New Posts For Thread: RATINGS ANALYSIS: "overlapping" filtershttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23869786/ratings-analysis-overlapping-filtersI'll simplify this for now. I am going over my baseball filters from last year and tuning them for this year.I have one that I developed that:Takes ratings of the last ten games to predict what the team "should do" over the next 10.The teams are commy advice is no1 can predict the future...forget trying to predict sport outcomes and concentrate on predicting the markets (general public)its a damn sight easierhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23869786/ratings-analysis-overlapping-filters?post_id=430334746#430334746my advice is no1 can predict the future...forget trying to predict sport outcomes and concentrate on predicting the markets (general public)its a damn sight easierSun, 18 Apr 2010 01:38:44 -0500Again I would be wary of how this is applied.I can imagine a senario where say Man Utd got off to a poor start and based on previous seasons you might get value on their upcomming matches until they start producing the "expected" performances.But Ihttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23869786/ratings-analysis-overlapping-filters?post_id=430334742#430334742Again I would be wary of how this is applied.I can imagine a senario where say Man Utd got off to a poor start and based on previous seasons you might get value on their upcomming matches until they start producing the "expected" performances.But ISat, 17 Apr 2010 12:10:43 -0500Taking a prediction for 8 out of 10 and then inferring something from that after the next result seems error prone.I agree. We all create and read ratings based on the race/event at hand. But spent last year reading papers by mathematicians, etc,https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23869786/ratings-analysis-overlapping-filters?post_id=430334738#430334738Taking a prediction for 8 out of 10 and then inferring something from that after the next result seems error prone.I agree. We all create and read ratings based on the race/event at hand. But spent last year reading papers by mathematicians, etc,Thu, 15 Apr 2010 18:33:55 -0500What you're after us an exponential moving average.Also your probabilities must be calculated for each possible combination of outcomes, from 0 out of 10 to 10 out of 10. They are all possible and the sum of them must be unity.So that after the 10 gahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23869786/ratings-analysis-overlapping-filters?post_id=430334734#430334734What you're after us an exponential moving average.Also your probabilities must be calculated for each possible combination of outcomes, from 0 out of 10 to 10 out of 10. They are all possible and the sum of them must be unity.So that after the 10 gaThu, 15 Apr 2010 17:03:11 -0500Thanks for the input. Your reasoning for "b" and giving weight to recent play makes sense.I also woke up wondering if a "moving average" approach would do the same thing (which is supported by what you wrote); in other words, take a reading over thttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23869786/ratings-analysis-overlapping-filters?post_id=430334730#430334730Thanks for the input. Your reasoning for "b" and giving weight to recent play makes sense.I also woke up wondering if a "moving average" approach would do the same thing (which is supported by what you wrote); in other words, take a reading over tWed, 14 Apr 2010 02:58:28 -0500I've read it again.I prefer your second option (b) because it puts less weight on the first rating which is now achieved over only 9 games rather than 10. Also the first rating now doesn't include the last game so its totally discounting last night'shttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23869786/ratings-analysis-overlapping-filters?post_id=430334726#430334726I've read it again.I prefer your second option (b) because it puts less weight on the first rating which is now achieved over only 9 games rather than 10. Also the first rating now doesn't include the last game so its totally discounting last night'sWed, 14 Apr 2010 02:24:45 -0500Agreed, Zola. Was simplifying things. The number generated is based on the rated performance of each match. Thus, if an away team beats a top-rated team, the individual match/result is rated such.But from there it is a matter of smoothing those rehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23869786/ratings-analysis-overlapping-filters?post_id=430334722#430334722Agreed, Zola. Was simplifying things. The number generated is based on the rated performance of each match. Thus, if an away team beats a top-rated team, the individual match/result is rated such.But from there it is a matter of smoothing those reTue, 13 Apr 2010 15:09:07 -0500*account!https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23869786/ratings-analysis-overlapping-filters?post_id=430334718#430334718*account!Tue, 13 Apr 2010 14:11:04 -0500You also have to take into ac*****who they played in the previous 10.For example if, say, Everton have played chelsea, man utd, arsenal, spurs, liverpool and man city, then the simple average calculated from those games will have little bearing on uphttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23869786/ratings-analysis-overlapping-filters?post_id=430334714#430334714You also have to take into ac*****who they played in the previous 10.For example if, say, Everton have played chelsea, man utd, arsenal, spurs, liverpool and man city, then the simple average calculated from those games will have little bearing on upTue, 13 Apr 2010 14:10:52 -0500No, you haven't mis-understood.A team that is rated at 80% loses three in row, yes, that one is now at 8/7.So if11 - loss12- loss13 - losson game 14, it would be 8/7.This, in turn, would be rounded by the filters that were taking readings on:2 to 113https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23869786/ratings-analysis-overlapping-filters?post_id=430334710#430334710No, you haven't mis-understood.A team that is rated at 80% loses three in row, yes, that one is now at 8/7.So if11 - loss12- loss13 - losson game 14, it would be 8/7.This, in turn, would be rounded by the filters that were taking readings on:2 to 113Tue, 13 Apr 2010 14:01:57 -0500