New Posts For Thread: Staking Plan for a System Testhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27503833/staking-plan-for-a-system-testHi All,Ive been away from the forums for a few months gathering some stats!.I have found a sport which i feel i have a slight edge in. The liquidity is very low and the system involves a slight Martingale method.Basically, i place 2 bets, the firstWhy is it always 1000 bets -?????its a load of boxoloxlIf you think of a logical set of value backs/ lays have a go and please dont mention 1000 bets again pleasehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27503833/staking-plan-for-a-system-test?post_id=495119873#495119873Why is it always 1000 bets -?????its a load of boxoloxlIf you think of a logical set of value backs/ lays have a go and please dont mention 1000 bets again pleaseMon, 09 May 2011 15:20:17 -0500You say that 7 losing bets is a slim chance and over 10 nearer impossible but you recently had a run of 8. The losing run which breaks you always seems impossible, unrealistic and more important psychologically unfair.To put things in perspective thehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27503833/staking-plan-for-a-system-test?post_id=494021833#494021833You say that 7 losing bets is a slim chance and over 10 nearer impossible but you recently had a run of 8. The losing run which breaks you always seems impossible, unrealistic and more important psychologically unfair.To put things in perspective theFri, 29 Apr 2011 04:00:41 -0500Over the last 652 bets, i have a strike rate of 41.26%.Unfortunately i do not have historical BF odds for some of these bets so am unsure what the average Back. Lay odds would be within the combination bet.I still feel that having 7 losing bets on thhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27503833/staking-plan-for-a-system-test?post_id=493948353#493948353Over the last 652 bets, i have a strike rate of 41.26%.Unfortunately i do not have historical BF odds for some of these bets so am unsure what the average Back. Lay odds would be within the combination bet.I still feel that having 7 losing bets on thThu, 28 Apr 2011 13:55:16 -0500I have just averaged out that over my last 100 bets, my average back bet odds were 4.43 and my average lay odds were 1.23.My strike rate (on a combination of the above back and lay bet) is 43%, the longest losing bet was 8 bets (recently).Can someonehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27503833/staking-plan-for-a-system-test?post_id=493947657#493947657I have just averaged out that over my last 100 bets, my average back bet odds were 4.43 and my average lay odds were 1.23.My strike rate (on a combination of the above back and lay bet) is 43%, the longest losing bet was 8 bets (recently).Can someoneThu, 28 Apr 2011 13:49:28 -0500What usually happens is that the punter throws the towel in or starts chasing the losses. Staking plans are ok on paper but very few have the discipline or courage to see them through when things go wrong as inevitably they do.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27503833/staking-plan-for-a-system-test?post_id=493726241#493726241What usually happens is that the punter throws the towel in or starts chasing the losses. Staking plans are ok on paper but very few have the discipline or courage to see them through when things go wrong as inevitably they do.Tue, 26 Apr 2011 14:45:46 -0500True, but hopefully after 10 likley losers you might put the brakes on LOL also 5% of the bank means at least you wont go bust.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27503833/staking-plan-for-a-system-test?post_id=493719053#493719053True, but hopefully after 10 likley losers you might put the brakes on LOL also 5% of the bank means at least you wont go bust.Tue, 26 Apr 2011 13:32:06 -0500All goes well until the longest losing run one day becomes 22 and wipes you out.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27503833/staking-plan-for-a-system-test?post_id=493716781#493716781All goes well until the longest losing run one day becomes 22 and wipes you out.Tue, 26 Apr 2011 13:09:02 -0500Hi - if it helpsfirst you need to know your likely losing runin excel put in LOG(A1)/(LOG(1-A2)*-1)where A1 is number of events (suggest at least 1000)A2 = your actual strike rate.Your strike rate must be greater the average odds you bet ate.g if youhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27503833/staking-plan-for-a-system-test?post_id=493699805#493699805Hi - if it helpsfirst you need to know your likely losing runin excel put in LOG(A1)/(LOG(1-A2)*-1)where A1 is number of events (suggest at least 1000)A2 = your actual strike rate.Your strike rate must be greater the average odds you bet ate.g if youTue, 26 Apr 2011 10:16:04 -0500Forget it.All staking plans only come down to a number of bets at different level stakes.If you are doubling up for instance your plan will still amount to a number of bets at a level stake of 2 units and another number of bets at a level stake of 4https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27503833/staking-plan-for-a-system-test?post_id=493684885#493684885Forget it.All staking plans only come down to a number of bets at different level stakes.If you are doubling up for instance your plan will still amount to a number of bets at a level stake of 2 units and another number of bets at a level stake of 4Tue, 26 Apr 2011 06:42:24 -0500'The liquidity is very low and the system involves a slight Martingale method'why does that sentence just worry me?!https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27503833/staking-plan-for-a-system-test?post_id=493684301#493684301'The liquidity is very low and the system involves a slight Martingale method'why does that sentence just worry me?!Tue, 26 Apr 2011 06:30:20 -0500