New Posts For Thread: Help with stakinghttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535466/help-with-stakingI have a method that returns 15% net on a sample of 100 actual betsBackfitting the selection criteria to 1000 historical results returns 14% so I am fairly confident that in current market conditions, I have a winning strategy.The odds of winning betAs your bank accumulates with a 15% edge increase the 'level' stake. For instance, from a 50 point bank, betting 1 point per bet, when the bank reaches 60 points, increase the 1 point to 1.5 points, then at 72 points up to 2.25 points etc, etc.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535466/help-with-staking?post_id=420928022#420928022As your bank accumulates with a 15% edge increase the 'level' stake. For instance, from a 50 point bank, betting 1 point per bet, when the bank reaches 60 points, increase the 1 point to 1.5 points, then at 72 points up to 2.25 points etc, etc.Sat, 27 Mar 2010 07:06:03 -0500Just increase the level stake.That's not level then is it?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535466/help-with-staking?post_id=420928014#420928014Just increase the level stake.That's not level then is it?Sat, 27 Mar 2010 04:25:54 -0500It's impossible beetle, given him that link many times.Ken, there's a difference between winning more, and maximizing. This game is about maximizing while you can. Level stakes is a decent approximation of a system like this anyway, but if you don'thttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535466/help-with-staking?post_id=420928010#420928010It's impossible beetle, given him that link many times.Ken, there's a difference between winning more, and maximizing. This game is about maximizing while you can. Level stakes is a decent approximation of a system like this anyway, but if you don'tSat, 27 Mar 2010 04:25:21 -0500http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterionhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535466/help-with-staking?post_id=420928006#420928006http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterionSat, 27 Mar 2010 03:01:19 -0500Easy to maximise profits at levels. Just increase the level stake.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535466/help-with-staking?post_id=420928002#420928002Easy to maximise profits at levels. Just increase the level stake.Sat, 27 Mar 2010 02:40:28 -0500to maximize profit ken.The good news with Kelly is it isn't sequence dependent and it increases your winnings.Wait, we've done this one before.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535466/help-with-staking?post_id=420927994#420927994to maximize profit ken.The good news with Kelly is it isn't sequence dependent and it increases your winnings.Wait, we've done this one before.Fri, 26 Mar 2010 19:42:41 -0500Why do you need a staking plan when you have a good level stake profit ?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535466/help-with-staking?post_id=420927990#420927990Why do you need a staking plan when you have a good level stake profit ?Fri, 26 Mar 2010 18:30:02 -0500cheers for commentshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535466/help-with-staking?post_id=420927986#420927986cheers for commentsFri, 26 Mar 2010 14:15:51 -0500Lori,Yes, I understand what you say. I have run various worst case scenarios on the parameters and a few percentage points can wipe out all profit. Unfortunately I can't fully test the back data because I dont have actulal odds for all the matcheshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535466/help-with-staking?post_id=420927982#420927982Lori,Yes, I understand what you say. I have run various worst case scenarios on the parameters and a few percentage points can wipe out all profit. Unfortunately I can't fully test the back data because I dont have actulal odds for all the matchesFri, 26 Mar 2010 14:10:27 -0500I also think I may have misunderstood your post.I took it to mean you thought you were being very conservative using half Kelly. Now I read the context again, if it means being very conservative with edge projections and also using half Kelly, then jhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23535466/help-with-staking?post_id=420927970#420927970I also think I may have misunderstood your post.I took it to mean you thought you were being very conservative using half Kelly. Now I read the context again, if it means being very conservative with edge projections and also using half Kelly, then jFri, 26 Mar 2010 14:03:10 -0500