New Posts For Thread: Probability Betting - by Betting Bobhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/24596745/probability-betting---by-betting-bobI've created a short blog that I hope will create some interest. If you are betting along the same lines and have some ideas I will add them.I hope you read with interest.(Just for the record I'm not selling anything here - honest).The blogI based the calculation on 3 out of 12 were over. This equals 75% being under - so odds are 1.4It is mistake to presume that because 9 from 12 were 'unders' that it would continue that way. The reason why you got 9 from 12 is because it ishttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/24596745/probability-betting---by-betting-bob?post_id=448476997#448476997I based the calculation on 3 out of 12 were over. This equals 75% being under - so odds are 1.4It is mistake to presume that because 9 from 12 were 'unders' that it would continue that way. The reason why you got 9 from 12 is because it isFri, 21 May 2010 07:39:51 -0500I have very good reason to believe a lot more odds are out of whack then even I ever thought possible.I developed a system for MLB baseball, for the sole reasons they play a huge amount of season games (around 160 per team in roughly half a year), sohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/24596745/probability-betting---by-betting-bob?post_id=448472849#448472849I have very good reason to believe a lot more odds are out of whack then even I ever thought possible.I developed a system for MLB baseball, for the sole reasons they play a huge amount of season games (around 160 per team in roughly half a year), soFri, 21 May 2010 06:49:31 -0500Pollox and DaveEdwards,The way I operate here is that I start with the most liquid market (match odds), assume it is efficiently priced, and then make inferences from that. In some cases I work backwards and test the efficiency of match odds pricinghttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/24596745/probability-betting---by-betting-bob?post_id=448432865#448432865Pollox and DaveEdwards,The way I operate here is that I start with the most liquid market (match odds), assume it is efficiently priced, and then make inferences from that. In some cases I work backwards and test the efficiency of match odds pricingThu, 20 May 2010 20:43:16 -0500findin + play *** lol getin latehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/24596745/probability-betting---by-betting-bob?post_id=448419801#448419801findin + play *** lol getin lateThu, 20 May 2010 18:53:50 -0500inter indin it hard to player their football on this bobbly [pitchhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/24596745/probability-betting---by-betting-bob?post_id=448419709#448419709inter indin it hard to player their football on this bobbly [pitchThu, 20 May 2010 18:53:20 -0500The thing with wisdom of the crowd is... just because 50% of all the 2.00 shots around here do win (if they actually do, but even if), that doesn't necessarily mean that these odds were an accurate assessment.Sounds counter-intuitive, but wrappihttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/24596745/probability-betting---by-betting-bob?post_id=448418433#448418433The thing with wisdom of the crowd is... just because 50% of all the 2.00 shots around here do win (if they actually do, but even if), that doesn't necessarily mean that these odds were an accurate assessment.Sounds counter-intuitive, but wrappiThu, 20 May 2010 18:43:20 -0500Thanks Compound Magic.I based the calculation on 3 out of 12 were over. This equals 75% being under - so odds are 1.4Which ever way you calculate the figures I guess it always comes back to the 'Wisdom of the Crowd' figure. Some people sayhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/24596745/probability-betting---by-betting-bob?post_id=446658537#446658537Thanks Compound Magic.I based the calculation on 3 out of 12 were over. This equals 75% being under - so odds are 1.4Which ever way you calculate the figures I guess it always comes back to the 'Wisdom of the Crowd' figure. Some people sayWed, 19 May 2010 03:40:50 -0500Also the average number of goals scored in the play-offs is significantly less than in the course of a normal season. Something like 2.3 versus 2.6.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/24596745/probability-betting---by-betting-bob?post_id=446483829#446483829Also the average number of goals scored in the play-offs is significantly less than in the course of a normal season. Something like 2.3 versus 2.6.Wed, 19 May 2010 03:17:10 -0500Are you talking odds or dividend if you think the dividendshould be 1.4 which is 2/5 on, in odds that suggests thatyou believe that there is a 72% chance that 2.5 goals is unattainable. That seems a very high % to me.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/24596745/probability-betting---by-betting-bob?post_id=446475781#446475781Are you talking odds or dividend if you think the dividendshould be 1.4 which is 2/5 on, in odds that suggests thatyou believe that there is a 72% chance that 2.5 goals is unattainable. That seems a very high % to me.Wed, 19 May 2010 03:16:17 -0500I've had some interesting replies so far and it seems that you have to workout whether the betfair odds are greater or less than the 'unblinkered probability' - Take tonights Rotherham v Aldershot game - The odds of under 2.5 goals arehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/24596745/probability-betting---by-betting-bob?post_id=446064561#446064561I've had some interesting replies so far and it seems that you have to workout whether the betfair odds are greater or less than the 'unblinkered probability' - Take tonights Rotherham v Aldershot game - The odds of under 2.5 goals areWed, 19 May 2010 02:19:49 -0500