https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23870414/kelly-questionSo I have an edge of around 5 percent on the football pre-match markets as a whole using kelly staking but am unsure of the actual staking to best utilise this...There are 120 games approx per weekend and so say my bank is 200 points would I kelly sthttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23870414/kelly-question?post_id=430344838#430344838Any concurrent matches you need to combine to work out correct Kelly stakes. For example if there were only 2 concurrent matches instead of 2 events both with 3 outcomes, you have 1 event with 9 outcomes where the probability of each is the product oFri, 30 Apr 2010 04:00:15 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23870414/kelly-question?post_id=430344834#430344834Start with a bank that is significantly lower than the total betting funds available to you, then use Kelly (or a watered down version if you want to be more careful) and if you have an edge you will make money.Fri, 30 Apr 2010 00:21:13 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23870414/kelly-question?post_id=430344830#430344830The Investor 30 Apr 01:02To me the most likely conclusion to draw from the above is that you do have an edge, but you think it is larger than it actually is.I don't think level stakes can beat Kelly (or at least a system derived from Kelly) if youThu, 29 Apr 2010 19:36:32 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23870414/kelly-question?post_id=430344826#430344826suppose if Kelly is telling you to bet 52% of you bank they must be skinny odds. If the edge is over the 120 almost simulatanous markets can you not do Kelly/120, probably half Kelly /120 would be safer to startThu, 29 Apr 2010 19:23:08 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23870414/kelly-question?post_id=430344822#430344822How about spliting your bets into three categories say odds on, 2 to 5, greater than 5 (or any split that seems sensible to you) and use kelly on the average odds for each category.Think it all depends on what odds range your looking at / strike rateThu, 29 Apr 2010 19:10:45 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23870414/kelly-question?post_id=430344818#430344818Knight Rider 30 Apr 00:22 Good luck. Personally have found Kelly staking to be very dangerous. End up having a couple of massive bets each weekend when your price is way out of line with the market, and your success hinges on those results.HaThu, 29 Apr 2010 19:02:01 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23870414/kelly-question?post_id=430344814#430344814Thanks. Yes I agree it can be very dangerous particularly when using your whole bank to kelly stake your bets. This is why I am thinking of kelly staking within point limits... thus maximising the value in the odds but limiting the risk as it's spreaThu, 29 Apr 2010 18:28:37 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23870414/kelly-question?post_id=430344810#430344810Good luck. Personally have found Kelly staking to be very dangerous. End up having a couple of massive bets each weekend when your price is way out of line with the market, and your success hinges on those results.Have you trialled other staking plThu, 29 Apr 2010 18:22:45 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23870414/kelly-question?post_id=430344806#430344806Thanks both, that's what I am thinking Knight Rider... I have a computer program to work out the dds and kelly stakes but could do with something to place the actual bets tbhThu, 29 Apr 2010 18:11:39 -0500https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23870414/kelly-question?post_id=430344802#430344802You could always start with a smaller 'bank' than your actual available funds. If you genuinely have a 5% edge you should build it up in no time.Thu, 29 Apr 2010 18:10:17 -0500