New Posts For Thread: compiling course statshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494426/compiling-course-statswhich are the most relevant years? last 10, 5 or 3 years maybefor instance backing handicap chasers, you have a profit at a course over 5 years, but a slight loss in last 3. which group of years would you take?or at another course the last 5 years haok chaps, many thanks.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494426/compiling-course-stats?post_id=419704814#419704814ok chaps, many thanks.Wed, 13 Jan 2010 05:12:51 -0600Yes, all good answers to lead you in the right direction. Don't be thinking of 10 years, you may be using a criteria that has shown a loss for 5 consecutive seasons or moreI would add that the Sporting Life annual guide used to run a portfolio whichhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494426/compiling-course-stats?post_id=419704754#419704754Yes, all good answers to lead you in the right direction. Don't be thinking of 10 years, you may be using a criteria that has shown a loss for 5 consecutive seasons or moreI would add that the Sporting Life annual guide used to run a portfolio whichWed, 13 Jan 2010 01:28:59 -0600mitchell dYour original post mentioned handicap chasers.By my reckoning, since 2005 there have been around 4200 such races with a total of around 40,000 runners. As an extreme example of a 'system', using just three filters, backing Venetia Williamshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494426/compiling-course-stats?post_id=419704750#419704750mitchell dYour original post mentioned handicap chasers.By my reckoning, since 2005 there have been around 4200 such races with a total of around 40,000 runners. As an extreme example of a 'system', using just three filters, backing Venetia WilliamsTue, 12 Jan 2010 21:50:45 -0600Many thanks for that interesting comment REM.What's the biggest sample of results required, to define a system as not backfitted. 500, 1000?There must be a loose figure that when arrived at, can overcome the backfitting issue.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494426/compiling-course-stats?post_id=419704746#419704746Many thanks for that interesting comment REM.What's the biggest sample of results required, to define a system as not backfitted. 500, 1000?There must be a loose figure that when arrived at, can overcome the backfitting issue.Tue, 12 Jan 2010 18:18:17 -0600The trouble with this sort of analysis (and it may be back-filling) is that you can never be sure if you have discovered any real insight into the course, trainers, jocks, horses, etc - or just found out that some local betting markets are smarter thhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494426/compiling-course-stats?post_id=419704662#419704662The trouble with this sort of analysis (and it may be back-filling) is that you can never be sure if you have discovered any real insight into the course, trainers, jocks, horses, etc - or just found out that some local betting markets are smarter thSun, 10 Jan 2010 18:19:33 -0600Anything of any merit is factored into the price of the runner. I suspect in the long run your better off selecting horses from stables that you trust are competent and dont show a level stakes profit.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494426/compiling-course-stats?post_id=419704658#419704658Anything of any merit is factored into the price of the runner. I suspect in the long run your better off selecting horses from stables that you trust are competent and dont show a level stakes profit.Sun, 10 Jan 2010 17:59:25 -0600although if you've a 1500 race sample with a ROI of 115% I think you have something to work on.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494426/compiling-course-stats?post_id=419704614#419704614although if you've a 1500 race sample with a ROI of 115% I think you have something to work on.Sun, 10 Jan 2010 14:05:57 -0600good advice, thanks for that.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494426/compiling-course-stats?post_id=419704610#419704610good advice, thanks for that.Sun, 10 Jan 2010 14:04:06 -0600I'd have thought that you should be asking yourself why particular years have shown a profit and other years a loss.Personally I wouldn't waste my time with these type of stats as there are a thousand and one things that can skew the figures. As an ehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494426/compiling-course-stats?post_id=419704606#419704606I'd have thought that you should be asking yourself why particular years have shown a profit and other years a loss.Personally I wouldn't waste my time with these type of stats as there are a thousand and one things that can skew the figures. As an eSun, 10 Jan 2010 13:08:29 -06003 good answers so far. lolhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494426/compiling-course-stats?post_id=419704522#4197045223 good answers so far. lolSun, 10 Jan 2010 08:09:45 -0600