New Posts For Thread: Lost the edge or just probability?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494774/lost-the-edge-or-just-probabilityHow do I know if I've lost the edge?Historically - the last1303 races to be precise - I have had a consistent edge wth a nice looking steady up curve. My strike rate is 53.3%, and for each £1.00 (after commission) I make on the winners I lose £0.9I have found my edge significantly diminished since september last year. It first started creaking in june following a long period of stability. Can't really explain it. It could be seasonal factors but these have not had an impact before. More lhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494774/lost-the-edge-or-just-probability?post_id=419714270#419714270I have found my edge significantly diminished since september last year. It first started creaking in june following a long period of stability. Can't really explain it. It could be seasonal factors but these have not had an impact before. More lTue, 19 Jan 2010 02:37:05 -0600Well done, sound analysis, and well worth bearing in mind the implications of bad weather and cancelled meetings for the futurehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494774/lost-the-edge-or-just-probability?post_id=419714266#419714266Well done, sound analysis, and well worth bearing in mind the implications of bad weather and cancelled meetings for the futureTue, 19 Jan 2010 02:13:31 -0600Thanks for the replies - all very helpful.So it seems to me that one or more of a number of things could be happening here as follows:1. I didn't have an edge in the first place, my back testing sample wasn't large enough, and/or the underpinning loghttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494774/lost-the-edge-or-just-probability?post_id=419714258#419714258Thanks for the replies - all very helpful.So it seems to me that one or more of a number of things could be happening here as follows:1. I didn't have an edge in the first place, my back testing sample wasn't large enough, and/or the underpinning logMon, 18 Jan 2010 23:51:03 -0600Thanks for the replies - all very helpful.So it seems to me that one or more of a number of things could be happening here as follows:1. I didn't have an edge in the first place, my back testing sample wasn't large enough, and/or the underpinning loghttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494774/lost-the-edge-or-just-probability?post_id=419714254#419714254Thanks for the replies - all very helpful.So it seems to me that one or more of a number of things could be happening here as follows:1. I didn't have an edge in the first place, my back testing sample wasn't large enough, and/or the underpinning logMon, 18 Jan 2010 23:49:31 -0600you can model the probablility of a losing streak in Excel using monte carlo simulation.Since you have a known sample size and a win loss ratio over time. you can then run the sim to establish what the percentile chance of a losing run of x bets is.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494774/lost-the-edge-or-just-probability?post_id=419714178#419714178you can model the probablility of a losing streak in Excel using monte carlo simulation.Since you have a known sample size and a win loss ratio over time. you can then run the sim to establish what the percentile chance of a losing run of x bets is.Sun, 17 Jan 2010 16:22:29 -0600there was a full moon on 11th Jan ;)https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494774/lost-the-edge-or-just-probability?post_id=419714174#419714174there was a full moon on 11th Jan ;)Sun, 17 Jan 2010 16:13:55 -0600the only system stats you need are your Pand LIf you're in the bath pull the plug outhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494774/lost-the-edge-or-just-probability?post_id=419714170#419714170the only system stats you need are your Pand LIf you're in the bath pull the plug outSun, 17 Jan 2010 15:57:31 -0600Just remembered a useful check whether a system is still valid and just going through a statistical abberation is to assess whether the number of 2nds is in line with what you expect or whether they too have fallen awayhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494774/lost-the-edge-or-just-probability?post_id=419714166#419714166Just remembered a useful check whether a system is still valid and just going through a statistical abberation is to assess whether the number of 2nds is in line with what you expect or whether they too have fallen awaySun, 17 Jan 2010 15:43:27 -0600Err how can you know something works irrespective of figures?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494774/lost-the-edge-or-just-probability?post_id=419714162#419714162Err how can you know something works irrespective of figures?Sun, 17 Jan 2010 14:41:47 -0600yes that's exactly what i'm saying tbh , I would be comfortable explaining why my system works by logic and sensible reasoning alone and then offer the stats as a support if required , think you'll find that most systems developed with stats alone arhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494774/lost-the-edge-or-just-probability?post_id=419714158#419714158yes that's exactly what i'm saying tbh , I would be comfortable explaining why my system works by logic and sensible reasoning alone and then offer the stats as a support if required , think you'll find that most systems developed with stats alone arSun, 17 Jan 2010 11:59:53 -0600