New Posts For Thread: Risk of Ruinhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25682725/risk-of-ruinHow do the serious people on here approach this?I believe that I currently have an edge of about 3% (after commission). I place one or more lay bets on many markets during the day (using a bot), with a maximum liability of up to 4% of my bank (per mZipper - apology accepted.Compared to you I am playing for peanuts. Unlike yourself, because I can't pick winners or losers I've taken the "value" approach, which seems to be working for me at the moment.I've seen some of your other posts so I knowhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25682725/risk-of-ruin?post_id=463105945#463105945Zipper - apology accepted.Compared to you I am playing for peanuts. Unlike yourself, because I can't pick winners or losers I've taken the "value" approach, which seems to be working for me at the moment.I've seen some of your other posts so I knowMon, 23 Aug 2010 07:24:22 -0500Waynebrayn sorry for being rude yesterday . this may help .your average odds are way to high 10/1 so you say at them odds you have to have a very large bank or your playing for peanuts .. I lay horses only and sometimhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25682725/risk-of-ruin?post_id=463102345#463102345Waynebrayn sorry for being rude yesterday . this may help .your average odds are way to high 10/1 so you say at them odds you have to have a very large bank or your playing for peanuts .. I lay horses only and sometimMon, 23 Aug 2010 06:30:03 -0500Marky - useful stuff on that site, thanksAl Dente - I may have been unintentionally misleading people (including myself) about the 4% liability. I use the payout calculation so the liability depends on the odds I offer e.g. (assume £1000 bank, wayhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25682725/risk-of-ruin?post_id=463101789#463101789Marky - useful stuff on that site, thanksAl Dente - I may have been unintentionally misleading people (including myself) about the 4% liability. I use the payout calculation so the liability depends on the odds I offer e.g. (assume £1000 bank, wayMon, 23 Aug 2010 06:20:54 -0500If you lose 10% you will need to win 11% to replace the loss; a 20% loss requires a profit of 25% to replace, a 40% loss requires a profit of 67% to replace lost funds, etc.; your losses grow arithmetically and the profits required to replace the loshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25682725/risk-of-ruin?post_id=463098497#463098497If you lose 10% you will need to win 11% to replace the loss; a 20% loss requires a profit of 25% to replace, a 40% loss requires a profit of 67% to replace lost funds, etc.; your losses grow arithmetically and the profits required to replace the losMon, 23 Aug 2010 05:32:27 -0500If I remember correctly I think the betting guide on this site covers this topic in detail and is very useful:http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25682725/risk-of-ruin?post_id=463096761#463096761If I remember correctly I think the betting guide on this site covers this topic in detail and is very useful:http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/Mon, 23 Aug 2010 05:06:15 -0500Hi TameAt the start I did lay to level stakes and did make a profit. Back in Feb I saw something on here that made me change to fixed liability (payout). This has seemed to haqve made a very big difference in increasing profits, but is also more vohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25682725/risk-of-ruin?post_id=463094193#463094193Hi TameAt the start I did lay to level stakes and did make a profit. Back in Feb I saw something on here that made me change to fixed liability (payout). This has seemed to haqve made a very big difference in increasing profits, but is also more voMon, 23 Aug 2010 04:19:09 -0500Does your strategy make a profit at fixed level stakes i.e take the same size bet on each lay.(instead of fixed liability)If so,take a bet of 0.5% of your bank on each bet. i.e £1,000 bank take a £5 wager.On a 20/1 this would mean your liability wohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25682725/risk-of-ruin?post_id=463093001#463093001Does your strategy make a profit at fixed level stakes i.e take the same size bet on each lay.(instead of fixed liability)If so,take a bet of 0.5% of your bank on each bet. i.e £1,000 bank take a £5 wager.On a 20/1 this would mean your liability woMon, 23 Aug 2010 03:46:18 -0500Thanks for the reply Wedged.I've probably been lucky so far, overall I've only had two losing months (and the first of those was negligible), but the strategy has always (so far) turned around.I understand that the longer I go the more likely I am tohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25682725/risk-of-ruin?post_id=463038145#463038145Thanks for the reply Wedged.I've probably been lucky so far, overall I've only had two losing months (and the first of those was negligible), but the strategy has always (so far) turned around.I understand that the longer I go the more likely I am toSun, 22 Aug 2010 15:42:15 -0500Hello wayne, it does look like you are using a simplified formula that isn't taking into account all the factors that you are able to supply. The above formula is very rigid and only allows the most basic variables to be processed.However, your riskhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25682725/risk-of-ruin?post_id=463029213#463029213Hello wayne, it does look like you are using a simplified formula that isn't taking into account all the factors that you are able to supply. The above formula is very rigid and only allows the most basic variables to be processed.However, your riskSun, 22 Aug 2010 14:37:59 -0500zipper what is your problem? The chap is asking a question and you think its ok to respond with utter rubbish? grow uphttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25682725/risk-of-ruin?post_id=463016285#463016285zipper what is your problem? The chap is asking a question and you think its ok to respond with utter rubbish? grow upSun, 22 Aug 2010 12:58:33 -0500