New Posts For Thread: Maths help with lay strategyhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27725177/maths-help-with-lay-strategyBear with me this isn't straightforward, but I know there are a couple of guys here that may be able to help:I have a lay method which in testing to £100 backers stakes (assuming 5% commission) shows a 14.73% return over 336 bets (strike rate 81%, aTo Carify: the table did not come out well in the posting the last 2 columns are the average odds of (a) the selections and (b) the losing lays. Methid 1: 720 slections; 45 losers; £435.10 return 6.25% of selections lost; 30.22% of stakes returned ahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27725177/maths-help-with-lay-strategy?post_id=498255985#498255985To Carify: the table did not come out well in the posting the last 2 columns are the average odds of (a) the selections and (b) the losing lays. Methid 1: 720 slections; 45 losers; £435.10 return 6.25% of selections lost; 30.22% of stakes returned aWed, 08 Jun 2011 04:51:04 -0500Faskinating discussion. Congratulations lads/lasses. It encourages me to have a deeper look at Kelly et al though, probably like most, maths is not a strength. Which just about sums up my betting! However, I’ve recently tried to get more discihttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27725177/maths-help-with-lay-strategy?post_id=498189873#498189873Faskinating discussion. Congratulations lads/lasses. It encourages me to have a deeper look at Kelly et al though, probably like most, maths is not a strength. Which just about sums up my betting! However, I’ve recently tried to get more disciTue, 07 Jun 2011 12:19:33 -0500Knocked together some java code today and ran some monte-carlo / random simulations laying at 4 to 1 using pure kelly and the 5% winning commission and starting with a stake of 1000 quid in each run over 100 bets suggest that the whole approach is VEhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27725177/maths-help-with-lay-strategy?post_id=498123561#498123561Knocked together some java code today and ran some monte-carlo / random simulations laying at 4 to 1 using pure kelly and the 5% winning commission and starting with a stake of 1000 quid in each run over 100 bets suggest that the whole approach is VEMon, 06 Jun 2011 17:31:25 -0500Just search the forum with Lori and Kelly.You will find more than enough to answer all your questions on the Kelly betting approach.And don't thank me. You don't know the half of what pain you're in for.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27725177/maths-help-with-lay-strategy?post_id=498107809#498107809Just search the forum with Lori and Kelly.You will find more than enough to answer all your questions on the Kelly betting approach.And don't thank me. You don't know the half of what pain you're in for.Mon, 06 Jun 2011 14:23:56 -0500Hi C++,I was beginning to lose hope of Kelly help so thanks for replying. I've looked at the site you suggested but without commission it's quite hard to assess what the staking would look like, and on balance I think I prefer the Staking Machine forhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27725177/maths-help-with-lay-strategy?post_id=498106513#498106513Hi C++,I was beginning to lose hope of Kelly help so thanks for replying. I've looked at the site you suggested but without commission it's quite hard to assess what the staking would look like, and on balance I think I prefer the Staking Machine forMon, 06 Jun 2011 14:10:14 -0500Hhhhhmmmm very interesting, have just read about the kelly criterion in the last few days in this book http://www.amazon.com/Quants-Whizzes-Conquered-Street-Destroyed/dp/0307453375 and was wondering what kelly value I should be using for my laying sthttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27725177/maths-help-with-lay-strategy?post_id=498038445#498038445Hhhhhmmmm very interesting, have just read about the kelly criterion in the last few days in this book http://www.amazon.com/Quants-Whizzes-Conquered-Street-Destroyed/dp/0307453375 and was wondering what kelly value I should be using for my laying stSun, 05 Jun 2011 18:17:39 -0500Any more help out there??https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27725177/maths-help-with-lay-strategy?post_id=497807197#497807197Any more help out there??Fri, 03 Jun 2011 09:44:48 -0500Sorry I should have said 3.26/4.03=0.81 (the strike rate) and 1-0.81=0.19https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27725177/maths-help-with-lay-strategy?post_id=497781477#497781477Sorry I should have said 3.26/4.03=0.81 (the strike rate) and 1-0.81=0.19Fri, 03 Jun 2011 04:11:28 -0500Thanks for the answers guys, which have helped, but I'm still not quite there.Maclovin's point about the price of the losing lays explains the difference. The 0 expectation is taken across the whole sample of 336 bets, when the average price of the lhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27725177/maths-help-with-lay-strategy?post_id=497781413#497781413Thanks for the answers guys, which have helped, but I'm still not quite there.Maclovin's point about the price of the losing lays explains the difference. The 0 expectation is taken across the whole sample of 336 bets, when the average price of the lFri, 03 Jun 2011 04:09:43 -0500Is it because in the initial non kelly calculation you use the risk as the backers stake but in the kelly calculation you use the liability? I.e. the 14.73% return is too high an estimate and your kelly edge really is 0.38% (0.7695-0.7657). The firshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27725177/maths-help-with-lay-strategy?post_id=497779917#497779917Is it because in the initial non kelly calculation you use the risk as the backers stake but in the kelly calculation you use the liability? I.e. the 14.73% return is too high an estimate and your kelly edge really is 0.38% (0.7695-0.7657). The firsFri, 03 Jun 2011 03:28:05 -0500