New Posts For Thread: Value question.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535854/value-questionIf the readily avaiable staitstical records on a particular market show very clearly and openly that a certain type of event occurs( say) 1/3 of the time and so should be priced at or close to 3.33, but you are quite regularly, but not always, offeThe only other ingredient affecting the price of the draw is goal expectancy, but the variation is very small. In matches for instance, where the protagonists ae equal in the betting to win, the draw price will be either 9/4 or 23/10 and occasionallyhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535854/value-question?post_id=420939222#420939222The only other ingredient affecting the price of the draw is goal expectancy, but the variation is very small. In matches for instance, where the protagonists ae equal in the betting to win, the draw price will be either 9/4 or 23/10 and occasionallySat, 03 Apr 2010 03:30:54 -0500Makes good sense. Tks.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535854/value-question?post_id=420939214#420939214Makes good sense. Tks.Fri, 02 Apr 2010 20:59:46 -0500Soccer example has the price of a draw influenced by other factors than just the ratings of the teams involved, so each match is more of an individual situation. A tennis match is clearer, if you win you go through to next round, if you lose, you'rehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535854/value-question?post_id=420939210#420939210Soccer example has the price of a draw influenced by other factors than just the ratings of the teams involved, so each match is more of an individual situation. A tennis match is clearer, if you win you go through to next round, if you lose, you'reFri, 02 Apr 2010 20:59:02 -0500So am I interpreting you correctly ?.Are you basically saying that in football sometimes teams deliberately play for a certain outcome ( say a draw), but in tennis no player would or could really play for a deliberate 3 set win as opposed to a 2 sethttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535854/value-question?post_id=420939206#420939206So am I interpreting you correctly ?.Are you basically saying that in football sometimes teams deliberately play for a certain outcome ( say a draw), but in tennis no player would or could really play for a deliberate 3 set win as opposed to a 2 setFri, 02 Apr 2010 20:40:31 -0500In soccer a team can draw and gain an advantage from it in the context of positions on the ladder etc. Therefore you can have an odds on favourite but the draw may be at say 3.60, you could also have a 2.20 favourite and the draw may still be 3.60.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535854/value-question?post_id=420939202#420939202In soccer a team can draw and gain an advantage from it in the context of positions on the ladder etc. Therefore you can have an odds on favourite but the draw may be at say 3.60, you could also have a 2.20 favourite and the draw may still be 3.60.Fri, 02 Apr 2010 20:31:56 -0500Could you explain that a bit more to me ?Sounds inteersting.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535854/value-question?post_id=420939194#420939194Could you explain that a bit more to me ?Sounds inteersting.Fri, 02 Apr 2010 20:01:18 -0500bear in mind alot of the 'market makers' are not value seekers/bettors, but more people will the advantage of being able to close positions without being matched at out of date prices. most will have no view.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535854/value-question?post_id=420939190#420939190bear in mind alot of the 'market makers' are not value seekers/bettors, but more people will the advantage of being able to close positions without being matched at out of date prices. most will have no view.Fri, 02 Apr 2010 19:58:53 -0500Or do you mean that those 2 markets are in fact both where statistical generalisations can be usefully applied ?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535854/value-question?post_id=420939186#420939186Or do you mean that those 2 markets are in fact both where statistical generalisations can be usefully applied ?Fri, 02 Apr 2010 19:58:24 -0500ShirazI'm confused.Are you saying t can be used in soccer but not tennis, or the other way round ?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535854/value-question?post_id=420939182#420939182ShirazI'm confused.Are you saying t can be used in soccer but not tennis, or the other way round ?Fri, 02 Apr 2010 19:55:44 -0500Of course a basic assumption I'm making is that the market makers are not just a lazy group of sods, who haven't done their research properly and are just winging it.In that' s not the case it would be real value and a genuine edge.Bleedin difficulthttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535854/value-question?post_id=420939178#420939178Of course a basic assumption I'm making is that the market makers are not just a lazy group of sods, who haven't done their research properly and are just winging it.In that' s not the case it would be real value and a genuine edge.Bleedin difficultFri, 02 Apr 2010 19:53:51 -0500