New Posts For Thread: True reflection of odds - survey.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27595917/true-reflection-of-odds---surveyBased on a rating system of 1 to 10, 10 being good, how do you rate the final SP price on Betfair in relation to the probability of something winning. eg. Take 100 horses at odds of 2.0, 50% will win and 50% will lose.presidente is correct, in that BF markets aren't closed, zero sum games.Discovering this was my main route to making substantial sums here.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27595917/true-reflection-of-odds---survey?post_id=495475565#495475565presidente is correct, in that BF markets aren't closed, zero sum games.Discovering this was my main route to making substantial sums here.Thu, 12 May 2011 19:01:19 -0500There are huge edges staring us in the face every single day, we just probably don't know it.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27595917/true-reflection-of-odds---survey?post_id=495470177#495470177There are huge edges staring us in the face every single day, we just probably don't know it.Thu, 12 May 2011 17:59:12 -0500viva, looking only at liquid markets, winners improve efficiency and losers (who lose more than just commission), make markets less efficient.Over time there will be a wealth transfer from big players who move the price away from efficiency to big plhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27595917/true-reflection-of-odds---survey?post_id=495469045#495469045viva, looking only at liquid markets, winners improve efficiency and losers (who lose more than just commission), make markets less efficient.Over time there will be a wealth transfer from big players who move the price away from efficiency to big plThu, 12 May 2011 17:47:05 -0500viva, looking only at liquid markets, winners improve efficiency and losers (who lose more than just commission), make markets less efficient.Over time there will be a wealth transfer from big players who move the price away from efficiency to big plhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27595917/true-reflection-of-odds---survey?post_id=495458761#495458761viva, looking only at liquid markets, winners improve efficiency and losers (who lose more than just commission), make markets less efficient.Over time there will be a wealth transfer from big players who move the price away from efficiency to big plThu, 12 May 2011 16:16:31 -0500I agree with Investor, it's surprising but also humbling as it lets you know how to make money!https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27595917/true-reflection-of-odds---survey?post_id=495452869#495452869I agree with Investor, it's surprising but also humbling as it lets you know how to make money!Thu, 12 May 2011 15:26:48 -0500not sure I agree with that, Investor. many BF markets don't really exhibit a couple of the key criteria of truly efficient markets.firstly, a lot of minor markets don't have enough players involved to find a true level.secondly, even the main marketshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27595917/true-reflection-of-odds---survey?post_id=495449085#495449085not sure I agree with that, Investor. many BF markets don't really exhibit a couple of the key criteria of truly efficient markets.firstly, a lot of minor markets don't have enough players involved to find a true level.secondly, even the main marketsThu, 12 May 2011 14:57:53 -0500Placed 100 £2 bets on Horse Racing over the last 9 days. After 100 bets £0.59 down - Got to say 9.9https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27595917/true-reflection-of-odds---survey?post_id=495438885#495438885Placed 100 £2 bets on Horse Racing over the last 9 days. After 100 bets £0.59 down - Got to say 9.9Thu, 12 May 2011 13:32:21 -0500Whatever it is, it will get closer and closer to 10 over time.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27595917/true-reflection-of-odds---survey?post_id=495417229#495417229Whatever it is, it will get closer and closer to 10 over time.Thu, 12 May 2011 10:18:51 -0500average more like 8.5-9 for me. too many cases where big positions distort prices for it to be higher than that.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27595917/true-reflection-of-odds---survey?post_id=495396233#495396233average more like 8.5-9 for me. too many cases where big positions distort prices for it to be higher than that.Thu, 12 May 2011 06:48:34 -0500You wdn't need to 'rate' it--this is something you cd find out. One implication is that you shd do everything you can to back at better than the bf SP.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27595917/true-reflection-of-odds---survey?post_id=495324145#495324145You wdn't need to 'rate' it--this is something you cd find out. One implication is that you shd do everything you can to back at better than the bf SP.Wed, 11 May 2011 15:33:59 -0500