https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27355349/stakingI haven't posted on this forum before, but would like to ask a question to those who know far more about it than I. I should say at this point I don't bet to make a living, just on the side for fun and generally some spare cash if all goes well. Duehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27355349/staking?post_id=491408213#491408213Fair reasons. Can't argue with that tbf.Mon, 04 Apr 2011 12:20:07 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27355349/staking?post_id=491285061#491285061Read this thread last night and not gone through it all again but picking up on one point which I think I remember correctly.Lori, agree, in the main, with your view on the 14% ROI. But, if you are capable of picking out enormous value bets then it wSun, 03 Apr 2011 06:34:18 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27355349/staking?post_id=491193413#491193413Lori Joined: 20 Apr 04Replies: 32590 02 Apr 11 09:00 Back to the thing with Kenilworth. For those looking for a sensible staking plan without the bells and whistles, I think that's about as good as it gets.I'd probably change it so my better betsSat, 02 Apr 2011 06:30:39 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27355349/staking?post_id=491184409#491184409By the way, I don't want to give the impression to anyone that overstaking is good, it's not, it's the biggest crime you can commit in this game and my fear of it holds me back.It is however important to keep a sense of scale. If you find a superb beSat, 02 Apr 2011 03:16:16 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27355349/staking?post_id=491183969#491183969Back to the thing with Kenilworth. For those looking for a sensible staking plan without the bells and whistles, I think that's about as good as it gets.I'd probably change it so my better bets are staked to win twice as much or something, but it makSat, 02 Apr 2011 03:00:47 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27355349/staking?post_id=491183889#491183889but the problem is the effect when you get it wrong. My posts above show you the effects of getting it wrong using the exact numbers you gave me. EG isn't a red herring, it's what Kelly is all about. I've shown above that you can price a 4/6 shot atSat, 02 Apr 2011 02:57:18 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27355349/staking?post_id=491134929#491134929Lori 01 Apr 11 19:22 Actually, I think I've just worked out what you're talking about.Do you really price things up as evens 11/10 5/4 6/4 7/4 etc rather than use an exact percentage?If so, this whole discussion is ridiculous.exactlyFri, 01 Apr 2011 14:36:03 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27355349/staking?post_id=491131861#491131861The actual cost of the overstaking in each instance:If you had staked 16% in the first case, you'd have an EG of around 1.19% instead of 0.91%If you had staked 2.5% in the second case you'd have an EG of around 0.35% instead of 0.04%So the overstakinFri, 01 Apr 2011 14:06:18 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27355349/staking?post_id=491131165#491131165Here's the raw numbers as it's very possible I've made a mistake as I'm rather tired.EG p o bet size2.62% 0.6363 1.91 0.23560.91% 0.6 1.91 0.23561.40% 0.125 13 0.05210.04% 0.1 13 0.0521Fri, 01 Apr 2011 13:59:38 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27355349/staking?post_id=491131041#491131041Ok, so I ran the numbers, they're very close (having put back into a Kelly calc and checked) but are about .03% out in places. For the case where you get 10/11 about a 4/6 shot that you made 4/7You think you're getting an Expected Growth of 2.62%, buFri, 01 Apr 2011 13:58:34 -0500