New Posts For Thread: 'Value' Conundrumhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482090/value-conundrumLets say you have devised a method that gives a (reasonably) accurate guide to the true probabilities of an event, eg football/tennis/hockey/snooker etc. What then would be the best way to bet it?Given that BF prices are also a reasonably accurate guImo if they played again tomorrow with same teams - i wouldn't back fulham at 5/2 and i would be tempted by man u at 1.8. 'Hindsight' on the 'true odds' is obviously a no-brainer.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482090/value-conundrum?post_id=419436318#419436318Imo if they played again tomorrow with same teams - i wouldn't back fulham at 5/2 and i would be tempted by man u at 1.8. 'Hindsight' on the 'true odds' is obviously a no-brainer.Thu, 24 Dec 2009 13:46:55 -0600ManU did drift against Fulham but became very solid around the 1.80 mark from memory. Anyone who thought that 1.80 was too short was being opposed so the concensus of opinion was that 1.80 was the 'right' price. The result means nothing, as things shhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482090/value-conundrum?post_id=419436278#419436278ManU did drift against Fulham but became very solid around the 1.80 mark from memory. Anyone who thought that 1.80 was too short was being opposed so the concensus of opinion was that 1.80 was the 'right' price. The result means nothing, as things shThu, 24 Dec 2009 08:05:40 -0600I think he means that sometimes the market just makes the prices wrong.Take Fulham last week at home to Man U. They were 5/1. Normally that would be about right, but with Man U's defensive injuries the true odds were a lot shorter. I thought maybe 5/https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482090/value-conundrum?post_id=419436258#419436258I think he means that sometimes the market just makes the prices wrong.Take Fulham last week at home to Man U. They were 5/1. Normally that would be about right, but with Man U's defensive injuries the true odds were a lot shorter. I thought maybe 5/Thu, 24 Dec 2009 05:43:23 -0600DaveEdwards 21 Dec 19:18 fgs, don't follow the consensus as a general rule. Make up your own mind after having done your homework. The market can be wrong, even on football. DaveEdwards, what do you mean by that ? That the favourite doesn't alwayhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482090/value-conundrum?post_id=419436230#419436230DaveEdwards 21 Dec 19:18 fgs, don't follow the consensus as a general rule. Make up your own mind after having done your homework. The market can be wrong, even on football. DaveEdwards, what do you mean by that ? That the favourite doesn't alwayWed, 23 Dec 2009 11:53:11 -0600eh ?https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482090/value-conundrum?post_id=419436226#419436226eh ?Wed, 23 Dec 2009 07:43:05 -0600fgs, don't follow the consensus as a general rule. Make up your own mind after having done your homework. The market can be wrong, even on football.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482090/value-conundrum?post_id=419436170#419436170fgs, don't follow the consensus as a general rule. Make up your own mind after having done your homework. The market can be wrong, even on football.Mon, 21 Dec 2009 12:18:06 -0600I really don't buy into this 'efficient market' hypothesis. With all information in the public domain different people still draw different conclusions. FFS, even I draw different conclusions depending on time of day or state of intoxication! Thehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482090/value-conundrum?post_id=419436166#419436166I really don't buy into this 'efficient market' hypothesis. With all information in the public domain different people still draw different conclusions. FFS, even I draw different conclusions depending on time of day or state of intoxication! TheMon, 21 Dec 2009 12:03:55 -0600There are enough occasions where the market is completely wrong to make serious money on here. It is usually the overemphasis or ignorance of one or more factors.Nick Mordin explains them brilliantly as the 'Seven Deadly Sins of punters' in his bookhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482090/value-conundrum?post_id=419436162#419436162There are enough occasions where the market is completely wrong to make serious money on here. It is usually the overemphasis or ignorance of one or more factors.Nick Mordin explains them brilliantly as the 'Seven Deadly Sins of punters' in his bookMon, 21 Dec 2009 11:50:09 -0600I can't see, OP, why (2) would ever be a sensible course of action - unless I have misread it.If you make something evens, and betfair makes it 1.95, you would back it - for what reason? How do you expect to make long term profit following this sorthttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482090/value-conundrum?post_id=419436138#419436138I can't see, OP, why (2) would ever be a sensible course of action - unless I have misread it.If you make something evens, and betfair makes it 1.95, you would back it - for what reason? How do you expect to make long term profit following this sortSun, 20 Dec 2009 04:24:01 -0600completely agree with lozzy, gaining an edge and therefore value is having an opinion which contradicts what the market is telling you, for eg. imperial commander was a perfect example recently at haydock, one of the general consensus was that he alhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23482090/value-conundrum?post_id=419436122#419436122completely agree with lozzy, gaining an edge and therefore value is having an opinion which contradicts what the market is telling you, for eg. imperial commander was a perfect example recently at haydock, one of the general consensus was that he alSat, 19 Dec 2009 15:42:29 -0600