New Posts For Thread: The odds that you will pay PC by chance.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23380146/the-odds-that-you-will-pay-pc-by-chanceI have long thought that 250 markets are not nearly enough to smooth out random fluctuations of luck, and that many people who are not even winning punters (let alone true long-term 20% commission payers) could get caught in the net.So I did some calShort-term 1.01 losses gut the basketball clientelle on here. Another one tonight, they never seem to learn but there is a lot less of them these days.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23380146/the-odds-that-you-will-pay-pc-by-chance?post_id=416253858#416253858Short-term 1.01 losses gut the basketball clientelle on here. Another one tonight, they never seem to learn but there is a lot less of them these days.Wed, 04 Nov 2009 23:26:29 -0600By the way, certain 1.01 backers are performing a service. Let's say that there is a month to go in the Premier League and Chelsea are way ahead on points, only a miracle could stop them winning, the bookies have paid out already. Perhaps Chelsea shohttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23380146/the-odds-that-you-will-pay-pc-by-chance?post_id=416253838#416253838By the way, certain 1.01 backers are performing a service. Let's say that there is a month to go in the Premier League and Chelsea are way ahead on points, only a miracle could stop them winning, the bookies have paid out already. Perhaps Chelsea shoWed, 04 Nov 2009 18:26:40 -0600Treble, it doesn't make a lot of difference if the punter has no edge at all. Backing 1.01 shots, such a punter has a 55% chance of accidentally falling below the magic 20% comm rate after 250 markets (Joe had 58% chance). I didn't choose a no-edgehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23380146/the-odds-that-you-will-pay-pc-by-chance?post_id=416253830#416253830Treble, it doesn't make a lot of difference if the punter has no edge at all. Backing 1.01 shots, such a punter has a 55% chance of accidentally falling below the magic 20% comm rate after 250 markets (Joe had 58% chance). I didn't choose a no-edgeWed, 04 Nov 2009 16:30:16 -0600If you are a high odds layer, the odds that you will pay PC can easily be 80%+. If your sole strategy involves backing 1.01 laying 100+, PC can increase volatility to the extent where it no longer makes sense to bet at all.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23380146/the-odds-that-you-will-pay-pc-by-chance?post_id=416253826#416253826If you are a high odds layer, the odds that you will pay PC can easily be 80%+. If your sole strategy involves backing 1.01 laying 100+, PC can increase volatility to the extent where it no longer makes sense to bet at all.Wed, 04 Nov 2009 15:52:50 -0600I accept that - but that doesn't befit "the odds you will pay PC by chance" since you don't get an edge, however small, by chance.https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23380146/the-odds-that-you-will-pay-pc-by-chance?post_id=416253786#416253786I accept that - but that doesn't befit "the odds you will pay PC by chance" since you don't get an edge, however small, by chance.Mon, 02 Nov 2009 10:10:33 -0600but the original poster just constructed an example of a punter who did have an edge which was exactly equal to commission - on that premise, his numbers are all correcthe called the punter joe, which you appear to have read as "average joe" and thenhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23380146/the-odds-that-you-will-pay-pc-by-chance?post_id=416253778#416253778but the original poster just constructed an example of a punter who did have an edge which was exactly equal to commission - on that premise, his numbers are all correcthe called the punter joe, which you appear to have read as "average joe" and thenMon, 02 Nov 2009 04:09:14 -0600The initial post is on an important subject but the numbers are false. If we are talking average Joe, let's say he bets 2.00 when the true odds are 2.00. Average Joe isn't going to stumble on a 5 tick edge by accident, and if he does, he's not an avehttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23380146/the-odds-that-you-will-pay-pc-by-chance?post_id=416253774#416253774The initial post is on an important subject but the numbers are false. If we are talking average Joe, let's say he bets 2.00 when the true odds are 2.00. Average Joe isn't going to stumble on a 5 tick edge by accident, and if he does, he's not an aveMon, 02 Nov 2009 01:31:56 -0600It wouldn't matter if people could pay PC by chance if they got it refunded when they went on to lose or they got some sort of commission discount from future bets. But the fact they dont is what's wrong with it, I guess there would be too many loophhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23380146/the-odds-that-you-will-pay-pc-by-chance?post_id=416253770#416253770It wouldn't matter if people could pay PC by chance if they got it refunded when they went on to lose or they got some sort of commission discount from future bets. But the fact they dont is what's wrong with it, I guess there would be too many loophSun, 01 Nov 2009 14:23:54 -0600* this example only applies to a lifetime history of no losseshttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23380146/the-odds-that-you-will-pay-pc-by-chance?post_id=416253762#416253762* this example only applies to a lifetime history of no lossesSun, 01 Nov 2009 06:54:21 -0600ie: punter wins 1000 on week and pays betfair 5% or 50losses on week are nilCommision 50 divided by 2 = 25 + implied (in this case 0 )So total profit of 950 which means punter is only 2.6% of the commission Betfair wants generated for the weekSurcharhttps://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23380146/the-odds-that-you-will-pay-pc-by-chance?post_id=416253758#416253758ie: punter wins 1000 on week and pays betfair 5% or 50losses on week are nilCommision 50 divided by 2 = 25 + implied (in this case 0 )So total profit of 950 which means punter is only 2.6% of the commission Betfair wants generated for the weekSurcharSun, 01 Nov 2009 06:47:40 -0600