New Posts For Thread: My Assumptionshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532058/my-assumptionsAssumptions (discard traders and arbitrage punters as some of these assumptions would not apply)1. That at least 80% have a negative ROI2. That of those that have a positive ROI the majority only use Betfairs my account to track their betting3. ThaI agree w/ Knight Rider--with Kelly you just tend to have too much on when there's something you missed. But I wdn't bet w/out a tissue or stake w/out Kelly.CM, I am also laying/betting on multiple horses per race but not to a fixed takeout. I will ahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532058/my-assumptions?post_id=420830322#420830322I agree w/ Knight Rider--with Kelly you just tend to have too much on when there's something you missed. But I wdn't bet w/out a tissue or stake w/out Kelly.CM, I am also laying/betting on multiple horses per race but not to a fixed takeout. I will aWed, 17 Mar 2010 04:47:21 -0500Kelly can be extremely dangerous. You have to be VERY confident that your price is "correct", otherwise you will just end up having unusually large bets when the price is way off which is often because of some factor your system hasn't accounted forhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532058/my-assumptions?post_id=420830294#420830294Kelly can be extremely dangerous. You have to be VERY confident that your price is "correct", otherwise you will just end up having unusually large bets when the price is way off which is often because of some factor your system hasn't accounted forWed, 17 Mar 2010 00:02:23 -0500askari1Kelly is excellent on single selection per event, but as I back multiple horses in the same event providing they are all value, I use % of profits staking according to the current roi over the last 100 selections.Thanks for your info cheers.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532058/my-assumptions?post_id=420830290#420830290askari1Kelly is excellent on single selection per event, but as I back multiple horses in the same event providing they are all value, I use % of profits staking according to the current roi over the last 100 selections.Thanks for your info cheers.Tue, 16 Mar 2010 22:18:00 -0500*both globally and on specific horses, I meanthttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532058/my-assumptions?post_id=420830286#420830286*both globally and on specific horses, I meantTue, 16 Mar 2010 21:24:46 -0500CM, I am using a scaled-down version of Kelly to determine how much to lay. I keep lopsided books rather than green up, but red up both globally and on whole markets when I seem to got specific horses wrong.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532058/my-assumptions?post_id=420830282#420830282CM, I am using a scaled-down version of Kelly to determine how much to lay. I keep lopsided books rather than green up, but red up both globally and on whole markets when I seem to got specific horses wrong.Tue, 16 Mar 2010 21:23:10 -0500I think the people that lose (the vast majority) do so primarily because they lose hold of their emotions when things go against them.Most who bet know enough to lose commission and no more than another 3-5%. People's losses are more than this b/c ofhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532058/my-assumptions?post_id=420830278#420830278I think the people that lose (the vast majority) do so primarily because they lose hold of their emotions when things go against them.Most who bet know enough to lose commission and no more than another 3-5%. People's losses are more than this b/c ofTue, 16 Mar 2010 21:21:26 -0500Assumptions (discard traders and arbitrage punters as some of these assumptions would not apply)1. That at least 80% have a negative ROI2. That of those that have a positive ROI the majority only use Betfairs my account to track their betting3. Thahttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532058/my-assumptions?post_id=420830274#420830274Assumptions (discard traders and arbitrage punters as some of these assumptions would not apply)1. That at least 80% have a negative ROI2. That of those that have a positive ROI the majority only use Betfairs my account to track their betting3. ThaTue, 16 Mar 2010 20:43:00 -0500