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ImSoLuckyLucky!
23 May 24 16:16
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Date Joined: 31 Dec 04
| Topic/replies: 16,557 | Blogger: ImSoLuckyLucky!'s blog
Been a naughty BOY
Laugh
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Report scandanavian_haven May 23, 2024 4:43 PM BST
How can they prove it, I'd love to see footage of these 4 deliberate bookings
Report penzance May 23, 2024 4:50 PM BST
If guilty,how long will the ban be,if there is any?
Report brentford May 23, 2024 4:50 PM BST
saw one of them on twitter when the story originally broke months back..

didn't look good but obviously the vital part is being able to link the action to financial gain by a person linked to him..

his first half performance against England was one of the more remarkable attempts to get a card though whether for financial gain or because he's a complete numpty, I'm not sure.
Report brentford May 23, 2024 4:53 PM BST
https://x.com/i/status/1793664277842407455
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 23, 2024 4:57 PM BST
Was all bets from small village in Brazil where his family live.

Can't be that hard to prove.
Report scandanavian_haven May 23, 2024 4:59 PM BST
if that's true that is pretty dumbCry
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 23, 2024 4:59 PM BST
The player took the yellow in the 24th minute of the second half. Initial analysis showed that on that day several new accounts were created on Betway, linked with people close to Paqueta, with users depositing the maximum amount allowed.

These accounts made a married bet to increase the winnings: the authors would only receive the money if Paquetá took yellow against Villa and if striker Luiz Henrique, from Betis, received the card against Villarreal, on the same day on March 12.
Report brentford May 23, 2024 5:00 PM BST
if that's the case he's probably f**** then...

far more serious offence than either Toney or Tonali..
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 23, 2024 5:01 PM BST
Yep, big if, and that's unofficial sources.

But...
Report 11kv May 23, 2024 5:02 PM BST
Cool
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 23, 2024 5:03 PM BST
The authorities were alerted to suspicious betting patterns after a number of significant bets were placed on Paqueta to be booked in the Villa game within his homeland of Brazil.

The bets are said to have been placed using new accounts registered to addresses close to the midfielder’s hometown of Paqueta Island, near Rio de Janeiro.

Some of those wagers were placed with West Ham’s shirt sponsor Betway. The platform is not commonly used in Brazil and it was the bookmaker who first raised suspicions.
Report penzance May 23, 2024 5:39 PM BST
He was left out of the Brazil squad not long ago because of this,if I
remember rightly,back in it a few days ago.
Report SlippyBlue May 23, 2024 5:45 PM BST
Betway.....Laugh
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 23, 2024 5:53 PM BST
You see a few suspicious tackles at games.

Without the back up that's all they remain.


There was a booking coup flagged up on here
before it happened. Not paqueta.
Report dambuster May 23, 2024 6:05 PM BST
If guilty, he really is Fooked, City won't want him especially when the ban ends, he'll be 48
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 23, 2024 6:08 PM BST
The @FA has charged Lucas Paqueta #WHUFC with four breaches of Rule E5.1 in relation to his conduct in the club’s PL games against LCFC on 12 Nov 2022; AVFC on 12 March 2023; LUFC on 21 May 2023; and Bournemouth on 12 Aug 2023. FA alleges Paqueta "directly sought to influence the progress, conduct, or any other aspect of, or occurrence in these matches by intentionally seeking to receive a card from the referee for the improper purpose of affecting the betting market in order for one or more persons to profit from betting



Citeh lawyers may be his best hope...
Report PorcupineorPineapple May 23, 2024 6:14 PM BST
His only get out could be that it was local gangsters threatening his family maybe. But for such a good player who was tipped to move to City to screw up his career over something like this, it just feels monumentally stupid.
Report 11kv May 23, 2024 6:57 PM BST
Cartel involved for how much ? FFS
Report Racingqueen May 23, 2024 7:47 PM BST
Newcastle were linked at one point. He could have bunked in with Tonali Laugh
Report sparrow May 23, 2024 7:54 PM BST
The games FA charges relate to
West Ham 0-2 Leicester - 12 November 2022

Paqueta booked for a 'lunge' on Leicester midfielder Boubakary Soumare in the 60th minute.

He is booked at 1-0 and the match finishes 2-0 to Leicester.

West Ham 1-1 Aston Villa - 12 March 2023

Paqueta booked for what is described as a 'lunging challenge' on John McGinn in the 70th minute, with the score at 1-1.

West Ham 3-1 Leeds United - 21 May 2023

Paqueta is booked for pulling back Leeds winger Crysencio Summerville on the counter-attack in the 65th minute.

It happens at 1-1, with West Ham going on to win 3-1.

