New Posts For Thread: How to work out a price by the spread price ?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25341925/how-to-work-out-a-price-by-the-spread-priceUruguay v Germany over 2.5 goals 1.78 on the spreads it was 3 - 3.2 meaning the spreads predicted 3.1 goals. Just wondering how you can work out a thru price from it.If you DO mean goal expectation then your example of 0.45 (0-4-0.6)puzzles me. Goal expectation for most domestic football matches is usually between 2.2 and 3.2, so are you referring to 'in running'spreads ?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25341925/how-to-work-out-a-price-by-the-spread-price?post_id=457329533#457329533If you DO mean goal expectation then your example of 0.45 (0-4-0.6)puzzles me. Goal expectation for most domestic football matches is usually between 2.2 and 3.2, so are you referring to 'in running'spreads ?Thu, 15 Jul 2010 04:04:48 -0500No, I do mean goal expectation (in this case for the (far) weaker of the two teams). Using it in combination with other spreads to price up total goals, over/unders, correct score markets etc. isn't viable.Using superiority may give you somethinhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25341925/how-to-work-out-a-price-by-the-spread-price?post_id=457309793#457309793No, I do mean goal expectation (in this case for the (far) weaker of the two teams). Using it in combination with other spreads to price up total goals, over/unders, correct score markets etc. isn't viable.Using superiority may give you somethinWed, 14 Jul 2010 22:07:30 -0500Using spread prices for comparison is now outdated. Asian prices heavily affect the prices and given certain firms' preoccupation with 'getting short' and closing sellers/winners, the markets are not traded on 'the bid' in anhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25341925/how-to-work-out-a-price-by-the-spread-price?post_id=457281893#457281893Using spread prices for comparison is now outdated. Asian prices heavily affect the prices and given certain firms' preoccupation with 'getting short' and closing sellers/winners, the markets are not traded on 'the bid' in anWed, 14 Jul 2010 18:01:12 -0500Correction ! 'they put their money where their mouth is'.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25341925/how-to-work-out-a-price-by-the-spread-price?post_id=457261761#457261761Correction ! 'they put their money where their mouth is'.Wed, 14 Jul 2010 15:40:40 -0500Investor, I presume when you say 'goal expectation' you mean 'superiority'.If so, IMO the the difference between 0.45 and 0.5 is the same as the differencebetween 11/10 and 23/20 in fractional betting, which is not really that muchttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25341925/how-to-work-out-a-price-by-the-spread-price?post_id=457259809#457259809Investor, I presume when you say 'goal expectation' you mean 'superiority'.If so, IMO the the difference between 0.45 and 0.5 is the same as the differencebetween 11/10 and 23/20 in fractional betting, which is not really that mucWed, 14 Jul 2010 15:28:04 -0500Let's say an accurate goal expectation is 0.45. If the spread is 0.4-0.6 and you take 0.5, that's 10% out. As I work out odds across markets by making sure they are in line with eachoter, a mistake like this would be compounded if I was tohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25341925/how-to-work-out-a-price-by-the-spread-price?post_id=457222821#457222821Let's say an accurate goal expectation is 0.45. If the spread is 0.4-0.6 and you take 0.5, that's 10% out. As I work out odds across markets by making sure they are in line with eachoter, a mistake like this would be compounded if I was toWed, 14 Jul 2010 11:05:03 -0500Investor, not sure what you are meaning. A difference of 0.4-0.6 between the protagonists would be in line with an 11/10 chance IMO. A small deviation from middle would not make much change, if at all, unless I'm missing something.I make lots ofhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25341925/how-to-work-out-a-price-by-the-spread-price?post_id=456761105#456761105Investor, not sure what you are meaning. A difference of 0.4-0.6 between the protagonists would be in line with an 11/10 chance IMO. A small deviation from middle would not make much change, if at all, unless I'm missing something.I make lots ofSun, 11 Jul 2010 10:22:54 -0500Rocketfingers Joined: 20 May 10Replies: 222 10 Jul 10 22:02 Uruguay v Germany over 2.5 goals 1.78 on the spreads it was 3 - 3.2 meaning the spreads predicted 3.1 goals. Just wondering how you can work out a thru price from it.Just taking 3.1 is a bihttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25341925/how-to-work-out-a-price-by-the-spread-price?post_id=456748953#456748953Rocketfingers Joined: 20 May 10Replies: 222 10 Jul 10 22:02 Uruguay v Germany over 2.5 goals 1.78 on the spreads it was 3 - 3.2 meaning the spreads predicted 3.1 goals. Just wondering how you can work out a thru price from it.Just taking 3.1 is a biSun, 11 Jul 2010 08:27:44 -0500P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) / x! always seems to work for me as long as I have properly calculated the value of μ. Failure to do so can lead to very nasty losses as can wrongly disallowed goals, and incorrect offside decisions. Amendments following Borhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25341925/how-to-work-out-a-price-by-the-spread-price?post_id=456741977#456741977P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) / x! always seems to work for me as long as I have properly calculated the value of μ. Failure to do so can lead to very nasty losses as can wrongly disallowed goals, and incorrect offside decisions. Amendments following BorSun, 11 Jul 2010 07:07:20 -0500poisson distribution should work for total goals.It doesn't work for correct scores.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25341925/how-to-work-out-a-price-by-the-spread-price?post_id=456741057#456741057poisson distribution should work for total goals.It doesn't work for correct scores.Sun, 11 Jul 2010 06:55:09 -0500