New Posts For Thread: What would you do with this scenario?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27441525/what-would-you-do-with-this-scenarioYou price up an event, we'll use a football match with the home win, draw, away win, and you can back at 2.2 on a team you have priced up at 1.9. You place your bet at 2.2 and then the price comes in to 1.7 so you have very good value. However if thac) I would now look at the new odds of the other team and the draw. I would now back whichever of those two is value against my prices. If both were now value, I would back them both.What I would never do is (b). If you blindly green up simply by layhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27441525/what-would-you-do-with-this-scenario?post_id=493065925#493065925c) I would now look at the new odds of the other team and the draw. I would now back whichever of those two is value against my prices. If both were now value, I would back them both.What I would never do is (b). If you blindly green up simply by layTue, 19 Apr 2011 17:25:49 -0500Had a look at the posts, and it's easy. Tobermory getsit right recognising the situation as two value bets. The first bet, a back at 2.20 is made not knowing the pricewill contract. When the price HAS dropped to 1.70 it is a bet, not because of the 2https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27441525/what-would-you-do-with-this-scenario?post_id=493062845#493062845Had a look at the posts, and it's easy. Tobermory getsit right recognising the situation as two value bets. The first bet, a back at 2.20 is made not knowing the pricewill contract. When the price HAS dropped to 1.70 it is a bet, not because of the 2Tue, 19 Apr 2011 16:47:24 -0500I haven't read the whole thread (just spotted it) but my first move would be to check first to see if I have made a mistake inmy compilation. If happy, I would stay with it for a while, (I think), the reason being is I've never had a situation like thttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27441525/what-would-you-do-with-this-scenario?post_id=493057265#493057265I haven't read the whole thread (just spotted it) but my first move would be to check first to see if I have made a mistake inmy compilation. If happy, I would stay with it for a while, (I think), the reason being is I've never had a situation like tTue, 19 Apr 2011 15:48:16 -0500When it comes to betting as an "investment", bettors should ideally be risk-neutral: as long as outlay is sustainable, expected utility should be equivalent to expected value.Probit, I agree w/ this; I was trying to suggest that bettors make sub-optihttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27441525/what-would-you-do-with-this-scenario?post_id=492917369#492917369When it comes to betting as an "investment", bettors should ideally be risk-neutral: as long as outlay is sustainable, expected utility should be equivalent to expected value.Probit, I agree w/ this; I was trying to suggest that bettors make sub-optiMon, 18 Apr 2011 08:28:56 -0500I'm assuming the fundamentals haven't changed (possible fixing, etc) and 1.9 remains the estimated true odds? For most people who have not fully quantified their edge and thus cannot quantify their confidence in 1.9 being the true odds, a fractionalhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27441525/what-would-you-do-with-this-scenario?post_id=492849473#492849473I'm assuming the fundamentals haven't changed (possible fixing, etc) and 1.9 remains the estimated true odds? For most people who have not fully quantified their edge and thus cannot quantify their confidence in 1.9 being the true odds, a fractionalSun, 17 Apr 2011 13:43:38 -0500^Which is what I expect almost everyone that makes money does. In all of human activity risk evaluation is one of the most underdeveloped.We are hardwired to want to win, which is an asset in most activities, as winning equals success. In betting makhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27441525/what-would-you-do-with-this-scenario?post_id=492827153#492827153^Which is what I expect almost everyone that makes money does. In all of human activity risk evaluation is one of the most underdeveloped.We are hardwired to want to win, which is an asset in most activities, as winning equals success. In betting makSun, 17 Apr 2011 09:59:04 -0500Alex, a microeconomist called Kahneman won the Nobel Prize for demonstrating that people are risk-averse in situations of gain (e.g. greening up) but risk-seeking to a greater degree in situations of loss (i.e. they are very averse to redding up andhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27441525/what-would-you-do-with-this-scenario?post_id=492825669#492825669Alex, a microeconomist called Kahneman won the Nobel Prize for demonstrating that people are risk-averse in situations of gain (e.g. greening up) but risk-seeking to a greater degree in situations of loss (i.e. they are very averse to redding up andSun, 17 Apr 2011 09:38:10 -0500I had virtually exactly this situation yesterday just excepting the right price was absolutely certain as I could measure it and arb it on a parallel market. I didn't think about it long and took buzzers solution and not mine. The price has since mhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27441525/what-would-you-do-with-this-scenario?post_id=492600157#492600157I had virtually exactly this situation yesterday just excepting the right price was absolutely certain as I could measure it and arb it on a parallel market. I didn't think about it long and took buzzers solution and not mine. The price has since mThu, 14 Apr 2011 22:37:46 -0500Anna you aren't American by chance?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27441525/what-would-you-do-with-this-scenario?post_id=492545589#492545589Anna you aren't American by chance?Thu, 14 Apr 2011 12:51:28 -0500You guys all think much to complicated imo :)https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27441525/what-would-you-do-with-this-scenario?post_id=492544993#492544993You guys all think much to complicated imo :)Thu, 14 Apr 2011 12:45:00 -0500