New Posts For Thread: SHOULD YOU GET OUT WHILE YOU CANhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26990477/should-you-get-out-while-you-canWHEN TRADINGaye robot, that's not what I'm saying. As cpfc4me states, Kelly (or an extension of to include current position) allows you to do what I say. It's not about predicting where the market will go, but knowing what to do when it gets there.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26990477/should-you-get-out-while-you-can?post_id=486328297#486328297aye robot, that's not what I'm saying. As cpfc4me states, Kelly (or an extension of to include current position) allows you to do what I say. It's not about predicting where the market will go, but knowing what to do when it gets there.Fri, 18 Feb 2011 01:01:13 -0600Give me a P&L, a bankroll, a calculated price and an available market price and I can calculate what to do to maximise long-term growth of bank.Kelly already did that for you.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26990477/should-you-get-out-while-you-can?post_id=486180457#486180457Give me a P&L, a bankroll, a calculated price and an available market price and I can calculate what to do to maximise long-term growth of bank.Kelly already did that for you.Wed, 16 Feb 2011 20:53:10 -0600If the proportions are right (easily calculable and happy to show you how)Go on then Jabmast - If a horse is trading at 2.1 when true value is 2,what is the probability of it matching at 2 before the off? And after the off?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26990477/should-you-get-out-while-you-can?post_id=486151017#486151017If the proportions are right (easily calculable and happy to show you how)Go on then Jabmast - If a horse is trading at 2.1 when true value is 2,what is the probability of it matching at 2 before the off? And after the off?Wed, 16 Feb 2011 16:14:05 -0600No need jabI'm not a trader as must be obvious by now.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26990477/should-you-get-out-while-you-can?post_id=486138221#486138221No need jabI'm not a trader as must be obvious by now.Wed, 16 Feb 2011 14:49:01 -0600The combination of do it in proportion to the % movement for or against you and most often prices are fluctuating around like a yo-yo I find results in quite the opposite of will result in the back/lay spread killing you. If the proportions are righhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26990477/should-you-get-out-while-you-can?post_id=486133405#486133405The combination of do it in proportion to the % movement for or against you and most often prices are fluctuating around like a yo-yo I find results in quite the opposite of will result in the back/lay spread killing you. If the proportions are righWed, 16 Feb 2011 14:11:06 -0600Btw perhaps the point maybe really is not that if you should green or red out out but when. And please don't say that you only do it in proportion to the % movement for or against you. I real life, most often prices are fluctuating around like a yo-yhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26990477/should-you-get-out-while-you-can?post_id=486118493#486118493Btw perhaps the point maybe really is not that if you should green or red out out but when. And please don't say that you only do it in proportion to the % movement for or against you. I real life, most often prices are fluctuating around like a yo-yWed, 16 Feb 2011 12:03:42 -0600Godd for you jab.I suppose we'll never know if you're right or wrong till we get to the end will we ?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26990477/should-you-get-out-while-you-can?post_id=486117713#486117713Godd for you jab.I suppose we'll never know if you're right or wrong till we get to the end will we ?Wed, 16 Feb 2011 11:56:04 -0600The only thing that is subjective in this is the perceived edge. If you have a high confidence in that (or a %age consistent confidence in it) then the maths I don't believe to be subjective.Give me a P&L, a bankroll, a calculated price and an availahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26990477/should-you-get-out-while-you-can?post_id=486110749#486110749The only thing that is subjective in this is the perceived edge. If you have a high confidence in that (or a %age consistent confidence in it) then the maths I don't believe to be subjective.Give me a P&L, a bankroll, a calculated price and an availaWed, 16 Feb 2011 10:49:54 -0600Btw I've only ever seen convincing maths supporting " greening out" on a retrospective basis.That is persons go back and analyse the price movements after the fact and say that this and that time were clearly the optimum times to take profits or cuthttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26990477/should-you-get-out-while-you-can?post_id=486109741#486109741Btw I've only ever seen convincing maths supporting " greening out" on a retrospective basis.That is persons go back and analyse the price movements after the fact and say that this and that time were clearly the optimum times to take profits or cutWed, 16 Feb 2011 10:40:24 -0600But how do you know such trends are not just momentary and can reverse very quickly ?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26990477/should-you-get-out-while-you-can?post_id=486108217#486108217But how do you know such trends are not just momentary and can reverse very quickly ?Wed, 16 Feb 2011 10:27:41 -0600