New Posts For Thread: I've started a blog on betting to buy a house in Floridahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26631929/ive-started-a-blog-on-betting-to-buy-a-house-in-floridaIf anyone is interested I have started a blog on my quest to build up a betting bank to achieve my dream of buying a house in Florida. Everyone is welcome to follow and I will share the results and system as I go and discuss all with everyone.Slicer,Mr. Kelly would disagree...but he, unfortunately, collapsed on a New York street with a stroke without ever using his theory. There you go...I guess the lesson is, don't put it off. Go for it.Ocean,Careful with the Kelly Criterion. Perhaps beshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26631929/ive-started-a-blog-on-betting-to-buy-a-house-in-florida?post_id=482125181#482125181Slicer,Mr. Kelly would disagree...but he, unfortunately, collapsed on a New York street with a stroke without ever using his theory. There you go...I guess the lesson is, don't put it off. Go for it.Ocean,Careful with the Kelly Criterion. Perhaps besWed, 19 Jan 2011 09:55:00 -0600THIS UNIT IS THE ESSENCE OF DR SLICER WOT HAS BEEN PRESERVED.Save your're time and you're monet. If Kelly worked, the inventor would not be extrapolating theses about mathermaticques, he would be living it up in Barbados, relaxing around a pool beinghttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26631929/ive-started-a-blog-on-betting-to-buy-a-house-in-florida?post_id=482112505#482112505THIS UNIT IS THE ESSENCE OF DR SLICER WOT HAS BEEN PRESERVED.Save your're time and you're monet. If Kelly worked, the inventor would not be extrapolating theses about mathermaticques, he would be living it up in Barbados, relaxing around a pool beingWed, 19 Jan 2011 07:39:18 -0600i have started reading on kelly.. i am still skeptical of the whole hype around it but will give it a try.. do keep us updated on your progress snapperhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26631929/ive-started-a-blog-on-betting-to-buy-a-house-in-florida?post_id=482108801#482108801i have started reading on kelly.. i am still skeptical of the whole hype around it but will give it a try.. do keep us updated on your progress snapperWed, 19 Jan 2011 07:00:57 -0600sorry ocean, seems I'm screwed up my Kelly calculator here...82 % strike rate, 4% edge making 1.30 bets, with 5% commission(let's say)...correct Kelly Stake should be 18% of your bank. If I understand the stats correctly...https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26631929/ive-started-a-blog-on-betting-to-buy-a-house-in-florida?post_id=482097033#482097033sorry ocean, seems I'm screwed up my Kelly calculator here...82 % strike rate, 4% edge making 1.30 bets, with 5% commission(let's say)...correct Kelly Stake should be 18% of your bank. If I understand the stats correctly...Wed, 19 Jan 2011 03:53:09 -0600for kelly you need to know/assess the 'correct' probability of success of such bet. does your system provide this information?I'm not using Kelly staking for exactly this reason. I am calculating the edge as I go along on my blog. My model is set fohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26631929/ive-started-a-blog-on-betting-to-buy-a-house-in-florida?post_id=482096273#482096273for kelly you need to know/assess the 'correct' probability of success of such bet. does your system provide this information?I'm not using Kelly staking for exactly this reason. I am calculating the edge as I go along on my blog. My model is set foWed, 19 Jan 2011 03:37:58 -0600ocean,well, I'm not so sure what your bank is, but I believe that Mr Kelly would be happy to see you betting more aggressively..if indeed you have a 4% edge if I understand your stats correctly, and you are winning about 76% of the time...I think thahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26631929/ive-started-a-blog-on-betting-to-buy-a-house-in-florida?post_id=482095841#482095841ocean,well, I'm not so sure what your bank is, but I believe that Mr Kelly would be happy to see you betting more aggressively..if indeed you have a 4% edge if I understand your stats correctly, and you are winning about 76% of the time...I think thaWed, 19 Jan 2011 03:28:21 -0600if you look at just the probability of score being over 1.5 without historical stats or team news, there are only 3 scores out of possible 17 in correct score market that constitute under 1.5.. 14/17 again 82%dangerous and incorrect calculation. -fihttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26631929/ive-started-a-blog-on-betting-to-buy-a-house-in-florida?post_id=482063081#482063081if you look at just the probability of score being over 1.5 without historical stats or team news, there are only 3 scores out of possible 17 in correct score market that constitute under 1.5.. 14/17 again 82%dangerous and incorrect calculation. -fiTue, 18 Jan 2011 18:15:55 -0600thanks mouse trap... the easy calculator looks goodhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26631929/ive-started-a-blog-on-betting-to-buy-a-house-in-florida?post_id=482057909#482057909thanks mouse trap... the easy calculator looks goodTue, 18 Jan 2011 17:25:33 -0600isn't the probability also 82% given that these many come in over the test period.. or if you look at just the probability of score being over 1.5 without historical stats or team news, there are only 3 scores out of possible 17 in correct score markhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26631929/ive-started-a-blog-on-betting-to-buy-a-house-in-florida?post_id=482057509#482057509isn't the probability also 82% given that these many come in over the test period.. or if you look at just the probability of score being over 1.5 without historical stats or team news, there are only 3 scores out of possible 17 in correct score markTue, 18 Jan 2011 17:22:07 -0600a bit heavier reading on kelly http://bit.ly/g9xXycand an easy one http://bit.ly/gaKqVyhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26631929/ive-started-a-blog-on-betting-to-buy-a-house-in-florida?post_id=482057373#482057373a bit heavier reading on kelly http://bit.ly/g9xXycand an easy one http://bit.ly/gaKqVyTue, 18 Jan 2011 17:21:04 -0600