New Posts For Thread: Monte Carlo Simulation and Excelhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26173905/monte-carlo-simulation-and-excelI'm not after the fine details, but i'm just wondering whether this will be an excel task or a vba task.Is it possible to run several Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS) and record the results in a series of cells for later analysis.I believe it may requirAs you know I'm working on a 5-7 year time frame with my system.I have been in the past level or down for close to 6 months, which is virtually 3/4 of a football year.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26173905/monte-carlo-simulation-and-excel?post_id=472726161#472726161As you know I'm working on a 5-7 year time frame with my system.I have been in the past level or down for close to 6 months, which is virtually 3/4 of a football year.Tue, 02 Nov 2010 21:28:22 -0500Good advice fafh, thanks. I have scaled back already, and I think I'll continue with it until christmas, and if no upturn signs by then, call it a dead edge.Interesting to hear you have "months and months and months stagnating at the same level", thahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26173905/monte-carlo-simulation-and-excel?post_id=472724757#472724757Good advice fafh, thanks. I have scaled back already, and I think I'll continue with it until christmas, and if no upturn signs by then, call it a dead edge.Interesting to hear you have "months and months and months stagnating at the same level", thaTue, 02 Nov 2010 21:13:21 -0500TrevhIf you think you know why it has gone flat, then stick with it.If not, then probably best to take it as a warning to get out while you are ahead.But most definitely whatever you do, scale right back till you see clear and obvious signs that it ihttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26173905/monte-carlo-simulation-and-excel?post_id=472722529#472722529TrevhIf you think you know why it has gone flat, then stick with it.If not, then probably best to take it as a warning to get out while you are ahead.But most definitely whatever you do, scale right back till you see clear and obvious signs that it iTue, 02 Nov 2010 20:49:10 -0500LOL, all this talk of "mental masturbation" and "tosses", I thought I'd logged on to the wrong forum for a moment Great link there Investor, which means a lot to me as I'm currently pondering whether or not to give up on one of my strategies that shohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26173905/monte-carlo-simulation-and-excel?post_id=472720249#472720249LOL, all this talk of "mental masturbation" and "tosses", I thought I'd logged on to the wrong forum for a moment Great link there Investor, which means a lot to me as I'm currently pondering whether or not to give up on one of my strategies that shoTue, 02 Nov 2010 20:24:26 -0500I agree with a lot you are saying.But I factor the whole element of good luck out, or if you prefer the other way, I factor what I think will be the worst case bad luck into everything I do.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26173905/monte-carlo-simulation-and-excel?post_id=472715809#472715809I agree with a lot you are saying.But I factor the whole element of good luck out, or if you prefer the other way, I factor what I think will be the worst case bad luck into everything I do.Tue, 02 Nov 2010 19:46:37 -0500No I think it's a useful technique that you can use to distance yourself from what you are doing and make an attempt to see if what you are doing is really working as well as you think it is.I did a coin toss simulation of 2,000 tosses. Probability hhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26173905/monte-carlo-simulation-and-excel?post_id=472712725#472712725No I think it's a useful technique that you can use to distance yourself from what you are doing and make an attempt to see if what you are doing is really working as well as you think it is.I did a coin toss simulation of 2,000 tosses. Probability hTue, 02 Nov 2010 19:21:49 -0500My God, it did.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26173905/monte-carlo-simulation-and-excel?post_id=472709853#472709853My God, it did.Tue, 02 Nov 2010 18:55:30 -0500InvestorIs simulation a form of mental masturbation perhaps ?Just joking.I also want to see if this phrase slips by the censor.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26173905/monte-carlo-simulation-and-excel?post_id=472709813#472709813InvestorIs simulation a form of mental masturbation perhaps ?Just joking.I also want to see if this phrase slips by the censor.Tue, 02 Nov 2010 18:55:16 -0500Isn't the biased coin a bad example. You know you have an edge there, so there is no need to do simulations. Simple maths shows you will make money over time. Similarly , if you know for certain that you have a betting edge in sports you don't need thttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26173905/monte-carlo-simulation-and-excel?post_id=472701889#472701889Isn't the biased coin a bad example. You know you have an edge there, so there is no need to do simulations. Simple maths shows you will make money over time. Similarly , if you know for certain that you have a betting edge in sports you don't need tTue, 02 Nov 2010 17:51:24 -0500dunno about BJ, it's not my bag, last thing i knew about it was that thorpe had run millions of simulations on a university computer to work out the edge, but that was back in the 60's or 70's so wouldn't suprise me if someone had gone beyond that. whttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26173905/monte-carlo-simulation-and-excel?post_id=472698789#472698789dunno about BJ, it's not my bag, last thing i knew about it was that thorpe had run millions of simulations on a university computer to work out the edge, but that was back in the 60's or 70's so wouldn't suprise me if someone had gone beyond that. wTue, 02 Nov 2010 17:30:47 -0500