New Posts For Thread: Virtual Horse forecast price 70.0https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23531618/virtual-horse-forecast-price-70012:57 at The Moors, the 8 horse was forecast at 70.0As an example, suppose 100 simulations were run of a race happening later today. Of those 100 simulations, the horse named Apple Tree won 20 times and the horse named Bay Wold won 8 times. Apple TreThe Calculator 08 Mar 13:04 Apparently, in one of the simulations, this horse came second, but the horse in front was found to have virtually taken steroids. The virtual trainer contested these allegations in front of the VBHA, and the case ishttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23531618/virtual-horse-forecast-price-700?post_id=420809638#420809638The Calculator 08 Mar 13:04 Apparently, in one of the simulations, this horse came second, but the horse in front was found to have virtually taken steroids. The virtual trainer contested these allegations in front of the VBHA, and the case isTue, 09 Mar 2010 22:20:13 -0600A good point about 'conditioning', Lori. There are certainly factors built into the races that aren't apparent from the variables we are given. Sometimes I'll see a 1.85 shot and try and figure out why it is so short but there is rarely sufficient exhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23531618/virtual-horse-forecast-price-700?post_id=420809626#420809626A good point about 'conditioning', Lori. There are certainly factors built into the races that aren't apparent from the variables we are given. Sometimes I'll see a 1.85 shot and try and figure out why it is so short but there is rarely sufficient exTue, 09 Mar 2010 16:59:19 -0600Yeah, I've managed to create my own track and stall independent ratings for each horse and found that jockeys do make a difference, albeit an irrelevant one, and I'm sure trainers do nothing at all.Not only that, but we're working on a sample size ofhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23531618/virtual-horse-forecast-price-700?post_id=420809602#420809602Yeah, I've managed to create my own track and stall independent ratings for each horse and found that jockeys do make a difference, albeit an irrelevant one, and I'm sure trainers do nothing at all.Not only that, but we're working on a sample size ofTue, 09 Mar 2010 13:23:58 -0600Forgot to add -- even the speed ratings are largely irrelevant.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23531618/virtual-horse-forecast-price-700?post_id=420809598#420809598Forgot to add -- even the speed ratings are largely irrelevant.Tue, 09 Mar 2010 13:09:34 -0600The whole thing is poorly done imo Lori. The trainers and jockeys are purely cosmetic, each horse flips between trainers and jockeys for each run, a horse can run in two races twenty minutes apart at different tracks -- there's no level of engagemenhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23531618/virtual-horse-forecast-price-700?post_id=420809594#420809594The whole thing is poorly done imo Lori. The trainers and jockeys are purely cosmetic, each horse flips between trainers and jockeys for each run, a horse can run in two races twenty minutes apart at different tracks -- there's no level of engagemenTue, 09 Mar 2010 13:08:27 -0600Also suspect there's some porkies being told. I cant for the life of me find any difference in the skill level of the trainers!https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23531618/virtual-horse-forecast-price-700?post_id=420809590#420809590Also suspect there's some porkies being told. I cant for the life of me find any difference in the skill level of the trainers!Tue, 09 Mar 2010 12:46:41 -0600*Thanks for any reply by the way, forgetting my manners here :)https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23531618/virtual-horse-forecast-price-700?post_id=420809586#420809586*Thanks for any reply by the way, forgetting my manners here :)Tue, 09 Mar 2010 12:45:28 -0600I'm looking for that, but for historical races.I had a feeling from some messing about that they were rather too accurate to make the game worthwhile, would prefer 25 trials for some nice errors.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23531618/virtual-horse-forecast-price-700?post_id=420809582#420809582I'm looking for that, but for historical races.I had a feeling from some messing about that they were rather too accurate to make the game worthwhile, would prefer 25 trials for some nice errors.Tue, 09 Mar 2010 12:45:00 -0600Column X in the 'upcoming races' excel file show the forecast prices for each horse's previous ten runs - is that what you're after Lori?Tidbit of info -- I've done correlation analysis on the forecast prices and I can tell you they are quite accurathttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23531618/virtual-horse-forecast-price-700?post_id=420809578#420809578Column X in the 'upcoming races' excel file show the forecast prices for each horse's previous ten runs - is that what you're after Lori?Tidbit of info -- I've done correlation analysis on the forecast prices and I can tell you they are quite accuratTue, 09 Mar 2010 12:42:28 -0600SM,Is there a way to get backdated forecast prices? I can get all the backdated results, and the forecast prices for today, but the column with the backdated forecast prices as per the documentation appears to have been deletedhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23531618/virtual-horse-forecast-price-700?post_id=420809574#420809574SM,Is there a way to get backdated forecast prices? I can get all the backdated results, and the forecast prices for today, but the column with the backdated forecast prices as per the documentation appears to have been deletedTue, 09 Mar 2010 12:25:30 -0600