New Posts For Thread: QUESTION OF PROBABILITY WITH A BIT MORE DEPTHhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27322181/question-of-probability-with-a-bit-more-depthSimplified but a question about probability. Approaching things generally.A team plays 5 matches, losing the 1st match and winning 4 in a row. In simple teams, the team wins 80% of its matches (4 for 5)It wins the 6th match. Now, based on readingsOf course Tobermory has the right answer (as usual), such a boring old fart he is at times.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27322181/question-of-probability-with-a-bit-more-depth?post_id=490651573#490651573Of course Tobermory has the right answer (as usual), such a boring old fart he is at times.Mon, 28 Mar 2011 11:40:28 -0500Sorry, I have tried to post a few times but firefox and betfair not friendly these days.kenilworth, have a view but not "the answer" (Only Brian Cox seems to be close to the 'answers' these days).As mentioned, starting with a basic view. Thus, the "https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27322181/question-of-probability-with-a-bit-more-depth?post_id=490632845#490632845Sorry, I have tried to post a few times but firefox and betfair not friendly these days.kenilworth, have a view but not "the answer" (Only Brian Cox seems to be close to the 'answers' these days).As mentioned, starting with a basic view. Thus, the "Mon, 28 Mar 2011 08:07:54 -0500That's an extreme example Maximum, though correct of course..The probablity of winning the 7th match - or any match - depnds upon the difference in abilty between the teams. The most difficult of the 6 games may have been Wolves at Home ,game 7 mighthttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27322181/question-of-probability-with-a-bit-more-depth?post_id=490617993#490617993That's an extreme example Maximum, though correct of course..The probablity of winning the 7th match - or any match - depnds upon the difference in abilty between the teams. The most difficult of the 6 games may have been Wolves at Home ,game 7 mightMon, 28 Mar 2011 03:29:05 -0500maximum, could you repeat that ?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27322181/question-of-probability-with-a-bit-more-depth?post_id=490591957#490591957maximum, could you repeat that ?Sun, 27 Mar 2011 17:59:49 -0500I'm tempted to jump in front of Bayes with a 1.16 lay....https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27322181/question-of-probability-with-a-bit-more-depth?post_id=490566921#490566921I'm tempted to jump in front of Bayes with a 1.16 lay....Sun, 27 Mar 2011 13:43:48 -0500This isn't a question of probability :)At its simplest the team has won 5 of 6 matches, suggesting one estimate for the 'true' probability is 83.33%.But of course this assumes all opponents are equal measure, and is a very small sample.Let's just prehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27322181/question-of-probability-with-a-bit-more-depth?post_id=490540693#490540693This isn't a question of probability :)At its simplest the team has won 5 of 6 matches, suggesting one estimate for the 'true' probability is 83.33%.But of course this assumes all opponents are equal measure, and is a very small sample.Let's just preSun, 27 Mar 2011 08:10:30 -0500To my mind the question cannot be accurately answered due to lack information about the terms of each previous match.However, an inaccurate answer () by converting Win and Lose into a 3 points, Zero points form would be 65.85%.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27322181/question-of-probability-with-a-bit-more-depth?post_id=490531073#490531073To my mind the question cannot be accurately answered due to lack information about the terms of each previous match.However, an inaccurate answer () by converting Win and Lose into a 3 points, Zero points form would be 65.85%.Sun, 27 Mar 2011 04:31:58 -0500SHAPESHIFTER, is this one of those ''I know the answer, are you as clever as me questions '' ?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27322181/question-of-probability-with-a-bit-more-depth?post_id=490509473#490509473SHAPESHIFTER, is this one of those ''I know the answer, are you as clever as me questions '' ?Sat, 26 Mar 2011 19:22:19 -0500That's only because you have 5 nipples, a medallion, and wear an open necked shirt .https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27322181/question-of-probability-with-a-bit-more-depth?post_id=490479781#490479781That's only because you have 5 nipples, a medallion, and wear an open necked shirt .Sat, 26 Mar 2011 13:36:00 -0500that's the reason we count in 10s btwSpeak for yourself. I count hexadecimally.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27322181/question-of-probability-with-a-bit-more-depth?post_id=490470937#490470937that's the reason we count in 10s btwSpeak for yourself. I count hexadecimally.Sat, 26 Mar 2011 11:55:51 -0500