West Ham 1-1 Bournemouth - 12 August 2023

In the opening game of this season, Paqueta is booked for handball in the 94th minute, with the match finishing 1-1.
Report 11kv May 23, 2024 8:01 PM BST
Left it late in opening game !
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 23, 2024 8:37 PM BST
He left it super late as he was subbed off 90+4
Report spyker May 23, 2024 8:54 PM BST
A 4yo could have come up with a better strategy to make this pay. This will be held up as everything that should not be done in teaching people what to look for.
Report sofaking May 23, 2024 9:21 PM BST
His career is over. A very silly boy.
Report penzance May 23, 2024 9:24 PM BST
Not guilty yet.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! May 24, 2024 1:12 PM BST
Yep
all the bets made on Paqueta island
Seems Footballers own islands now
Laugh
Report TCat May 24, 2024 4:25 PM BST
Anyone any idea how much was involved ? Seems to me if the bookmakers don't want to pay out on this type of market they shouldn't be taking the bets in the first place.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 24, 2024 4:33 PM BST
At a guess they deposited £50 eachband put it on.




Back a few years an Irish bookie was offering evs
David duval to miss cut at open. Max £50.some guy flagged it
on furum, and he was sound, and duval struggling.
We all opened accounts
and actually got paid, and banned from future bets.

But even back then they can track and link stuff.

Likely they link same bets and location raises a flag
and they investigate further.

Maybe one guy getting away with it and he blabs
and Thomas, Harold and Richard tell their mates too.
Report sparrow May 29, 2024 9:19 AM BST
It's here.
Report CLYDEBANK29 May 29, 2024 11:02 AM BST
cheers sparrow.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! June 4, 2024 1:12 PM BST
Betway were the
WHISTLE BLOWER

Holy Molly

Laugh
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 4, 2024 6:58 PM BST
West Ham's sponsors lol.  I think Betway are the least trustworthy bookie with a UK license personally.  Wouldn't go near them.
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 4, 2024 7:07 PM BST
If it is Betway, definitely calls into question his guilt imo.  If I was his defence team I'd go through review sites and look into times where Betway might have acted dishonestly.  One of the yellow cards was in the 4th minute of injury time.  How many times was he actually on the pitch in the 4th minute of injury time in the 20 preceding games?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 4, 2024 7:11 PM BST
Are you serious?

It'll be how often they've punted on a card for him
and what's relationship to him.

Was it just a one off got lucky or 4 planned coups.
Or 4 wins out of 40 bets.

Doesn't matter that books might con punters.
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 4, 2024 7:16 PM BST
If they only bet the 4 matches I'll be amazed
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 4, 2024 7:18 PM BST
he got 5 yellow cards in 22/23 and 3 of them were deliberate ... for a player in his position
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 4, 2024 7:19 PM BST
he got 10 last season
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 4, 2024 7:21 PM BST
so he got twice as many yellow cards when he wasn't deliberately getting them than when he was
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 4, 2024 7:22 PM BST
and if you are getting a deliberate yellow card why wait to the 4th minute of IT?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 4, 2024 7:23 PM BST
So the bookies records are vital.

Doesn't matter what they are, the electronic data held on each punter
will need to be correlated and matched against booking results.

Luck, within reasonable parameters, or a coup or series of coups.
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 4, 2024 7:29 PM BST
If it was Betfair Hills Smarkets etc I'd give the bookie evidence more credence.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 4, 2024 7:32 PM BST
It doesn't matter that they have to recycle winning on slots or bingo
or jump through hoops to get winnings it's simple data records that
need to be analysed by 3rd party.
Report kingscrewed June 4, 2024 7:33 PM BST
The 1 where he was booked in the 90+4 minute, wasnt he continually asking to be subbed from the 70th minute onwards?
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 4, 2024 8:21 PM BST
The problem with the data will be that Betway can hand pick what data they show to support their argument. If it is only that bookie and no other bookie, then I'm deeply suspicious, as it also happens to be the one bookie that I completely don't trust.  I would hope, if he is found guilty, there is other evidence from other sources.
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 4, 2024 8:35 PM BST
If in 2023 the argument put forward is that he only got 2 yellow cards that weren't deliberate, then I reckon that is statistically outside or very close to 95% confidence intervals of his historical yellow card record and that of players playing in his position.  Five yellow cards is probably close to the average of what you'd expect.
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 4, 2024 8:42 PM BST
Add in also that the other yellow card was in the 4th minute of injury time and that there was a very good chance he'd have been substituted by then.  And then add in that the accusations are possibly only from Betway.  Still I don't know, but if he or his lawyers want my help .....
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 4, 2024 9:26 PM BST
They won't be able to hand pick it.

It will be fully disclosed uncorupted and unedited
files.

