New Posts For Thread: Edge – What is it? Does it matter?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27128461/edge-what-is-it-does-it-matterEdge this edge that, pretty much, that is all anyone talks about on here when saying that is the way to win. But what is an edge?I have made money for the last 4 years gambling on premiership footie (small stakes) with about a 12% ROI. What is my edIs the OP claiming 12% profit over 4 years betting,around 40 bets per year ?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27128461/edge-what-is-it-does-it-matter?post_id=488404869#488404869Is the OP claiming 12% profit over 4 years betting,around 40 bets per year ?Mon, 07 Mar 2011 23:34:36 -0600Hello Tobermory, the reason for 107-108% is that I am pricing it as a bookie, as exchanges don't need to worry about pricing up markets (I know there are exceptions). When i do it at that price it is then easier for me to say that i have done it incohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27128461/edge-what-is-it-does-it-matter?post_id=488084041#488084041Hello Tobermory, the reason for 107-108% is that I am pricing it as a bookie, as exchanges don't need to worry about pricing up markets (I know there are exceptions). When i do it at that price it is then easier for me to say that i have done it incoSat, 05 Mar 2011 06:32:47 -0600Depends how many games you did i suppose. If there are a lot of games in that sample then maybe you do have an edge over the bookies. it also depends how well you know your football. Someone who knows little about football I would say was lucky, somehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27128461/edge-what-is-it-does-it-matter?post_id=488074541#488074541Depends how many games you did i suppose. If there are a lot of games in that sample then maybe you do have an edge over the bookies. it also depends how well you know your football. Someone who knows little about football I would say was lucky, someSat, 05 Mar 2011 03:45:04 -0600Yes UA, i expect plenty do, but why price to 107% , surely better to do it at 100%I have a ratings table that converts to prices at 100%, some people may even do it to 95% just to be carefulhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27128461/edge-what-is-it-does-it-matter?post_id=488030041#488030041Yes UA, i expect plenty do, but why price to 107% , surely better to do it at 100%I have a ratings table that converts to prices at 100%, some people may even do it to 95% just to be carefulFri, 04 Mar 2011 16:18:26 -0600Egde = Zulu principle, no more no less.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27128461/edge-what-is-it-does-it-matter?post_id=488024881#488024881Egde = Zulu principle, no more no less.Fri, 04 Mar 2011 15:30:01 -0600That's fair enough SquirrelJ just a shame you missed out on a higher price. With regards to your opening post I have a situation and a question for you.A few years ago 2007/08 i decided to try and predict what the EPL game prices should be for as manhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27128461/edge-what-is-it-does-it-matter?post_id=488020633#488020633That's fair enough SquirrelJ just a shame you missed out on a higher price. With regards to your opening post I have a situation and a question for you.A few years ago 2007/08 i decided to try and predict what the EPL game prices should be for as manFri, 04 Mar 2011 14:54:41 -0600There was a reasoning behind the fewer draws that year.Ave goals per game were up a fair bit from the previous year. More goals =less draws.Was probably just a blip looking back though.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27128461/edge-what-is-it-does-it-matter?post_id=487967201#487967201There was a reasoning behind the fewer draws that year.Ave goals per game were up a fair bit from the previous year. More goals =less draws.Was probably just a blip looking back though.Fri, 04 Mar 2011 06:08:56 -0600The reason Magician piled in was because the bookies (and Betfair draw prices) had increased due to the unusually low amount of draws in the early part of last season's Premiership.The draws, subsequently did "revert-to-mean" (note, not over compensahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27128461/edge-what-is-it-does-it-matter?post_id=487966049#487966049The reason Magician piled in was because the bookies (and Betfair draw prices) had increased due to the unusually low amount of draws in the early part of last season's Premiership.The draws, subsequently did "revert-to-mean" (note, not over compensaFri, 04 Mar 2011 05:53:03 -0600I think the law of large numbers is getting mixed up with reversion to the mean, it is not applicable to the draw in a football match peoplehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27128461/edge-what-is-it-does-it-matter?post_id=487964629#487964629I think the law of large numbers is getting mixed up with reversion to the mean, it is not applicable to the draw in a football match peopleFri, 04 Mar 2011 05:27:02 -0600maybe we should all back the draw for every EPL game lefthttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/27128461/edge-what-is-it-does-it-matter?post_id=487959901#487959901maybe we should all back the draw for every EPL game leftFri, 04 Mar 2011 04:23:14 -0600