New Posts For Thread: Sorry more valuehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482230/sorry-more-valueAre there any super disciplined value merchants who NEVER ever think..'You know what, the favourite is cra p value but he'll probably win so I'm just going to back it anyway'eg. 10 points on a 5/1 on favourite who you rate as a 2/1 on shot.Strikes meRegarding value, it is my belief that you can only have a strong opinion on the value of a bet if you have a statistical model that allows you to estimate the likelyhood of the differing events occuring based on previous similar situations. Further thttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482230/sorry-more-value?post_id=419437442#419437442Regarding value, it is my belief that you can only have a strong opinion on the value of a bet if you have a statistical model that allows you to estimate the likelyhood of the differing events occuring based on previous similar situations. Further tSun, 27 Dec 2009 12:03:49 -0600Thanks for both opinons. While I agree that 'punting' and 'pricing' can both be effective, I was angling towards this...If you can effectively predict price then it goes without saying that you could effectively predict outcome. So with all the 'gueshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482230/sorry-more-value?post_id=419437438#419437438Thanks for both opinons. While I agree that 'punting' and 'pricing' can both be effective, I was angling towards this...If you can effectively predict price then it goes without saying that you could effectively predict outcome. So with all the 'guesSun, 27 Dec 2009 11:56:34 -0600OK, good post.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482230/sorry-more-value?post_id=419437434#419437434OK, good post.Sun, 27 Dec 2009 11:25:56 -0600In my opinion, obviously.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482230/sorry-more-value?post_id=419437430#419437430In my opinion, obviously.Sun, 27 Dec 2009 10:59:31 -0600But I believe both use "skill" in their respective methods. For the odds compilers/professional-value-seekers the "skill" is (probably) in the statistical analysis (or algorithm generation).However they differ as follows: The compilers are interestehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482230/sorry-more-value?post_id=419437426#419437426But I believe both use "skill" in their respective methods. For the odds compilers/professional-value-seekers the "skill" is (probably) in the statistical analysis (or algorithm generation).However they differ as follows: The compilers are interesteSun, 27 Dec 2009 10:58:50 -0600Of course there are no true odds on a sporting event such as a single football match but a calculation can be undertaken after considering likelyhood of success. Football compilers, professional and amateurs, do it all the time, and back their opiniohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482230/sorry-more-value?post_id=419437422#419437422Of course there are no true odds on a sporting event such as a single football match but a calculation can be undertaken after considering likelyhood of success. Football compilers, professional and amateurs, do it all the time, and back their opinioSun, 27 Dec 2009 10:45:29 -0600If someone considers the offered price as "correct" or "average". surely he can only win by seeing into the future ? Only imo but if you think it sounds far fetched to predict outcomes of events, think about how unlikely it is that you can predict thhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482230/sorry-more-value?post_id=419437418#419437418If someone considers the offered price as "correct" or "average". surely he can only win by seeing into the future ? Only imo but if you think it sounds far fetched to predict outcomes of events, think about how unlikely it is that you can predict thSun, 27 Dec 2009 10:30:19 -0600^ I was talking more horses but yes any sport including footballNot convinced it's calculable either - or at least - anyone with that level of skill and judgement could arguably make more profit backing more winners with a bit of selective staking.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482230/sorry-more-value?post_id=419437414#419437414^ I was talking more horses but yes any sport including footballNot convinced it's calculable either - or at least - anyone with that level of skill and judgement could arguably make more profit backing more winners with a bit of selective staking.Sun, 27 Dec 2009 10:25:06 -0600Betting on casino games eliminates skill. Betting on football involves skill.The two are not the same. In the former, the probability of each outcome is calculable. I don't believe that is true of football.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482230/sorry-more-value?post_id=419437410#419437410Betting on casino games eliminates skill. Betting on football involves skill.The two are not the same. In the former, the probability of each outcome is calculable. I don't believe that is true of football.Sun, 27 Dec 2009 10:19:03 -0600If someone considers the offered price as "correct" or "average". surely he can only win by seeing into the future ? If not, what skill does he have that others don't ?? one more thing, do you know of such a person ???https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482230/sorry-more-value?post_id=419437406#419437406If someone considers the offered price as "correct" or "average". surely he can only win by seeing into the future ? If not, what skill does he have that others don't ?? one more thing, do you know of such a person ???Sun, 27 Dec 2009 10:16:06 -0600