New Posts For Thread: How would you price this up?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26025765/how-would-you-price-this-upIn a ficticious competition, A v B, your research shows that 'A' has won 44 out of 100 and 'B' has won 5 out of 10 against other competitors. They are facing each other for the 1st time.On the face of it 'B' has a better strike rate (50% v 44%)but ittobermory is disregarding B's stats because of the sample size, so whether B wins or loses the next match is irrelevent. I think its a good place to start where he has, assuming B to be of average ability and therefore pricing purely on A's stats.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26025765/how-would-you-price-this-up?post_id=469697597#469697597tobermory is disregarding B's stats because of the sample size, so whether B wins or loses the next match is irrelevent. I think its a good place to start where he has, assuming B to be of average ability and therefore pricing purely on A's stats.Mon, 11 Oct 2010 05:21:19 -0500I think when you have such a small sample size on someone, it's probably best to step away from the stats. If B happened to lose 1 more game then they'd be 4/10 and tober's prices would reverse.On the other hand, if B won one more game then it wouldbhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26025765/how-would-you-price-this-up?post_id=469581965#469581965I think when you have such a small sample size on someone, it's probably best to step away from the stats. If B happened to lose 1 more game then they'd be 4/10 and tober's prices would reverse.On the other hand, if B won one more game then it wouldbSun, 10 Oct 2010 09:17:17 -0500ror when the margin is 0.01 to 0.05 there aint no skill ....only a guess .https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26025765/how-would-you-price-this-up?post_id=469568961#469568961ror when the margin is 0.01 to 0.05 there aint no skill ....only a guess .Sun, 10 Oct 2010 07:05:09 -0500But zipper that is a very naive estimator.If as Lori says we assign each a "skill rating", p1 and p2, then we can calculate Prob(p2>p1). If that's significantly less than 0.5 then it's bad value to price this as evens.I can't work out right now how thttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26025765/how-would-you-price-this-up?post_id=469566989#469566989But zipper that is a very naive estimator.If as Lori says we assign each a "skill rating", p1 and p2, then we can calculate Prob(p2>p1). If that's significantly less than 0.5 then it's bad value to price this as evens.I can't work out right now how tSun, 10 Oct 2010 06:34:13 -0500Get me a Drink i would price up evens both of em , evens take your pick ..why its a bit like tossing a coin it dont matter if heads (A) has won 44 out of a 100 and tails (B) has won 5 out of ten .....its still a true even money chance next thttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26025765/how-would-you-price-this-up?post_id=469565741#469565741Get me a Drink i would price up evens both of em , evens take your pick ..why its a bit like tossing a coin it dont matter if heads (A) has won 44 out of a 100 and tails (B) has won 5 out of ten .....its still a true even money chance next tSun, 10 Oct 2010 06:17:28 -0500I'm pretty sure that this is solvable using the probabilities of each event happening. Not sure that I have the maths to do that, certainly not at this time of morning!However, the chances (using binomial) of the "true" chance of winning (assuming fohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26025765/how-would-you-price-this-up?post_id=469554497#469554497I'm pretty sure that this is solvable using the probabilities of each event happening. Not sure that I have the maths to do that, certainly not at this time of morning!However, the chances (using binomial) of the "true" chance of winning (assuming foSun, 10 Oct 2010 02:38:57 -0500It depends on the situation and the game, I'd price B at 2.1 or maybe evens, not because I don't think 5/10 is a large enough sample (as Tober says this doesn't really affect the price), but because a lower number of games may indicate being newer tohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26025765/how-would-you-price-this-up?post_id=469539165#469539165It depends on the situation and the game, I'd price B at 2.1 or maybe evens, not because I don't think 5/10 is a large enough sample (as Tober says this doesn't really affect the price), but because a lower number of games may indicate being newer toSat, 09 Oct 2010 21:51:57 -0500A- 2.27B- 1.78As it's the only info we have the reliabilty of B's stats cannot be quantified and so can't be considered as a factor in the pricing.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26025765/how-would-you-price-this-up?post_id=469533265#469533265A- 2.27B- 1.78As it's the only info we have the reliabilty of B's stats cannot be quantified and so can't be considered as a factor in the pricing.Sat, 09 Oct 2010 20:40:48 -0500In a ficticious competition, A v B, your research shows that 'A' has won 44 out of 100 and 'B' has won 5 out of 10 against other competitors. They are facing each other for the 1st time.On the face of it 'B' has a better strike rate (50% v 44%)but ithttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26025765/how-would-you-price-this-up?post_id=469520105#469520105In a ficticious competition, A v B, your research shows that 'A' has won 44 out of 100 and 'B' has won 5 out of 10 against other competitors. They are facing each other for the 1st time.On the face of it 'B' has a better strike rate (50% v 44%)but itSat, 09 Oct 2010 18:13:08 -0500