New Posts For Thread: Calling Kelly Expertshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26366589/calling-kelly-expertsI have been pricing up my own odds for a while now and have been using kelly staking on everything I've priced up, even when the edge is minimal. Recently though results have been less good particularly on those where the edge is small.I've looked atThat's him - yes.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26366589/calling-kelly-experts?post_id=478729057#478729057That's him - yes.Mon, 20 Dec 2010 06:25:01 -0600Joe is the football data guy isnt he? will have a look, cheershttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26366589/calling-kelly-experts?post_id=478728957#478728957Joe is the football data guy isnt he? will have a look, cheersMon, 20 Dec 2010 06:23:35 -0600Brendan, I would recommend "Fixed Odds Sports Betting: Statistical Forecasting and Risk Management - Joseph Buchdahl", http://www.amazon.co.uk/Fixed-Odds-Sports-Betting-Statistical/dp/1843440199this contains many staking plans (inc Kelly - though I shttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26366589/calling-kelly-experts?post_id=478728093#478728093Brendan, I would recommend "Fixed Odds Sports Betting: Statistical Forecasting and Risk Management - Joseph Buchdahl", http://www.amazon.co.uk/Fixed-Odds-Sports-Betting-Statistical/dp/1843440199this contains many staking plans (inc Kelly - though I sMon, 20 Dec 2010 06:06:47 -0600this one?http://www.amazon.co.uk/Better-Betting-Mirror/dp/1907324097Is it all horsey horsey stuff? i only do football. Happy to find good info anywhere thoughhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26366589/calling-kelly-experts?post_id=478723109#478723109this one?http://www.amazon.co.uk/Better-Betting-Mirror/dp/1907324097Is it all horsey horsey stuff? i only do football. Happy to find good info anywhere thoughMon, 20 Dec 2010 04:31:09 -0600Hi Brendanuk1Yes, have read Fortune's Formula - interesting book (in places) but could have done with a decent sub-editing job because the author does wander off the point many times which makes it a bit confusing. As I have said before, there is a rhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26366589/calling-kelly-experts?post_id=478682677#478682677Hi Brendanuk1Yes, have read Fortune's Formula - interesting book (in places) but could have done with a decent sub-editing job because the author does wander off the point many times which makes it a bit confusing. As I have said before, there is a rSun, 19 Dec 2010 17:43:52 -0600Anyone got any book recommendations for Kelly? Thinking of getting myself this for christmashttp://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0809046377/ref=cm_rdp_product/188-9474167-1155851Poundstones other works look interesting to, anyone read him?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26366589/calling-kelly-experts?post_id=477342929#477342929Anyone got any book recommendations for Kelly? Thinking of getting myself this for christmashttp://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0809046377/ref=cm_rdp_product/188-9474167-1155851Poundstones other works look interesting to, anyone read him?Thu, 09 Dec 2010 04:52:04 -0600oh I almost forgot (in true Columbo style)...for each bet used in the ROI calculations for Kelly, I have not increased my bank with wins and losses. I set the staking to always think the bank is 1 (number irrelevant, the important point being this dhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26366589/calling-kelly-experts?post_id=477267101#477267101oh I almost forgot (in true Columbo style)...for each bet used in the ROI calculations for Kelly, I have not increased my bank with wins and losses. I set the staking to always think the bank is 1 (number irrelevant, the important point being this dWed, 08 Dec 2010 13:11:09 -0600Thank you all for your thoughts/help on this and apologies for hijacking the thread.I have finally got round to doing some testing on my last 2 years bets. The results are looking extremely promising but I am wary of comparing apples and pairs......https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26366589/calling-kelly-experts?post_id=477266069#477266069Thank you all for your thoughts/help on this and apologies for hijacking the thread.I have finally got round to doing some testing on my last 2 years bets. The results are looking extremely promising but I am wary of comparing apples and pairs......Wed, 08 Dec 2010 13:01:23 -0600What do Kelly advocates do when the price drifts?Kelly determines the optimal proportion to stake given an independent estimate and an instantaneous price. If you take the current price, you apply the current kelly stake. If the price subsequently chhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26366589/calling-kelly-experts?post_id=476752133#476752133What do Kelly advocates do when the price drifts?Kelly determines the optimal proportion to stake given an independent estimate and an instantaneous price. If you take the current price, you apply the current kelly stake. If the price subsequently chSat, 04 Dec 2010 13:16:41 -0600Level stakes beats most staking plans but if you can accurately price up events kelly will optimise your returns. Most people who benefit from this will be those who produce statistical models where little or no human input has been involved on decidhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26366589/calling-kelly-experts?post_id=476730149#476730149Level stakes beats most staking plans but if you can accurately price up events kelly will optimise your returns. Most people who benefit from this will be those who produce statistical models where little or no human input has been involved on decidSat, 04 Dec 2010 10:19:13 -0600