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yeasty
29 Apr 24 11:58
Joined:
Date Joined: 09 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 216 | Blogger: yeasty's blog
Hi all,

I've got 2 separate bets (one is e/w trebles and the other an e/w acca) on Man City, Ipswich, Portsmouth and Stockport winning their leagues. For the first time this season I'm considering a cashout (on the trebles bet) as I think that Leicester have the Championship sewn up. Currently Leicester are c. 1.06 on here and they play Preston away tonight. So my question is...

Roughly what price do you think Leicester will be if they lose to Preston tonight? I'm thinking something like 1.15 but I'm far from a footy expert so any opinions welcome. Thank you.
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Report CLYDEBANK29 April 29, 2024 12:23 PM BST
I think better advice would be to post your bet and the cash out offer.  I'd be amazed if it's not a better option just to lay Man City on the exchange, if you have the funds to do so.  The cash out could possibly screw you on the place even though it's 100% guaranteed.
Report CLYDEBANK29 April 29, 2024 12:30 PM BST
actually City could yet finish third and the PL was 2 places, so it's not totally guaranteed
Report duffy April 29, 2024 1:52 PM BST
I'm guessing that it's the treble with Portsmouth Stockport and City that's the only thing really in play, so, as Clydebank says it's a lay of City or not as the option.
Report yeasty April 29, 2024 3:50 PM BST
4 x £10 e/w trebles

Man City 8/11
Ipswich 16/1
Portsmouth 9/1
Stockport 6/1

Max payout £18,965
Current cashout offer £2,407
Most likely scenario obviously is that City win and Ipswich don't. In that scenario I win £2,073
If neither City nor Ipswich win then it drops to £864, assuming City come 2nd

Outside of this I also have a £10 e/w acca on the same teams that returns £21,059 if they all cop

My inclination is to take the £2,407 cashout on the first bet. I know cashouts are usually awful value but if Leicester win tonight then the max I can win from that bet is £2,073 and that's only if City win...

If I do cashout and they all go onto win then I scoop nearly £23.5k in total. I'll definitely feel sick about burning £17k to retain £330 (the difference between £2,407 and £2,073) but I think it's the right thing to do...

Thanks for the feedback so far guys
Report yeasty April 29, 2024 3:51 PM BST
You're correct Clydebank - only 2 places on the Prem. Other divs are 3 places so Ipswich place is safe.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 29, 2024 4:16 PM BST
you are giving away place part of bets
for not very much in cash out.

Could back arsenal to win title, they are likely a shade of
value as citeh have been heavily backed all
season and folk now balancing books.

You could lay city of course

Very cheap to cover citeh top 2 on top 2 market on here
if you so desire.
Report yeasty April 29, 2024 4:27 PM BST
Thanks YHTL.

Aren't I giving away the win parts though? The place parts for 3 of them are in the bag and City are 1/10 to place so there's not a lot to give away...

By my reckoning the key fact is that Ipswich were 16/1. So their success makes a dramatic difference to the bet. I THINK (I'm def not sure!) that I'm giving away a huge amount of equity on the Ipswich part of the bet for a cashout that is highly likely to be more than I'll actually receive (given if Ipswich don't win the Championship then the max I can win from the first bet is just over £2k and the cashout is £2.4k)...
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 29, 2024 4:33 PM BST
Yep you give away both, in cash out.

So I feel the value is with the bookie as they seem to
be hoping you forget your place acca is almost certain.
Report CLYDEBANK29 April 29, 2024 6:15 PM BST
I give Ipswich a 4% chance of winning, which to my reckoning values the trebles at about £2.3k (back of the envelope job).  At 4% it's worth taking the cash out offer.  Don't shoot me if Ipswich win though.  Let the acca run just in case.  You can revisit that if Ipswich end up winning
Report CLYDEBANK29 April 29, 2024 6:18 PM BST
very well done with your selections!
Report The Dragon April 29, 2024 6:20 PM BST
yes great stuff - let them rideCool
Report CLYDEBANK29 April 29, 2024 6:24 PM BST
fwiw Leicester will have probably won the league by the time they play Blackburn.  That is factored into the current prices.  They'll shorten (against Blackburn) if that isn't the case.
Report CLYDEBANK29 April 29, 2024 6:29 PM BST
A draw guarantees Blackburn survival so should Leicester need a point - (they draw against Preston and Ipswich beat Coventry) expect the draw to shorten
Report Ell April 29, 2024 6:33 PM BST
You could always back Leicester to win tonight.
If they win the Ipswich bet is bust, if they don't the cash out should increase.
Report yeasty April 29, 2024 6:55 PM BST
Clydebank - your 18.15 post is exactly what I'm thinking. And thank you! Thanks to you too, Dragon.

Eli - I was thinking about that but I'd need to have a lot on (best part of a grand) to make it worthwhile. Also a Leicester draw would be the worst possible result in that case. Leicester could draw against Blackburn and still win the league...

Was just about to cashout the trebles and then saw Leicester drifting for tonight. Hopefully their players have been on the sauce all weekend!
Report yeasty April 29, 2024 6:56 PM BST
I'm letting the acca run no matter what
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- April 29, 2024 7:05 PM BST
Maybe a lesson here is to write out 4 separate
bets, one for each treble, then you can cash
out each bet separately in future, should you wish too.

And you will be able to see where the value is.

Good luck whatever you do.
Report yeasty April 29, 2024 7:20 PM BST
That is definitely the lesson!!

All that and I just went to cash out the trebles and it's saying cash out not available!! Offer is there but won't let me do it. I'll take that as a sign...

