New Posts For Thread: Probablility Of Goals when sides are of similar strength??https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26977397/probablility-of-goals-when-sides-are-of-similar-strengthRegarding the calculation of how many goals will be scored in a football match. I read that the relative strength of teams is more important than goalscoring records,so these two issues can be weighted accordingly. If it is fair to say two mid-tableOne major flaw in Pullein's method, or at least the method I recall he mentions in his book, is his failure to differentiate between different types of games. e.g. home favourite / away favourite. As far as I remember his analysis appears to just lumhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26977397/probablility-of-goals-when-sides-are-of-similar-strength?post_id=485636293#485636293One major flaw in Pullein's method, or at least the method I recall he mentions in his book, is his failure to differentiate between different types of games. e.g. home favourite / away favourite. As far as I remember his analysis appears to just lumSat, 12 Feb 2011 06:38:08 -0600Is that Pullein's method Missingrib?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26977397/probablility-of-goals-when-sides-are-of-similar-strength?post_id=485634089#485634089Is that Pullein's method Missingrib?Sat, 12 Feb 2011 06:10:47 -0600..and yes also agree team news crucial, eg Inter Milan with/without Eto'o large baring on goal expectationhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26977397/probablility-of-goals-when-sides-are-of-similar-strength?post_id=485620161#485620161..and yes also agree team news crucial, eg Inter Milan with/without Eto'o large baring on goal expectationSat, 12 Feb 2011 01:23:25 -0600Yes, i agree there, but how do we quantify that. Maybe we can't. Apparently goalscoring form, number of goals etc is only about 25% of whats crucial in determining goal expectation. That part is easy to work out , its the fact that if 75% importancehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26977397/probablility-of-goals-when-sides-are-of-similar-strength?post_id=485620101#485620101Yes, i agree there, but how do we quantify that. Maybe we can't. Apparently goalscoring form, number of goals etc is only about 25% of whats crucial in determining goal expectation. That part is easy to work out , its the fact that if 75% importanceSat, 12 Feb 2011 01:21:40 -0600You'd expect more goals from Arsenal v Borrussia Dortmund (equally matched) than Stoke v Blackburn (also about equal) due to style of playhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26977397/probablility-of-goals-when-sides-are-of-similar-strength?post_id=485586341#485586341You'd expect more goals from Arsenal v Borrussia Dortmund (equally matched) than Stoke v Blackburn (also about equal) due to style of playFri, 11 Feb 2011 16:24:55 -0600Does that mean then that anything can be expected to happen goal total wise, in these cases of even rating ?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26977397/probablility-of-goals-when-sides-are-of-similar-strength?post_id=485584773#485584773Does that mean then that anything can be expected to happen goal total wise, in these cases of even rating ?Fri, 11 Feb 2011 16:11:44 -0600If you have rated the teams as equal (which is how I understood his post) then the only advantage is the home team advantage. IMO.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26977397/probablility-of-goals-when-sides-are-of-similar-strength?post_id=485584537#485584537If you have rated the teams as equal (which is how I understood his post) then the only advantage is the home team advantage. IMO.Fri, 11 Feb 2011 16:09:52 -0600Irregardless of table position or recent form, or injuries or anything else that may or may not affect the outcome ?Honest questions from someone who has never ever based a bet on goal expectation or supremacy or goal whatever in his whole life.Not lhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26977397/probablility-of-goals-when-sides-are-of-similar-strength?post_id=485584377#485584377Irregardless of table position or recent form, or injuries or anything else that may or may not affect the outcome ?Honest questions from someone who has never ever based a bet on goal expectation or supremacy or goal whatever in his whole life.Not lFri, 11 Feb 2011 16:08:31 -06000.3 for the home team supremacyhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26977397/probablility-of-goals-when-sides-are-of-similar-strength?post_id=485582417#4855824170.3 for the home team supremacyFri, 11 Feb 2011 15:48:58 -0600Regarding the calculation of how many goals will be scored in a football match. I read that the relative strength of teams is more important than goalscoring records,so these two issues can be weighted accordingly. If it is fair to say two mid-tablehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26977397/probablility-of-goals-when-sides-are-of-similar-strength?post_id=485580905#485580905Regarding the calculation of how many goals will be scored in a football match. I read that the relative strength of teams is more important than goalscoring records,so these two issues can be weighted accordingly. If it is fair to say two mid-tableFri, 11 Feb 2011 15:31:46 -0600