New Posts For Thread: suggestions please...https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512766/suggestions-pleaseI have been following a football system this season which has been quite successful,20/25 winning selections at a price of around 1.80 on each one.This bet only occurs about 40 times a season.Now i'm fully aware that 25 times in not anywhere near a mDecided to have £200 and have two £600 banks,might appear to be slightly risky but only about a dozen games left til the end of the season and i'll rethink my stakes then.Managed to get 1.84 on tonights game.Hopefully I have an edge to put to my adhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512766/suggestions-please?post_id=420136030#420136030Decided to have £200 and have two £600 banks,might appear to be slightly risky but only about a dozen games left til the end of the season and i'll rethink my stakes then.Managed to get 1.84 on tonights game.Hopefully I have an edge to put to my adWed, 10 Feb 2010 12:25:42 -0600thanks escapee,appreciate your comments.Its not that I know the strike rate will decrease but a 80% s/r at odds of 1.80,The system can't be that good!!It is tempting to be a tad reckless at times but historically,personally speaking,if i have rushedhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512766/suggestions-please?post_id=420135890#420135890thanks escapee,appreciate your comments.Its not that I know the strike rate will decrease but a 80% s/r at odds of 1.80,The system can't be that good!!It is tempting to be a tad reckless at times but historically,personally speaking,if i have rushedMon, 08 Feb 2010 12:08:12 -0600Also one import aspect to remeber is that if you think the 80% strike rate is going to decrease then the likelyhood of it manifesting itself as a serries of losers in the short term is far higher than it manifesting itself as another sequence of winshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512766/suggestions-please?post_id=420135886#420135886Also one import aspect to remeber is that if you think the 80% strike rate is going to decrease then the likelyhood of it manifesting itself as a serries of losers in the short term is far higher than it manifesting itself as another sequence of winsMon, 08 Feb 2010 11:45:22 -0600again my maths is bad£300 bank, 80% stike rate, £100 unit = 0.8% chance of busting bank with 3 losershttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512766/suggestions-please?post_id=420135882#420135882again my maths is bad£300 bank, 80% stike rate, £100 unit = 0.8% chance of busting bank with 3 losersMon, 08 Feb 2010 11:36:22 -0600Because you say the 80% strike is probably going to decrease you're going to have to guessimate the stike rate to be able to work out how reckless a unit of £150 is using a single £1200 bank.With a sample of just 25, any losses in the next few betshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512766/suggestions-please?post_id=420135878#420135878Because you say the 80% strike is probably going to decrease you're going to have to guessimate the stike rate to be able to work out how reckless a unit of £150 is using a single £1200 bank.With a sample of just 25, any losses in the next few betsMon, 08 Feb 2010 11:30:28 -0600thanks for the reply escapee,Its an 80% strike rate at the moment but in i'm pretty sure over the course of 5 seasons say,that it would probably be less.Given that the chance of 4 consecutive losers is pretty small, 016%,I wonder what the chance of ghttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512766/suggestions-please?post_id=420135874#420135874thanks for the reply escapee,Its an 80% strike rate at the moment but in i'm pretty sure over the course of 5 seasons say,that it would probably be less.Given that the chance of 4 consecutive losers is pretty small, 016%,I wonder what the chance of gMon, 08 Feb 2010 10:46:43 -0600The system is based on sound logical thought... Is there an ingredient which others may have overlooked ? If so, you may have something but if not, perhaps a blip. As you say, not enough sample really, but good luck anyway.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512766/suggestions-please?post_id=420135870#420135870The system is based on sound logical thought... Is there an ingredient which others may have overlooked ? If so, you may have something but if not, perhaps a blip. As you say, not enough sample really, but good luck anyway.Mon, 08 Feb 2010 10:40:13 -0600I new my brain wasn't working enough for the maths...4 Consecutive losers on an 80% srike rate =100 x 0.2 x 0.2 x 0.2 x 0.2 = 0.0016 or 0.16% chance of happening... nicehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512766/suggestions-please?post_id=420135866#420135866I new my brain wasn't working enough for the maths...4 Consecutive losers on an 80% srike rate =100 x 0.2 x 0.2 x 0.2 x 0.2 = 0.0016 or 0.16% chance of happening... niceMon, 08 Feb 2010 10:16:14 -0600Given that there is always a percentage chance that a winning system will go boke before ithas proved itself, no matter how big an edge it has.The questions I ask myself when implementing a new system are:a) What percent chance do I want to give it thttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512766/suggestions-please?post_id=420135862#420135862Given that there is always a percentage chance that a winning system will go boke before ithas proved itself, no matter how big an edge it has.The questions I ask myself when implementing a new system are:a) What percent chance do I want to give it tMon, 08 Feb 2010 10:06:15 -0600cheers tarantula,me toohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512766/suggestions-please?post_id=420135854#420135854cheers tarantula,me tooMon, 08 Feb 2010 07:55:10 -0600