New Posts For Thread: Probability Questionhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512634/probability-questionI'm trying to work out the probablility of a horse winning where you only choose from the first 3 in the betting.For example if say the top 3 favourites statistically win 55% of races (Fave. 26%, 2nd Fave. 17%, 3rd Fave 13%), how can I work out the cHayden Your spot on Re the public ...... Why they take thier bets out of thier morning paper ,.. no input its Newsboys nap and all that jazz .....https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512634/probability-question?post_id=420134198#420134198Hayden Your spot on Re the public ...... Why they take thier bets out of thier morning paper ,.. no input its Newsboys nap and all that jazz .....Mon, 08 Feb 2010 07:44:37 -0600It was a "tough" race to watch...but worked well again for me ...with winner backed small ...and lay kicking in etc.....https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512634/probability-question?post_id=420134186#420134186It was a "tough" race to watch...but worked well again for me ...with winner backed small ...and lay kicking in etc.....Mon, 08 Feb 2010 06:58:05 -0600In 1.50 race ...have layed TOPLESS ( a TREACLE TART in 1st race and now laying TOPLESS 2nd.......maybe i got get out moreeeeeeeeeeeeeee :D) and backed a few again......Will be expensive if wrong on lay £240 liability.....but it is just one way of bhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512634/probability-question?post_id=420134182#420134182In 1.50 race ...have layed TOPLESS ( a TREACLE TART in 1st race and now laying TOPLESS 2nd.......maybe i got get out moreeeeeeeeeeeeeee :D) and backed a few again......Will be expensive if wrong on lay £240 liability.....but it is just one way of bMon, 08 Feb 2010 06:43:46 -0600the public lose money , that's your first clue with still a few more required.good luck with your research.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512634/probability-question?post_id=420134178#420134178the public lose money , that's your first clue with still a few more required.good luck with your research.Mon, 08 Feb 2010 06:43:05 -0600This is the "problem" ......although races can have similar "shape" re field of runners, the going etc can be different.........I think what you are concentrating on is very very hard to do with top 3 in betting......but if you do have an edge, it phttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512634/probability-question?post_id=420134174#420134174This is the "problem" ......although races can have similar "shape" re field of runners, the going etc can be different.........I think what you are concentrating on is very very hard to do with top 3 in betting......but if you do have an edge, it pMon, 08 Feb 2010 06:40:26 -0600Thanks DFCIRONMAN, I wouldn't be blindly picking out of the 3, I'd still study the form etc. I just thought if I only chose from the top 3 or 4 in the betting it would keep my ave. laying odds down. Obviously I'd still need an 'edge' and to find 'valhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512634/probability-question?post_id=420134166#420134166Thanks DFCIRONMAN, I wouldn't be blindly picking out of the 3, I'd still study the form etc. I just thought if I only chose from the top 3 or 4 in the betting it would keep my ave. laying odds down. Obviously I'd still need an 'edge' and to find 'valMon, 08 Feb 2010 06:26:34 -0600smudger2kuk 08 Feb 13:01 I'm trying to work out the probablility of a horse winning where you only choose from the first 3 in the betting.==================================================Sounds like you are playing "Russian Roulette"......pichttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512634/probability-question?post_id=420134162#420134162smudger2kuk 08 Feb 13:01 I'm trying to work out the probablility of a horse winning where you only choose from the first 3 in the betting.==================================================Sounds like you are playing "Russian Roulette"......picMon, 08 Feb 2010 06:21:07 -0600Take this years Gold Cup the fav will be 10/11 at best .....https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512634/probability-question?post_id=420134158#420134158Take this years Gold Cup the fav will be 10/11 at best .....Mon, 08 Feb 2010 06:19:32 -0600Take this years Gold Cup the fav will be 10/11 at best .....https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512634/probability-question?post_id=420134154#420134154Take this years Gold Cup the fav will be 10/11 at best .....Mon, 08 Feb 2010 06:19:24 -0600Take the Grand National the fav could be 9/1 ......https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512634/probability-question?post_id=420134150#420134150Take the Grand National the fav could be 9/1 ......Mon, 08 Feb 2010 06:17:37 -0600