Dec 2011 07:43:35 -0600http://www.grandstand.com.au/retirementstakingplan/https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28709701/winners-are-lucky-losers-are-unlucky?post_id=513482353#513482353http://www.grandstand.com.au/retirementstakingplan/Tue, 06 Dec 2011 07:39:09 -0600Kelly will do fine. And it should work just fine without an edge, it'll just tell you to bet 0% which will keep your bank at its highest possible level.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28709701/winners-are-lucky-losers-are-unlucky?post_id=513482179#513482179Kelly will do fine. And it should work just fine without an edge, it'll just tell you to bet 0% which will keep your bank at its highest possible level.Tue, 06 Dec 2011 07:31:15 -0600I'll try to include any I'm asked to include.Kelly I can include where I build in an edge, but without an edge Kelly can't really work.If you'd like me to include a staking plan please link to a decent description so I can check we're discussing thehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28709701/winners-are-lucky-losers-are-unlucky?post_id=513481799#513481799I'll try to include any I'm asked to include.Kelly I can include where I build in an edge, but without an edge Kelly can't really work.If you'd like me to include a staking plan please link to a decent description so I can check we're discussing theTue, 06 Dec 2011 07:18:18 -0600