Thanks YHTL
Report penzance April 29, 2024 7:28 PM BST
If that's the case would be nice to see Preston turn Leicester over tonight
for your bet.
GL.
Report Ell April 29, 2024 7:46 PM BST
You wouldn't need to cover the whole bet by backing Leicester, just something to soften the blow.
Hopefully Leicester will be on the beach tonight and you get a another chance to cash in.

GL
Report Early Morning Riser April 29, 2024 9:56 PM BST
Hope you cashed out after.
Report yeasty April 29, 2024 11:08 PM BST
No, I let it run.

All on City now to give me a decent return. Have just layed City to finish in the Top 2 (£400 at 1.03) to hedge against the place portion. £2.5k total max payout now.
Report Ell April 30, 2024 5:28 PM BST
I'd have been really peed off with Preston last night, took until the 92 minute to have a shot on target.
Hopefully both teams will get relegated next season, might make a nice double.
Report Escapee April 30, 2024 10:09 PM BST
At the end of the day, when a few years have past, the memories of winning big, are worth far more in the the game of life than cashing out.
The immediate validation joy of locking in a profit, is nothing compared to the hindsight joy of having climbed Everest. It lasts a lifetime.

I hope you hold, and I hope you win. If you do, you'll be surprised at what effect it has on you 5-10-20 years down the line.

I've still got a smile on my face from something way way back in the 20th century.
Report yeasty May 1, 2024 4:40 PM BST
This is very good advice Escapee. I'm in the fortunate position that I don't need the money really (as in not to survive!) and the memories from the bet are important. Hindsight joy as you say.

I was lucky enough to land a double on Ballyburn (ante post 16/1) and Teahupoo (12/1) at Cheltenham this year. The money is long spent but I'll never forget that bet and the anticipation and excitement around it as the odds contracted as the season progressed.

If you don't mind me asking, what was your bet that makes you smile?
Report Aspro May 1, 2024 4:54 PM BST
Your post reminded me of my own bit of fortune on Vindaloo 6/1 and Benny Glow 16/1 (EW Double); a fond memory when I used to bet on horses... 90's I reckon. The strange thing about this one was that I was waiting for a bet on the final race of the day and did the double for a bit of waiting interest; both won, the latter in a nail-biting photo. The horse I was actually waiting on lost!
Report yeasty May 1, 2024 8:17 PM BST
Very nice, Aspro. Vindaloo was a cracking horse. Just looked him up - won 11 times!
Report duffy May 1, 2024 8:23 PM BST
Here's my one, Leicester 4/1, Portsmouth 9/1 Stockport 11/2

£10 free bet!!!

Laid Leicester at the weekend to level up at £2,940

Report yeasty May 1, 2024 9:07 PM BST
That's a belter, Duffy! Well done.
Report duffy May 1, 2024 9:18 PM BST
Always do a treble start of each season for a bit of interest, haven't got a clue about the lower divisions so read a couple predictions.

Funny thing is, this time last year I was thinking that Leicester might sink without trace but read that they had a very strong squad still so bunged them in.

Read that Pompeii will have one or two City kids so bunged them in.

And read that Stockport had money so bunged them in....highly technical stuffLaughLaugh
Report yeasty May 1, 2024 10:11 PM BST
Similar level of in-depth thinking to me when it comes to footy betting then!

You'll never forget that one.
Report Escapee May 5, 2024 7:30 AM BST

If you don't mind me asking, what was your bet that makes you smile?


Just winding down after a very enjoyable long Saturday night out (feck me its past 6am), I came across your question, It's triggered so many happy memories of moments, days, months and even some things that produced profit for years. The smiles your question triggered, I've reached into the back of the drinks cabinet and poured myself generous measure of the YEEEEEEEEEEEEE HAAAAAAAA brandy, only usually imbibed on days of +£1,000 (in 2018 I had to raise that to +£2,500/day, but that's a story I'm not going to divulge)

To answer your specific question, I won the 6th (or was it 5th) biggest, and then 6 days later, the 3rd biggest poker tournaments in Europe of the year (sometime in the 90's).
Bare in mind poker was a much smaller pre internet eco system then, but all the top Euro players of the time were there, I trashed them, YEEEEEEE HAAAAAA. circa £10k and £15k in a week.

There was quite a funny moment with my boss, after winning £10k Monday night and celebrating late, I got up 2.5 hours later and went to work lateCrazy after work I took loads of colleagues to the pub and continued spreading the joy, by wednesday morning I was fecked and phoned in telling my boss I'm taking the day off.
Few days later, Over the weekend I win the 2 day tournament for £15k and obviously go on another session. Mid Monday morning I surface, and much wiser than the previous win I phone my boss and tell him I'm I've won again, I'm not coming in.
Tuesday I go back to work, still a bit rough round the edges. My Boss calls me into his office, He's well p1ssed off that I have now taken 2 impromptu days off in a week and tries to give me a b0ll0cking for it, "YOU can't keep taking days off like this, if you do this again we'll have to have a strong discussion about your job" (He was never going to fire me, I was making him look great).
I Looked him straight in the eye and said "Of course, If I keep winning £25k a week we'll be talking about my job". The sudden moment of realisation on his face... priceless.

I went on to spin that up into Escapee (from 9to5) within a few years, and long after the £25k's or £250k's have lost significance, the actual moments of climbing to the top are still treasures.

If you cash in, you never get to the summit.

Report Escapee May 5, 2024 12:36 PM BST
sheeet, what a ramble, should not have posted after night outBlushBlushSad
Report s.kenbo May 5, 2024 8:32 PM BST
Some lovely wins there, Escapee.

The landlord of a local pub we used to play at won over £200k at Dusk Til Dawn about 15 years ago. It’s a good game for pitting the pros against the amateurs. I still watch Late Night Poker now and in recent years the owner of DTD has played on there, often sitting down with $1m at the table. He’s obviously done well from the place.
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