New Posts For Thread: trading questionhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25740517/trading-questionif i start with a bank of say £100. and i bet £100 on a 1.10, then go on to lay at 1.09 that wud b a profit of £1 if the selection goes on to win.my question is what stage do people get out if the bet if price goes the opposite way, ie do they getGood night Investor mate. I'll check if you've posted tomorrow night.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25740517/trading-question?post_id=464441477#464441477Good night Investor mate. I'll check if you've posted tomorrow night.Wed, 01 Sep 2010 21:56:50 -0500In a football match, if we assume that prices are always available and always represent the 'true' price when they appear, the probability of being able to trade out at 4.5 after laying a team at 3.5, is around 91.8%.Proof:Where pr(x) = probability ohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25740517/trading-question?post_id=464440145#464440145In a football match, if we assume that prices are always available and always represent the 'true' price when they appear, the probability of being able to trade out at 4.5 after laying a team at 3.5, is around 91.8%.Proof:Where pr(x) = probability oWed, 01 Sep 2010 21:45:50 -0500Or when you get a bet matched at good value, you're quite often close to the finishing line because you have a disproportionately high chance of trading out, but that's a bit like backing a good value 1.09 shot.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25740517/trading-question?post_id=464440061#464440061Or when you get a bet matched at good value, you're quite often close to the finishing line because you have a disproportionately high chance of trading out, but that's a bit like backing a good value 1.09 shot.Wed, 01 Sep 2010 21:45:21 -0500Yes. WHEN they're matched. That's like saying a 1.09 shot is in your favour once it's won.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25740517/trading-question?post_id=464439849#464439849Yes. WHEN they're matched. That's like saying a 1.09 shot is in your favour once it's won.Wed, 01 Sep 2010 21:43:27 -0500Yeah post it.I agree with your conclusion. It's the underlying assumption that's different. I assume that when my bets are matched, they are more likely to be in my favour than not. Working from that assumption, you'll probably see there is a big difhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25740517/trading-question?post_id=464439449#464439449Yeah post it.I agree with your conclusion. It's the underlying assumption that's different. I assume that when my bets are matched, they are more likely to be in my favour than not. Working from that assumption, you'll probably see there is a big difWed, 01 Sep 2010 21:40:18 -0500I've just written a mathematical proof that if we assume that prices are always available and always represent the 'true' price when they appear, the probability of being able to trade out at 4.5 after laying a team at 3.5, is around 91.8%, which ishttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25740517/trading-question?post_id=464438845#464438845I've just written a mathematical proof that if we assume that prices are always available and always represent the 'true' price when they appear, the probability of being able to trade out at 4.5 after laying a team at 3.5, is around 91.8%, which isWed, 01 Sep 2010 21:33:48 -0500OK then.Lay 3.50 for £250 liability to win £100.Back 4.50 with £77.78. You win £22.22.Not a lot different to backing a 1.08888 shot with £250 to win £22.22.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25740517/trading-question?post_id=464437233#464437233OK then.Lay 3.50 for £250 liability to win £100.Back 4.50 with £77.78. You win £22.22.Not a lot different to backing a 1.08888 shot with £250 to win £22.22.Wed, 01 Sep 2010 21:17:55 -0500I really don't understand your idea of it being the same as backing 1.09 shots?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25740517/trading-question?post_id=464436217#464436217I really don't understand your idea of it being the same as backing 1.09 shots?Wed, 01 Sep 2010 21:09:19 -0500OK, but the point is that that scenario doesn't represent a victory for trading. It's a victory for value seeking.I'm not getting this profit-stabilising concept. I think you just like backing things that have a high probability of winning. There's nhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25740517/trading-question?post_id=464435069#464435069OK, but the point is that that scenario doesn't represent a victory for trading. It's a victory for value seeking.I'm not getting this profit-stabilising concept. I think you just like backing things that have a high probability of winning. There's nWed, 01 Sep 2010 20:59:21 -0500Rowan86 Joined: 13 Jan 05Replies: 1189 02 Sep 10 02:04 [...]You're right. Given that you know it should be 4.0, the probability of your trade landing is disproportionately high, but that owes itself to the fact that you took value at 4.5 as much ashttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25740517/trading-question?post_id=464433797#464433797Rowan86 Joined: 13 Jan 05Replies: 1189 02 Sep 10 02:04 [...]You're right. Given that you know it should be 4.0, the probability of your trade landing is disproportionately high, but that owes itself to the fact that you took value at 4.5 as much asWed, 01 Sep 2010 20:48:41 -0500