New Posts For Thread: Help with goal expectancyhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27308601/help-with-goal-expectancyHi can any one tell me how to calculate the correct odds for over/under 2.5 goals, if the goal expectancy is 2.9 goals in the gameThanksThat is interesting although i have never been keen on laying around those double digit prices.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27308601/help-with-goal-expectancy?post_id=490548545#490548545That is interesting although i have never been keen on laying around those double digit prices.Sun, 27 Mar 2011 09:58:26 -0500Laying 0-0's in good liquidity matches can be profitable because punters hold the price up for too long, hence at a certain point the price is too big and becomes a back.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27308601/help-with-goal-expectancy?post_id=490546349#490546349Laying 0-0's in good liquidity matches can be profitable because punters hold the price up for too long, hence at a certain point the price is too big and becomes a back.Sun, 27 Mar 2011 09:30:35 -0500Backing a goal at the same point in goalless matches shows a loss long term.Are you saying that the price of a goal being scored at 0-0 is inherently incorrect,that it would therefore pay to back 0-0, or are you talking about a specific pointafter thhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27308601/help-with-goal-expectancy?post_id=490529937#490529937Backing a goal at the same point in goalless matches shows a loss long term.Are you saying that the price of a goal being scored at 0-0 is inherently incorrect,that it would therefore pay to back 0-0, or are you talking about a specific pointafter thSun, 27 Mar 2011 03:39:23 -0500I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying that at specific points of matches as a whole generalisation over thousands of examples, backing another goal after a goal pays a profit long term. Backing a goal at the same point in goalless matches shows a lhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27308601/help-with-goal-expectancy?post_id=490514897#490514897I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying that at specific points of matches as a whole generalisation over thousands of examples, backing another goal after a goal pays a profit long term. Backing a goal at the same point in goalless matches shows a lSat, 26 Mar 2011 20:40:19 -0500I suggested half time as it is a fixed point in every match. Half time oddsare usually automatically related to the betting on match odds, goal expectancy,etc., so if the betting is 6/4, 11/5, 5/2, goals expected, say 2.6 then press a button and youhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27308601/help-with-goal-expectancy?post_id=490508861#490508861I suggested half time as it is a fixed point in every match. Half time oddsare usually automatically related to the betting on match odds, goal expectancy,etc., so if the betting is 6/4, 11/5, 5/2, goals expected, say 2.6 then press a button and youSat, 26 Mar 2011 19:14:38 -0500You would also need to know the half time odds for each match, as matches that kicked off at the same odds will show different odds at half time depending on goals, i.e. a goalless 10.0 kick off will likely be 3.5, and a 1-0 likely 3.7 at half time,https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27308601/help-with-goal-expectancy?post_id=490498057#490498057You would also need to know the half time odds for each match, as matches that kicked off at the same odds will show different odds at half time depending on goals, i.e. a goalless 10.0 kick off will likely be 3.5, and a 1-0 likely 3.7 at half time,Sat, 26 Mar 2011 16:56:40 -0500As 92% of matches produce a goal it would therefore be the simple thingto buy goals if what you say is correct, or even just to wait for a goalthen buy. The spread firms are quite good at what they do, and as soon as a goal is scored, they adjust thehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27308601/help-with-goal-expectancy?post_id=490434105#490434105As 92% of matches produce a goal it would therefore be the simple thingto buy goals if what you say is correct, or even just to wait for a goalthen buy. The spread firms are quite good at what they do, and as soon as a goal is scored, they adjust theSat, 26 Mar 2011 01:27:19 -0500There is no evidence of a goal being more likely after a goalThere is evidence Kenilworth, although it's not quite as simple as just saying a goal is more likely after a goal. I have records for over 30000 matches that show the reformed odds after ahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27308601/help-with-goal-expectancy?post_id=490424569#490424569There is no evidence of a goal being more likely after a goalThere is evidence Kenilworth, although it's not quite as simple as just saying a goal is more likely after a goal. I have records for over 30000 matches that show the reformed odds after aFri, 25 Mar 2011 22:02:02 -0500A 2.7 expectancy with a one goal favourite will have a distribution of 1.85 fav - 0.85 outsider, no reason why that shouldn't be, and IMOwon't be any different from equal favourites with the same goal expectancy. Where's the evidence that contradictshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27308601/help-with-goal-expectancy?post_id=490409877#490409877A 2.7 expectancy with a one goal favourite will have a distribution of 1.85 fav - 0.85 outsider, no reason why that shouldn't be, and IMOwon't be any different from equal favourites with the same goal expectancy. Where's the evidence that contradictsFri, 25 Mar 2011 18:59:28 -0500A 2.7 expectancy with a one goal favourite will have a distribution ofhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27308601/help-with-goal-expectancy?post_id=490408865#490408865A 2.7 expectancy with a one goal favourite will have a distribution ofFri, 25 Mar 2011 18:48:48 -0500