New Posts For Thread: What is the statistical advantage in greening up?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532178/what-is-the-statistical-advantage-in-greening-upI am always trying to figure out if I should green up a trade or if it is better to leave it. I need a math expert who can tell me if , long-term, I am actually losing my 'edge' (assuming I have one) by doing so.no one ever went broke greening uphttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532178/what-is-the-statistical-advantage-in-greening-up?post_id=420832506#420832506no one ever went broke greening upFri, 19 Mar 2010 04:59:17 -0500I guess that's the point at which it starts to tend towards an art form Contrarian, because with efficient markets, you could get a better green up later, sometimes a very short time later as the market heads towards it's true value.Of course in realhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532178/what-is-the-statistical-advantage-in-greening-up?post_id=420832502#420832502I guess that's the point at which it starts to tend towards an art form Contrarian, because with efficient markets, you could get a better green up later, sometimes a very short time later as the market heads towards it's true value.Of course in realFri, 19 Mar 2010 04:58:58 -0500Which be what we band 'o pirates have known all along...it be th' commission which kills th' betters.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532178/what-is-the-statistical-advantage-in-greening-up?post_id=420832498#420832498Which be what we band 'o pirates have known all along...it be th' commission which kills th' betters.Fri, 19 Mar 2010 04:55:10 -0500It is very easy to demonstrate mathematically that you should often green up at less than value, and you should always green up at value. Suppose we have a 2-horse race. The true probabililty of A winning is 50%, and you have managed to back him forhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532178/what-is-the-statistical-advantage-in-greening-up?post_id=420832462#420832462It is very easy to demonstrate mathematically that you should often green up at less than value, and you should always green up at value. Suppose we have a 2-horse race. The true probabililty of A winning is 50%, and you have managed to back him forFri, 19 Mar 2010 04:33:53 -0500If it's not something you've thought about clearly and accurately, there is no advantage in greening up unless the second bet offers correct value or better.However, and it's easier said than done, if you can incorporate a strategy that predicts markhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532178/what-is-the-statistical-advantage-in-greening-up?post_id=420832450#420832450If it's not something you've thought about clearly and accurately, there is no advantage in greening up unless the second bet offers correct value or better.However, and it's easier said than done, if you can incorporate a strategy that predicts markFri, 19 Mar 2010 04:29:49 -0500Anyway..to answer ye inquiry...ALWAYS GREEN UP or RED UP! Ask yourself 'tis inquiry: Do I be needin' to WIN...or do I be needin' to be PROFITABLE?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532178/what-is-the-statistical-advantage-in-greening-up?post_id=420832446#420832446Anyway..to answer ye inquiry...ALWAYS GREEN UP or RED UP! Ask yourself 'tis inquiry: Do I be needin' to WIN...or do I be needin' to be PROFITABLE?Fri, 19 Mar 2010 04:18:25 -0500Anyway..to answer ye inquiry...ALWAYS GREEN UP or RED UP!https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532178/what-is-the-statistical-advantage-in-greening-up?post_id=420832442#420832442Anyway..to answer ye inquiry...ALWAYS GREEN UP or RED UP!Fri, 19 Mar 2010 04:15:26 -0500That's strange...someone has taken me moniker...gift it back ye scoundrel!https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532178/what-is-the-statistical-advantage-in-greening-up?post_id=420832438#420832438That's strange...someone has taken me moniker...gift it back ye scoundrel!Fri, 19 Mar 2010 04:12:47 -0500was this before you took to the high seas?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532178/what-is-the-statistical-advantage-in-greening-up?post_id=420832434#420832434was this before you took to the high seas?Fri, 19 Mar 2010 04:10:38 -0500Mine is none all winners matched about 1 in 5 losers get matched. I am just giving money away on winners.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532178/what-is-the-statistical-advantage-in-greening-up?post_id=420832010#420832010Mine is none all winners matched about 1 in 5 losers get matched. I am just giving money away on winners.Mon, 23 Mar 2009 01:43:17 -0500