New Posts For Thread: Margin of error in priceshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494318/margin-of-error-in-pricesCan anyone help me decide what my margin of error should be in the prices I calculate versus available price please?If my edge is 2% then I will in theory bet when prices are 2% better if my proces were 100%accurate but as realistically they're not imr magoo, can i read that without subscribing? please post a link if you have one.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494318/margin-of-error-in-prices?post_id=419701326#419701326mr magoo, can i read that without subscribing? please post a link if you have one.Mon, 11 Jan 2010 16:30:22 -0600beagel 3, I take it you've read the paper 'Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report' by William Benter? In that, he makes the same point that the public odds can reflect hidden knowledge, and so combining the current oddshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494318/margin-of-error-in-prices?post_id=419701294#419701294beagel 3, I take it you've read the paper 'Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report' by William Benter? In that, he makes the same point that the public odds can reflect hidden knowledge, and so combining the current oddsFri, 08 Jan 2010 14:51:14 -0600I thought it was more value the higher the odds to be honest? Am I wrong??I think 20% better than 1.1 would give us less % profit than 20 better at evens... I know this is probably because statistically you will win more at 20% better than 1.1 but yohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494318/margin-of-error-in-prices?post_id=419701290#419701290I thought it was more value the higher the odds to be honest? Am I wrong??I think 20% better than 1.1 would give us less % profit than 20 better at evens... I know this is probably because statistically you will win more at 20% better than 1.1 but yoFri, 08 Jan 2010 12:22:00 -0600scrooge - i think it comes down to that the way we define 'value' is not very satisfactory. as illustrated above what we call 10% at the extremes is far more valuable to us than at even money. perhaps in reality 3-4% at 1/10 or 10/1 is as valuable ashttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494318/margin-of-error-in-prices?post_id=419701286#419701286scrooge - i think it comes down to that the way we define 'value' is not very satisfactory. as illustrated above what we call 10% at the extremes is far more valuable to us than at even money. perhaps in reality 3-4% at 1/10 or 10/1 is as valuable asFri, 08 Jan 2010 07:18:56 -0600Mr Magoo - i suppose there are two ways of looking at this -the first is that you are betting on a toss of a coin, and someone offers you 5/4 on one toss and someone offers you 6/4 on a different toss. you would undoubtedly stake more on the 6/4 tosshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494318/margin-of-error-in-prices?post_id=419701282#419701282Mr Magoo - i suppose there are two ways of looking at this -the first is that you are betting on a toss of a coin, and someone offers you 5/4 on one toss and someone offers you 6/4 on a different toss. you would undoubtedly stake more on the 6/4 tossFri, 08 Jan 2010 07:10:55 -0600Thanks for your input guys, I understand that in theory less smoney should be staked on long shots than short prices due to the favourite/underdog bias and also because we are not betting an infinite amount of times but I won't be backing anything ovhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494318/margin-of-error-in-prices?post_id=419701278#419701278Thanks for your input guys, I understand that in theory less smoney should be staked on long shots than short prices due to the favourite/underdog bias and also because we are not betting an infinite amount of times but I won't be backing anything ovWed, 06 Jan 2010 13:18:00 -0600good thread.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494318/margin-of-error-in-prices?post_id=419701270#419701270good thread.Wed, 06 Jan 2010 11:43:57 -0600Does the margin of error really matter at all? If the current odds (taking commission into account, of course) are bigger than your own priced-up odds, shouldn't you always back it?When pricing up an event, you will always have a margin of error inhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494318/margin-of-error-in-prices?post_id=419701266#419701266Does the margin of error really matter at all? If the current odds (taking commission into account, of course) are bigger than your own priced-up odds, shouldn't you always back it?When pricing up an event, you will always have a margin of error inWed, 06 Jan 2010 11:41:25 -0600cheers for that.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494318/margin-of-error-in-prices?post_id=419701262#419701262cheers for that.Wed, 06 Jan 2010 11:13:24 -0600The best bit of that article is that he explains how it can lead to bankroll shrinkage if you bet too much on a +EV shot.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23494318/margin-of-error-in-prices?post_id=419701258#419701258The best bit of that article is that he explains how it can lead to bankroll shrinkage if you bet too much on a +EV shot.Wed, 06 Jan 2010 11:05:57 -0600