New Posts For Thread: Significance of Samplehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494746/significance-of-sampleI have been paper trading a system recently on football matches.There have been 700 matches in the trial and there have been 1242 bets, not all of the games have had bets on though, maybe 600 have had bets on.The bets have had average odds of 68.04.THave I got this right?An average of just over 2 bets per match and just 2 of the 58 winning bets account for almost all of the profit?Wouldn't get those betting boots on just yet.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494746/significance-of-sample?post_id=419713894#419713894Have I got this right?An average of just over 2 bets per match and just 2 of the 58 winning bets account for almost all of the profit?Wouldn't get those betting boots on just yet.Mon, 18 Jan 2010 12:58:27 -0600Shezter , i bet only level stakes = 0.25% of bank ,therefore increasing as bank increases.I would not consider any 'staking plans' until you are 110% sure your method works at level stakes. GL.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494746/significance-of-sample?post_id=419713886#419713886Shezter , i bet only level stakes = 0.25% of bank ,therefore increasing as bank increases.I would not consider any 'staking plans' until you are 110% sure your method works at level stakes. GL.Mon, 18 Jan 2010 12:16:47 -0600Your expected number of winners at those avrage odds is 18 which gives you an enourmous ARCHIE score of around 90. Get your betting boots on.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494746/significance-of-sample?post_id=419713878#419713878Your expected number of winners at those avrage odds is 18 which gives you an enourmous ARCHIE score of around 90. Get your betting boots on.Mon, 18 Jan 2010 11:48:24 -0600Backing at big double and treble figures requires not 700 matches, but more like 7000 before you can draw conclusions IMO. I would need 700 for evens chances.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494746/significance-of-sample?post_id=419713870#419713870Backing at big double and treble figures requires not 700 matches, but more like 7000 before you can draw conclusions IMO. I would need 700 for evens chances.Mon, 18 Jan 2010 11:13:16 -0600without knowing exactly what you are doing it may be difficult to get a proper assessment but if, as shown in your example of the two big odds wins you are betting Correct Score, then unless the odds on offer are too high (which they may be) you mayhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494746/significance-of-sample?post_id=419713866#419713866without knowing exactly what you are doing it may be difficult to get a proper assessment but if, as shown in your example of the two big odds wins you are betting Correct Score, then unless the odds on offer are too high (which they may be) you mayMon, 18 Jan 2010 10:02:09 -0600Kelly hasn't enhanced ROI, it has given about a 16% ROI, which I believe is better than level stakes as the high odds winners don't affect the variance as much because a lot less is staked on a 100/1 shot rather than a 3/1 shot.This is why I was askihttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494746/significance-of-sample?post_id=419713862#419713862Kelly hasn't enhanced ROI, it has given about a 16% ROI, which I believe is better than level stakes as the high odds winners don't affect the variance as much because a lot less is staked on a 100/1 shot rather than a 3/1 shot.This is why I was askiMon, 18 Jan 2010 09:54:56 -0600PS - So has Kelly enhanced your returns in reality? If it's worked for you and is based on statistical reasoning for the 'true' chance there's nothing that wrong with it. It's other 'stepping-stone' or doubling-up methods that are invalid.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494746/significance-of-sample?post_id=419713858#419713858PS - So has Kelly enhanced your returns in reality? If it's worked for you and is based on statistical reasoning for the 'true' chance there's nothing that wrong with it. It's other 'stepping-stone' or doubling-up methods that are invalid.Mon, 18 Jan 2010 09:40:19 -0600You're actually 300 points up, so you're exactly breaking even on everything else without those 2 bets, which isnt too bad at all .Someone advised to press on and thats fair enough just dont count on a 24% return. Good luck!https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494746/significance-of-sample?post_id=419713854#419713854You're actually 300 points up, so you're exactly breaking even on everything else without those 2 bets, which isnt too bad at all .Someone advised to press on and thats fair enough just dont count on a 24% return. Good luck!Mon, 18 Jan 2010 09:35:26 -0600Many Thanks for your replies to the initial question.Regarding leaing out the large priced outsiders, how would i determine what price I start to leave out the bets?I understand that the profit margin might be town to a couple of big priced winners bhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494746/significance-of-sample?post_id=419713850#419713850Many Thanks for your replies to the initial question.Regarding leaing out the large priced outsiders, how would i determine what price I start to leave out the bets?I understand that the profit margin might be town to a couple of big priced winners bMon, 18 Jan 2010 09:25:43 -0600You need to be careful with sample size calculators because there are several different types according to how the sample is derived.Its questionable whether this is a sample anyway because you can only sample something that currently exists. What yhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494746/significance-of-sample?post_id=419713846#419713846You need to be careful with sample size calculators because there are several different types according to how the sample is derived.Its questionable whether this is a sample anyway because you can only sample something that currently exists. What yMon, 18 Jan 2010 08:05:44 -0600