New Posts For Thread: Value in higher odds?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23511990/value-in-higher-oddsDo you think it's worth backing at higher odds for valuem or is that just a myth?The Investor 28 Jan 20:46 Understanding why you make money (or at least thinking you understand) is very helpful. You need to be ready to stop or lower stakes as soon as the fundamentals start to break down, and be ready to reassess whether your ihttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23511990/value-in-higher-odds?post_id=420122206#420122206The Investor 28 Jan 20:46 Understanding why you make money (or at least thinking you understand) is very helpful. You need to be ready to stop or lower stakes as soon as the fundamentals start to break down, and be ready to reassess whether your iFri, 29 Jan 2010 18:01:18 -0600I am assuming with strike rate that it is when there is a long term positive expectancy.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23511990/value-in-higher-odds?post_id=420122186#420122186I am assuming with strike rate that it is when there is a long term positive expectancy.Fri, 29 Jan 2010 14:07:01 -0600bushy 29 Jan 14:36 Strike rate is a ludicrous concept. It's just a function of what odds you choose to bet at. .............................................................................If everyone operated like robots you would be correct. Unforhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23511990/value-in-higher-odds?post_id=420122182#420122182bushy 29 Jan 14:36 Strike rate is a ludicrous concept. It's just a function of what odds you choose to bet at. .............................................................................If everyone operated like robots you would be correct. UnforFri, 29 Jan 2010 14:05:27 -0600Strike rate is a ludicrous concept. It's just a function of what odds you choose to bet at.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23511990/value-in-higher-odds?post_id=420122102#420122102Strike rate is a ludicrous concept. It's just a function of what odds you choose to bet at.Fri, 29 Jan 2010 07:36:32 -0600You won't win money by strike rate if the prices are so skinny that you don't have any value.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23511990/value-in-higher-odds?post_id=420122098#420122098You won't win money by strike rate if the prices are so skinny that you don't have any value.Fri, 29 Jan 2010 06:58:33 -0600Investor, you seem clued up and probably make more money out of this than I do. Found the above a bit difficult to get my head around but I think I can agree with it by saying..3 ways to win are luck, strike rate or value (or any combination). I thinhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23511990/value-in-higher-odds?post_id=420122078#420122078Investor, you seem clued up and probably make more money out of this than I do. Found the above a bit difficult to get my head around but I think I can agree with it by saying..3 ways to win are luck, strike rate or value (or any combination). I thinThu, 28 Jan 2010 14:07:28 -0600Just an example as obviously the chance of :winning 49 out of 50 markets and his average loss (occurring once) equaling his average win happening by luck alone is much lower than 1 in 1000.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23511990/value-in-higher-odds?post_id=420122074#420122074Just an example as obviously the chance of :winning 49 out of 50 markets and his average loss (occurring once) equaling his average win happening by luck alone is much lower than 1 in 1000.Thu, 28 Jan 2010 13:50:01 -0600Pleasegivemeanailedontip 26 Jan 23:04 Can't deny that if you're getting value you will win, but the contention is that you will never know or be able to prove your judgement. [...]I agree with that, but you can deduce the likelihood that profhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23511990/value-in-higher-odds?post_id=420122070#420122070Pleasegivemeanailedontip 26 Jan 23:04 Can't deny that if you're getting value you will win, but the contention is that you will never know or be able to prove your judgement. [...]I agree with that, but you can deduce the likelihood that profThu, 28 Jan 2010 13:46:45 -0600The problem with that ^^^^^ is that it's almost impossible to predict, with any degree of accuracy, the difference between a 0.1% chance and a 0.2% chance, as both will hardly ever happen. Deciding if something should be 4/6 (60% chance) instead of 8https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23511990/value-in-higher-odds?post_id=420122066#420122066The problem with that ^^^^^ is that it's almost impossible to predict, with any degree of accuracy, the difference between a 0.1% chance and a 0.2% chance, as both will hardly ever happen. Deciding if something should be 4/6 (60% chance) instead of 8Thu, 28 Jan 2010 12:57:04 -0600mitch88 28 Jan 16:20 Would you back something that was 1,000/1 if you thought it should only be 500/1 ?Erm, yes.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23511990/value-in-higher-odds?post_id=420122062#420122062mitch88 28 Jan 16:20 Would you back something that was 1,000/1 if you thought it should only be 500/1 ?Erm, yes.Thu, 28 Jan 2010 09:30:15 -0600