New Posts For Thread: When kelly worsens your results .......https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26409621/when-kelly-worsens-your-resultsI have been backtesting one of my systems , replacing level stakes with kelly (& half-kelly stakes). Kelly makes the backtesting results significantly worse. This implies to me that I am not calculating the edge correctly. I am pretty confident thatguess if you make the margin of error large enough you end up with level stakes.or more likely, no-bet.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26409621/when-kelly-worsens-your-results?post_id=478024781#478024781guess if you make the margin of error large enough you end up with level stakes.or more likely, no-bet.Tue, 14 Dec 2010 11:49:12 -0600@ Compound Magic As the OP queries "Kelly' turning a level stake win into a loss. I suspect the sample is not large enough or that his level stake profit is derived from a higher winning % at the longer prices. my sample is 800 bets which I think shohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26409621/when-kelly-worsens-your-results?post_id=478020685#478020685@ Compound Magic As the OP queries "Kelly' turning a level stake win into a loss. I suspect the sample is not large enough or that his level stake profit is derived from a higher winning % at the longer prices. my sample is 800 bets which I think shoTue, 14 Dec 2010 11:14:19 -0600Strangely the best explanation of kelly I have ever seen is in the Daily Mirror's book called Better Betting where he takes an example of tossing a coin using kelly staking to show how it is likely to improve your return no matter the outcome (win/lohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26409621/when-kelly-worsens-your-results?post_id=477955389#477955389Strangely the best explanation of kelly I have ever seen is in the Daily Mirror's book called Better Betting where he takes an example of tossing a coin using kelly staking to show how it is likely to improve your return no matter the outcome (win/loMon, 13 Dec 2010 20:00:49 -0600https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26409621/when-kelly-worsens-your-results?post_id=477910377#477910377Mon, 13 Dec 2010 13:39:11 -0600I've just been re-reading this thread and have noticed that racingguru's contributions,to which both Lori and Sandown had responded, have mysteriously disappeared.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26409621/when-kelly-worsens-your-results?post_id=477909021#477909021I've just been re-reading this thread and have noticed that racingguru's contributions,to which both Lori and Sandown had responded, have mysteriously disappeared.Mon, 13 Dec 2010 13:27:13 -0600Thanks for views CM ......You say - "You must remember that as 'Kelly' has bigger bets on the losers than on the winners the difference plus commission plus a profit must be made up by 'Kelly' before it suggests a bet."===============================https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26409621/when-kelly-worsens-your-results?post_id=477898777#477898777Thanks for views CM ......You say - "You must remember that as 'Kelly' has bigger bets on the losers than on the winners the difference plus commission plus a profit must be made up by 'Kelly' before it suggests a bet."===============================Mon, 13 Dec 2010 11:57:52 -0600Hi DFC hope you are still making a quidIn regards to my post ~ turning a level stake loss into a profit using 'Kelly'.The likelihood is that showing a loss at level stakes is that you don't have an advantage % wise on a proportion of your bets so 'Kehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26409621/when-kelly-worsens-your-results?post_id=477888465#477888465Hi DFC hope you are still making a quidIn regards to my post ~ turning a level stake loss into a profit using 'Kelly'.The likelihood is that showing a loss at level stakes is that you don't have an advantage % wise on a proportion of your bets so 'KeMon, 13 Dec 2010 10:14:21 -0600The Investor - K said that a SMALL loss being made to LEVEL STAKES crude betting ........therefore in such specific circumstances .....applying your brain to bet consider the probability on each bet staked would probably lead to less amounts being aphttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26409621/when-kelly-worsens-your-results?post_id=477879121#477879121The Investor - K said that a SMALL loss being made to LEVEL STAKES crude betting ........therefore in such specific circumstances .....applying your brain to bet consider the probability on each bet staked would probably lead to less amounts being apMon, 13 Dec 2010 08:32:28 -0600DFCIRONMAN, Kelly can't turn a losing system into a winning one. Of course you are correct in saying that if someone successfully followed the procedure you described, they would start to make money. This is not an argument in favour of Kelly though,https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26409621/when-kelly-worsens-your-results?post_id=477878609#477878609DFCIRONMAN, Kelly can't turn a losing system into a winning one. Of course you are correct in saying that if someone successfully followed the procedure you described, they would start to make money. This is not an argument in favour of Kelly though,Mon, 13 Dec 2010 08:26:23 -0600Nice post CM.Where you can try to convince someone of a theory by words that are contrary to their convictions you will fail, butif you show them a practical and repeatable example you are quite likely to succeed.And even then it is still difficult!https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26409621/when-kelly-worsens-your-results?post_id=477877693#477877693Nice post CM.Where you can try to convince someone of a theory by words that are contrary to their convictions you will fail, butif you show them a practical and repeatable example you are quite likely to succeed.And even then it is still difficult!Mon, 13 Dec 2010 08:16:10 -0600