New Posts For Thread: question for stats boyshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23468810/question-for-stats-boysHypotheticaly, If I backed every dog at one particular track that was 3/1 and in the same race laid every dog that was 6/1, I could expect roughly that my backs would win 25% of their races and my lays just over 14% of theirs. right ?Now suppose thaaye robot,Many thanks for your most helpful thread.I can confirm that the win/loss ratio is 65/35 and that it is indeed based on actual figures not backtesting and also that is all based on betfair prices, over a 2000 race.sample.Would'nt use a stakihttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23468810/question-for-stats-boys?post_id=419142730#419142730aye robot,Many thanks for your most helpful thread.I can confirm that the win/loss ratio is 65/35 and that it is indeed based on actual figures not backtesting and also that is all based on betfair prices, over a 2000 race.sample.Would'nt use a stakiSat, 14 Nov 2009 18:10:59 -0600good thread, wise words from the 'robot' again !...https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23468810/question-for-stats-boys?post_id=419142678#419142678good thread, wise words from the 'robot' again !...Sat, 14 Nov 2009 15:49:13 -0600"if I have achieved 87% more winners than losers, there must be some element at work other than just the prices"Sorry to be equivocal, but it depends....To start with your terminology is a bit odd- when you say "I have 87% more winners than losers" Ihttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23468810/question-for-stats-boys?post_id=419142642#419142642"if I have achieved 87% more winners than losers, there must be some element at work other than just the prices"Sorry to be equivocal, but it depends....To start with your terminology is a bit odd- when you say "I have 87% more winners than losers" ISat, 14 Nov 2009 11:14:07 -0600must punters good punters and i meam very good punters .... can only make 10% of turnover ..Very, very few people make 10%, more like 2% to 5% I assure you.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23468810/question-for-stats-boys?post_id=419142638#419142638must punters good punters and i meam very good punters .... can only make 10% of turnover ..Very, very few people make 10%, more like 2% to 5% I assure you.Sat, 14 Nov 2009 10:22:36 -0600Hummingsox ....... lets take your 3 or 4 %... so evens win 46% .. 2/1 win 29% 7/2 win 18% and heres the real killer 12/1 win 4% ......... By the way 4% of a million is £40.000..... musthttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23468810/question-for-stats-boys?post_id=419142634#419142634Hummingsox ....... lets take your 3 or 4 %... so evens win 46% .. 2/1 win 29% 7/2 win 18% and heres the real killer 12/1 win 4% ......... By the way 4% of a million is £40.000..... mustSat, 14 Nov 2009 09:57:11 -0600As there are more factors creating the sp than the draw adv.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23468810/question-for-stats-boys?post_id=419142630#419142630As there are more factors creating the sp than the draw adv.Sat, 14 Nov 2009 09:44:19 -0600It would depend on which sp you use to calculate your % .https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23468810/question-for-stats-boys?post_id=419142626#419142626It would depend on which sp you use to calculate your % .Sat, 14 Nov 2009 09:33:10 -0600Hi Zip,I cant argue with you on that, they are just ballpark figures, something to use for comparison purposes etc, though I think they are probably within 3 or 4% over a LONG period.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23468810/question-for-stats-boys?post_id=419142622#419142622Hi Zip,I cant argue with you on that, they are just ballpark figures, something to use for comparison purposes etc, though I think they are probably within 3 or 4% over a LONG period.Sat, 14 Nov 2009 09:32:56 -0600Heres my take on odds .. give you four ...... evens 50%...... 2/1 33% 7/2 22% 12/1 8 % thats in theory .. over a long time they all return much less than theory ... EG evens dont win 50% ohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23468810/question-for-stats-boys?post_id=419142618#419142618Heres my take on odds .. give you four ...... evens 50%...... 2/1 33% 7/2 22% 12/1 8 % thats in theory .. over a long time they all return much less than theory ... EG evens dont win 50% oSat, 14 Nov 2009 09:21:16 -0600aye robot, thanks for that.would you just confirm then in that case, that based on the figures in my first post if I have achieved 87% more winners than losers, there must be some element at work other than just the prices.And would you make the ashttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23468810/question-for-stats-boys?post_id=419142614#419142614aye robot, thanks for that.would you just confirm then in that case, that based on the figures in my first post if I have achieved 87% more winners than losers, there must be some element at work other than just the prices.And would you make the asSat, 14 Nov 2009 09:07:48 -0600