It's not Betway v paqueta

Betway have coughed up files
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 4, 2024 9:32 PM BST
They've coughed up files to support their evidence.  There's no way it's full disclosure or even close imo.  You don't what info is there that isn't coughed up.  Taken 15 years and hundreds of millions for the PO to cough up files.
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 4, 2024 9:35 PM BST
Betway has no integrity imo.  It's possible it may be malicious or dishonest.  Let's see what other evidence there is.  From a statistical pov the outside evidence is zero.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 4, 2024 9:35 PM BST
It's got nowt to do with post office.

It's accounts punting on paqueta yellow cards.

I've no idea what evidence shows but clearly
Prima facie it needs to be analysed for luck or a coup.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 4, 2024 9:36 PM BST
Why would Betway act dishonesty, lol

They would lose their licence.
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 4, 2024 9:50 PM BST
I'm looking at 22/23.  8 of the 10 most yellow cards were given to midfielders, 7 to central midfielders, soo it's the position that receives the most yellows.  There's an average of about 4 per game.  so let's say 5/1 approx if you start.  He got five in the PL that season from 26 starts and 2 sub appearances.  About average.  At 5/1 per match played there is only a 13% chance that he only received 2 genuine yellow cards.  (just worked it out)
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 4, 2024 9:53 PM BST
Why would Paqueta risk losing his multi million £ career?  Some people are just stupid/deluded or inherently dishonest, or lack integrity, or plain malicious
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 4, 2024 9:57 PM BST
I'm looking at 22/23.  8 of the 10 most yellow cards were given to midfielders, 7 to central midfielders, soo it's the position that receives the most yellows.  There's an average of about 4 per game.  so let's say 5/1 approx if you start.  He got five in the PL that season from 26 starts and 2 sub appearances.  About average.  At 5/1 per match played there is only a 13% chance that he only received 2 genuine yellow cards.  (just worked it out)

This doesn't mean that he isn't guilty ofc.  But as evidence it makes it less likely.
Report mesmerised June 4, 2024 9:59 PM BST
I must be missing something with the reports of him being set to be 'banned for life'

How is that not amazingly disproportionate?

Getting booked to earn a few friends a few quid doesn't warrant a life time ban, a life time ban should be of of the back of trying to rig a game, bribing a ref, deliberately scoring an own goal, betting against your own team etc.

These FA mugs are not football people, they are business/media people wetting themselves over the thought of bad publicity for the league.

It's the same reason they went after their own England captain Terry, even though he had just been cleared by the highest court in the country, not enough for them, they wanted a private prosecution, desperate to pander to the woke brigade, despeate not to lose key sponsorship deals etc.

This'll probably end up at the court of arbitration for sport, where most sportspeople are cleared

Kind Regards.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 4, 2024 10:01 PM BST
Why would Paqueta risk losing his multi million £ career?

Why would tonali?

Why would Toney?

Who knows if he did or did not.

Analysis of the bets will be informative
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 4, 2024 10:17 PM BST
If you were going to accuse someone of fixing a coin toss.  If he had won the same number of coin tosses as he lost over the period, that is statistical evidence that supports their innocence.  The fact is that Paqueta got the expected number of yellow cards in that PL season (not more than expected)
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 4, 2024 10:38 PM BST
I thought you made money on betting?

The statistical analysis is did the bets beat the
expectation, not the bookings beating expectation. Anybody can cover
by getting average amount of bookings, but if the backers
are winning,... And are related by geography are
they lucky or is the luck outside of bounds.

Are the number of backers growing as word gets out
that somebody knows he's getting a card and keeps
getting it right.

Could be a money tree type guesser on good run

The evidence will be there, one way or another.
Report CLYDEBANK29 June 4, 2024 10:43 PM BST
Looking at it in further detail, what is being suggested is that in a period of 28 games he picked up 5 yellow cards and 4 of them were deliberate for betting purposes (and one of these was in the 4th minute of IT).  Then over the next 28 PL games when he wasn't deliberately getting them he picked up 9 more yellow cards.

It totally does not support Betway's interpretation/version of events
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 4, 2024 10:46 PM BST
Well it suggests it needs further investigation.

If árvore de dinheiro lived on paqueta island and
had a good run with his tips that could explain it too.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 5, 2024 1:07 PM BST
Lucas Paqueta's lawyers have requested more time to respond to his FA charge for alleged betting breaches.

The Brazil Football Federation said last week it was informed by the FA that due to the details of the case it anticipated an extension may be requested.
Report DIE LINKE June 5, 2024 1:33 PM BST
These Brazilian lads usually support their villages by buying them a goat they can fck and eat or eat and fck depending on their preferences. Perhaps if he has his time again, he'll plump for the goat.
Report penzance June 5, 2024 1:47 PM BST
He's a player who gets stuck in,rarely shirks a tackle.
Why wait to the 4TH minute of injury time to get booked
aswell.
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