New Posts For Thread: Statistics questionhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512674/statistics-questionIf a set of criteria returns 8% winners, can anyone tell me what the expected highest run of consecutive losers would be in 4000 trials.To make it a bit more specific, what would be the highest number of consecutive losers in 4000 trials with at leasStatistics don't give answers they merely raise more questions.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512674/statistics-question?post_id=420134494#420134494Statistics don't give answers they merely raise more questions.Mon, 08 Feb 2010 16:32:04 -0600Thanks farra.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512674/statistics-question?post_id=420134410#420134410Thanks farra.Mon, 08 Feb 2010 08:27:23 -0600That formula estimates an outer limit to the maximum LS which is different to the mathematical expected value (76) of the distribution of all possible maximum LS's.I make a maximum LS of 99 a 0.6% chance of occurring and 99 or less 93%.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512674/statistics-question?post_id=420134406#420134406That formula estimates an outer limit to the maximum LS which is different to the mathematical expected value (76) of the distribution of all possible maximum LS's.I make a maximum LS of 99 a 0.6% chance of occurring and 99 or less 93%.Mon, 08 Feb 2010 04:19:39 -0600Tpo2rated,I plugged in the labels, formula, and parameters but came up with 99.471 rather than farra's answer of 76, which is intuitively (and hopefully) closer to the mark.Sorry to bug you with this, but possible typo in the formula?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512674/statistics-question?post_id=420134378#420134378Tpo2rated,I plugged in the labels, formula, and parameters but came up with 99.471 rather than farra's answer of 76, which is intuitively (and hopefully) closer to the mark.Sorry to bug you with this, but possible typo in the formula?Sun, 07 Feb 2010 22:47:40 -0600Very useful, thanks farra/top2https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512674/statistics-question?post_id=420134314#420134314Very useful, thanks farra/top2Sun, 07 Feb 2010 07:29:27 -0600Statistics mean nothingarecent survey found out 42% of people dont believe in themhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512674/statistics-question?post_id=420134310#420134310Statistics mean nothingarecent survey found out 42% of people dont believe in themSun, 07 Feb 2010 04:09:04 -0600Via a spreadsheet......Label cell A1 TrialsLabel cell B1 StrikeRate Label cell C1 LLREnter 4000 in cell A2Enter 8% in cell B2Enter formula =LOG(A2)/(LOG(1-B2)*-1) in cell C2https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512674/statistics-question?post_id=420134306#420134306Via a spreadsheet......Label cell A1 TrialsLabel cell B1 StrikeRate Label cell C1 LLREnter 4000 in cell A2Enter 8% in cell B2Enter formula =LOG(A2)/(LOG(1-B2)*-1) in cell C2Sun, 07 Feb 2010 04:03:13 -0600The expected is about 76. The 50% mark is about 73, you have a 50% chance it will be 73 or less and 50% chance that it will be 73 or more.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512674/statistics-question?post_id=420134302#420134302The expected is about 76. The 50% mark is about 73, you have a 50% chance it will be 73 or less and 50% chance that it will be 73 or more.Sun, 07 Feb 2010 03:14:13 -0600If a set of criteria returns 8% winners, can anyone tell me what the expected highest run of consecutive losers would be in 4000 trials.To make it a bit more specific, what would be the highest number of consecutive losers in 4000 trials with at leashttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512674/statistics-question?post_id=420134298#420134298If a set of criteria returns 8% winners, can anyone tell me what the expected highest run of consecutive losers would be in 4000 trials.To make it a bit more specific, what would be the highest number of consecutive losers in 4000 trials with at leasSat, 06 Feb 2010 22:53:53 -0600